LIVELab4crypto
@Lab4crypto
Academic experts in Blockchain, Crypto & Al. We analyze the Crypto industry with rigorous & high-quality math-based analysis📊. Twitter: @Lab4crypto_
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📉 Bitcoin addresses holding 1K-10K #BTC have shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin price movements. Since May 28th, these entities have offloaded some BTC. It’s crucial to monitor if this trend continues or if a decoupling occurs.
Is Bitcoin's Dip a Buying Opportunity? Analyzing Key Metrics.
Here Are My 2 Sats
Bitcoin's recent price drop has undoubtedly stirred up market anxiety. Bears are predicting that BTC could fall to $50K in the coming weeks, citing miner capitulation, MT.Gox repayments, and the Ethereum spot ETF stealing Bitcoin's spotlight. However, a closer look at the charts reveals a different narrative. The data suggests that Bitcoin's situation may not be as bearish as some fear.
1. Bull Market Support Band
Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin has managed to hold its bull market support band, with the 21-week EMA ($61.29K) remaining intact. This level is crucial for maintaining the bull market and seeing Bitcoin bounce above it in the coming days would be a positive sign.
2. Bitcoin FOMO Level
The Bitcoin FOMO Level, currently at $60.27K, is a significant support marker. This level is defined as the price point Bitcoin has exceeded for only 3% of its lifespan. Historically, surpassing this level has led to price increases of 200%-400%. With Bitcoin still above this level, it remains a key point to watch.
3. Bitcoin Risk
Bitcoin Risk is at a medium level, not signalling an imminent drop. Although risk has been rising since June 13th, the current level is not alarming. As this metric changes daily based on on-chain and off-chain data, continuous monitoring is essential.
4. Short-Term Bubble Risk
Bitcoin’s Short-Term Bubble Risk has entered the low-risk region (less than 1), indicating that Bitcoin is not over-extended from its 20-week SMA. The last time we were in this region was on September 23, when BTC was priced at $26K.
While there are many more metrics to analyze, the key takeaway is clear: BTC’s on-chain and off-chain data do not suggest that it is overextended. Unless these critical levels are broken, the $59K-$60K range could present a buying opportunity (not financial advice).
A quick check on Google Trends reveals that retail investors have yet to flock to the crypto market. With upcoming quantitative easing and elections, along with the likelihood of continued "money printing" to address US debt, the case for Bitcoin only strengthens.
Note: For value investors, Bitcoin is still $10K below its fair value, which is estimated at $70.6K (Bitcoin Power Law)
The crypto market is highly dynamic and requires daily monitoring.
Bitcoin's recent price drop has undoubtedly stirred up market anxiety. Bears are predicting that BTC could fall to $50K in the coming weeks, citing miner capitulation, MT.Gox repayments, and the Ethereum spot ETF stealing Bitcoin's spotlight. However, a closer look at the charts reveals a different narrative. The data suggests that Bitcoin's situation may not be as bearish as some fear.
1. Bull Market Support Band
Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin has managed to hold its bull market support band, with the 21-week EMA ($61.29K) remaining intact. This level is crucial for maintaining the bull market and seeing Bitcoin bounce above it in the coming days would be a positive sign.
2. Bitcoin FOMO Level
The Bitcoin FOMO Level, currently at $60.27K, is a significant support marker. This level is defined as the price point Bitcoin has exceeded for only 3% of its lifespan. Historically, surpassing this level has led to price increases of 200%-400%. With Bitcoin still above this level, it remains a key point to watch.
3. Bitcoin Risk
Bitcoin Risk is at a medium level, not signalling an imminent drop. Although risk has been rising since June 13th, the current level is not alarming. As this metric changes daily based on on-chain and off-chain data, continuous monitoring is essential.
4. Short-Term Bubble Risk
Bitcoin’s Short-Term Bubble Risk has entered the low-risk region (less than 1), indicating that Bitcoin is not over-extended from its 20-week SMA. The last time we were in this region was on September 23, when BTC was priced at $26K.
