$BTC

If you see for any bearish post on here a lot of bullish comments (as well as pump with no volume, and price testing the resistance before the major news)- it is probably not a good sign.

Nobody can predict the market, but from here I expect a spike above the resistance (bull trap basically) before we are back to mid-50-s.

#BTC

The disadvantage of the rapid increase- is leaving big portion of potential buyers sidelined.

If price increases slowly and shows strength- participants are willing to join at higher price mark.

66-68K area feels like a slow turbulence zone, where sellers don’t really sell waiting for ATH, but buyers don’t really buy due to the FUD.

As the result, or we need really strong driver (such as some crazy news) to push the price through 68K resistance (50/50 possibility is BTC conference is soon with Trump and Harris speaking).

Or we need to go back to 63 or something like this to create new strong trend continuation.

I’d ignore ETF flows and $ETH as I refer to a short term price action, while these factors don’t immediately move market.

Let’s see how it plays out for $BTC

$WIF update

Narrative is pretty strong. Nice respond to $BTC move. 64K is approximately #BTC mid-range, $2+ is #wif midrange as well (ignoring the $41 candle).

Parabolic movement is very unhealthy for the market- the speed of going up at some degree determines the speed of correction, and too much of upward move is just a great way to roundtrip (not enough time to determine the shift).

It would be healthy if wif goes back to around $2, and a little bit below, however, the sentiment might change if it dips below $1.9 support.

It is important to remember that meme coin is designed to shill on buyers at any random moment, but what is buzzing has good chance to behave in a cyclical manner.

I totally understand why news are bullish on $BTC

Are we heading to the moon?

Well, it’s been 7 hours in a row that price closes below previous long-time support (60200) that turned into a strong resistance now.

There is pretty significant CME gap is well, which tends to close quite quickly, and it is around 57+K.

Despite that I was waiting for this level to sell, I don’t do it, as technical and fundamental overviews clash here.

If the bearish outlook continues - it might be there for another couple of months, with targets as low as 42K (plus minus).

If price crosses 60K- first trouble area is at 63K. With target of 80-90 that’s still good R:R

#BTC

I developed two AI models to predict $BTC price. I don’t like the accuracy at the moment, but I know how to get it better.

Not relying on it or anything, but seems to be fun.

My model thinks the closure price today will be 58400

$BTC update (cannot count anymore which one by number is that)

52K- important level on a weekly timeframe. I assume bounce from that one.

60K- is the most crucial one to watch. It was support. Support has a tendency to reverse into a resistance. Can be a risky but otherwise solid sell point if price does not cross it quickly.

If price confidently crosses it - good buying point (tricky shit)

47-39K are some important levels to place buy stinky bids on (done)

Levels 54-58 are a turbulence zone where I managed to profit just by my tendency to do trade overmanagement- I’d recommend to the sane people to stay away.

Stay hydrated - that’s the most important thing to do during the summer

$BTC Update No 754266367

I assume we will go higher from here till some plausible resistance (previous support) of one of high timeframes.

I plan to sell from there.

I might be wrong, indeed. But keeping 1:2 r/r ratio makes me above the waters despite the market random behavior.

I also put buy orders way below current level as those stinky bids make it impossible to shake you out of the trade.

Something very important for those who are new to this. Crypto is ONE market. All alts are reflection of the #BTC behavior. If you think you have found a gem that is not sensitive to the BTC sentiment- you are simply looking at the delayed action.

$BTC update. Part 34557

Support looks bad. Retouched multiple times with no significant bounce.

That means there are no buyers at this level anymore. From another perspective- price also does not crash with good solid move through 60K.

Imagine yourself selling from 64K, and managing your trade in 1H-15M, you’d close the trade with all the higher highs and wicks this TF is printing now.

Leave alone the FUD. Do you have clear biases when you look at the chart? Like can you tell: market is surely bearish or market is surely bullish?

Or do you feel like lower time frame flips your biases? And higher TF is rather controversial?

Generally it is still 60-70 range. Maybe downside direction is a bit more likely. For sure there is no clear bottom signal.

I hodl BTC and gamble on nothing ATM. As we break one side or another, I’ll take an action

$BTC

If we will close today above 65.5K (approximately)- there is a chance that it was the bottom.

$FTM showed serious weakness. There is a problem of liquidity in alts, a lot of coins, a lot of shitcoins on Solana that shift money away from tech alts with at least some fundamentals. Thin capital distribution is a problem.

Meme coins seems to be stronger performing narrative in this market.

We are at the mid range for $BTC at the moment which is approximately 65-70k.

Normally big economic news such as CPI, Jobless Claims, PPI and interest rate decisions create ranges.

The bottom of the range is at 58-60K. We might well revisit the level.

Usually there is no much action on weekends, and Monday might set the further movement.

Many alts are near the oversold area on multiple TF, including some with proper fundamentals such as $FTM , but there are no signs of the price bottoming, and it is early to buy, especially with leverage.

My X timeline looks we are on a verge of a complete disaster, and usually people gets the most depressed when market is about to bottom.

Stay strong

Super optimistic prop companies traders are quite bearish atm.

$BTC was rejected from the top two times, and yesterday demonstrated surprising weakness, falling below monthly support.

Today there are two major events: CPI and Interest Rate Decision. Initially both give mixed signal, CPI is expected to be lower than the previous one, while IR should remain unchanged.

The question is how market will react to that, and interpret these results for the investors risk appetite.

I have placed very small sell position (I have’t sell for ages on this market as I prefer not to go against the trend) on one of alts, but if I were to advise anyone else- I’d suggest to de-risk the account or go very small size, keeping in mind that you will never see this money again.

Do not rash to buy dips as well, it will be clear later on what the actual dip is.

It is healthy that greed index went down a little bit.

What I do not like- flat graph after the dump in $BTC , and bearish wages or arks in alts.

I assume (I’m no God to see the future- use your own intuition and brain) there will be another strong move down, likely in 3-4 hours from now.

Timing is tricky in markets, so it might happen earlier/later.

However, if you think you are in the same conditions as they were in a pre-dump market - you are not. Volatility still can be crazy. Be careful. De-risk or use strategy that takes this move into consideration

$BTC update

What we see today is very similar to what happened on April 12-th and 13-th

Which makes it quite possible that tomorrow there will be another blood bath event.

I’d suggest to de-risk your positions or put orders for deeper dips.

It is better to miss, open really small order than to FOMO and lose everything you made before Post where I discussed the event previously

It is very likely we’ll witness another dump soon. Alts will go down by 20-25%

$BTC has no strong reason at least atm to rise. 65-69 can easily happen

Manipulated alts like $JASMY with their fake partnership with Apple, $NOT that was driven by exchanges too fast to just start selling from top, and some others will go more than 25% down.

Watch your positions

No idea why I don’t run into multiple posts about it, but $JASMY rumored to partner with Apple, and has rallied since then.

Catch the dip and don’t fomo.

Important update: rumors are fall. Such instruments can go down as waterfall - no solid base for the growth

Don’t measure movement in crypto by purely crypto types of analysis.

It is gone. As Black Rock and major funds joined the market, it behaves now very much as any other dollar alternative.

Today’s $BTC move was triggered by the unemployment rate in the USA. Same trigger that moves gold. Or any other « safe » and « deflationary » asset.

We are entering an era of a traditional market for the #BTC . There is a very good chance this asset will drive more and more attention as traditional markets are on a verge of a crash (such as heavily refinanced real estate)

I DCA heavily on each dip. But that’s not an investment advice. Just my personal choice

$AGIX update:

« We are excited to announce that the supermajority of AGIX token holders has approved the Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) Alliance proposal. »

So as we expected, there most likely will be a merge into ASI coin.

I’d say recommend price for $AGIX purchase is around $0.5, and while it sounds unlikely to go back that low, if you don’t keep it since that price, I personally would not jump in till the #BTC correction is over.

And BTC stabilization or clear direction is only possible after the halving occurs.

As for the $FET in which AGIX and $OCEAN will be merged, it’s « safe » purchase price is around 0.86. However, not necessarily ASI behavior will copy FET performance.

Update on SingularityNET ($AGIX ):

“We are excited to announce a partnership with Yunity to generate over $1 billion USD in funding for beneficial AI and deep tech solutions for humanity.”

Yunity is a venture capital. Singularity is a relatively small AI dev company with ambitions vision.

Do not misunderstand it, the funds won’t go directly to support Singularity, their CEO just joins forces with Venture Capital to rise enough money that can support numerous startups developing AI, Web3, Robotics, Spatial Computing, and Quantum tech.

But what it says from the trading perspective, is that there will be much more money poured into blockchain and #AI narrative will most likely continue gaining strength.

Few takes on the current market situation after that painful drop📉

#BTC is very likely to go lower. And here is why: RSI (which indicates whether asset is oversold or overbought) on a daily graph is at 49 level. That means, that despite the drop, it is comfortable price for the asset given its recent behavior.

Very sharp drop of alts is a good hint on the overall market sentiment. The reason why I read that as a bearish signal is because most of the altcoins are just the reflection of the public expectation from the $BTC .

From the fundamental perspective, we see more and more whale transfers, primarily of $ETH from their cold wallets to the exchanges. Usually this signifies an intention to sell.

ETH and BTC are basically twin brothers, massive ETH selling means an expectation of BTC to drop more.

There are however mixed forces from the economic perspective. Increasing uncertainty driven by the situation on the Middle East can push more people to invest into digital assets.

Halving, from another hand, can result in selling in a short term.

I don’t give financial advices, but my personal strategy is to keep money in stable coins with decent APR during this turbulence, and wait for the market to stabilize. Margin trading is a great way to liquidation at this stage.

Hopefully you find it useful

Thanks to @cryptosarcasm for the inspiration

Few points I feel are important to stress regarding #BTC :

1. This is very bad entry point now, whether you believe that it will crash or soar.

Further growth is doubtful as price could not surpass 70+K levels for already quite a long time. Buying next to ATH is too optimistic.

There is no any strong selling signal as well at this moment.

Sale is below 62000, while for the strong buy it is above 73000.

2. Same is true for alts - they follow $BTC and thus to predict direction now is very challenging

3. Interest rates won’t affect BTC at all. If there is a cut from 15% to 10% - yes, it will affect the investor’s choice. 0.2% won’t. I also assume that people who buy BTC chasing high returns given all the risks, will ignore bank savings as an alternative option. So no capital redistribution here.

4. Halving consequences are unpredictable as well. Two forces here: one- decrease in supply and overall optimism. Second - possibility of massive selling (according to JP Morgan, I doubt it) from miners.

5. Most likely post-halving growth, if all the historical conditions repeat themselves, will be only 150-170% from the pre-halving price.

Hopefully you find it useful