While there are many more metrics to analyze, the key takeaway is clear: BTC’s on-chain and off-chain data do not suggest that it is overextended. Unless these critical levels are broken, the $59K-$60K range could present a buying opportunity (not financial advice).
A quick check on Google Trends reveals that retail investors have yet to flock to the crypto market. With upcoming quantitative easing and elections, along with the likelihood of continued "money printing" to address US debt, the case for Bitcoin only strengthens.
Note: For value investors, Bitcoin is still $10K below its fair value, which is estimated at $70.6K (Bitcoin Power Law)
The crypto market is highly dynamic and requires daily monitoring.
Will #Bitcoin Support Band Hold ($61K)?
Yes, bounce soon
56%
No, $57K next
44%
187 votes • Voting closed
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a -991 BTC outflow, totalling about -$64.33 million USD. This streak of eight straight days of outflows has intensified selling pressure on Bitcoin, contributing to its recent downtrend.
Solana's FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) level acted as resistance three times since March. A successful break above this level ($194) usually leads to a 200%- 400% price increase.👀$SOL
The altcoin season index points out that we entered a Bitcoin season. Altcoins are continually underperforming Bitcoin , and this behaviour is expected to continue until the end of rate cuts. Always manage your risk.
The recent Ethereum price surge might have a surprising story behind it.
Who pumped ETH, retail or institutional investors?
Answer: Whales or institutions.
Addresses holding between 10-100, 100-1K, 1K-10K Ethereum continue to decline, while addresses holding 10K-100K ETH (whales or institutions?) are on the rise post-spot ETF approval. This trend could be bad news for ETH as retail investors are still not interested in ETH, but on the other hand, the interest from institutions may bring retail interest back into the Ethereum ecosystem. ETH spot ETF inflows (when trade starts) will help us know more.
Who pumped ETH, retail or institutional investors?
Answer: Whales or institutions.
Addresses holding between 10-100, 100-1K, 1K-10K Ethereum continue to decline, while addresses holding 10K-100K ETH (whales or institutions?) are on the rise post-spot ETF approval. This trend could be bad news for ETH as retail investors are still not interested in ETH, but on the other hand, the interest from institutions may bring retail interest back into the Ethereum ecosystem. ETH spot ETF inflows (when trade starts) will help us know more.
Which crypto holds the largest position in your portfolio?
Bitcoin
50%
Ethereum
0%
Solana
50%
Cardano
0%
2 votes • Voting closed
Altcoin growth occurs because Bitcoin allows it.
"The Bitcoin effect explained"
Bitcoin's dominance (around 50%) in the cryptocurrency market is undeniable. While many altcoins emerge with inflated valuations and fleeting popularity, Bitcoin exhibits a sustained, power-law-driven growth pattern (we know that thanks to Giovanni). This raises the question: What trajectory does the total crypto market cap (Bitcoin & Altcoins) follow?
I wanted to test if the performance of altcoins changes the already-established trend that Bitcoin exhibits in the market, positively or negatively.
By analysing the total crypto market cap data from the inception of the first cryptocurrency (BTC) until today, we see that it also follows a power law (power of 6.83). This indicates that the TMC is growing faster than BTC, and that, in my opinion, is because the total crypto market is standing on the shoulder of a giant "Bitcoin." I changed the quote of Isaac Newton a bit.
I just tested that, so more research is needed on Bitcoin's effect on the TMC. I get the feeling, though, that the gains we see on the altcoin market are due to the fact that we are sitting on Bitcoin's trend, and "good" and "bad" projects are benefiting from it. At least for now, it seems a net positive
"The Bitcoin effect explained"
Bitcoin's dominance (around 50%) in the cryptocurrency market is undeniable. While many altcoins emerge with inflated valuations and fleeting popularity, Bitcoin exhibits a sustained, power-law-driven growth pattern (we know that thanks to Giovanni). This raises the question: What trajectory does the total crypto market cap (Bitcoin & Altcoins) follow?
I wanted to test if the performance of altcoins changes the already-established trend that Bitcoin exhibits in the market, positively or negatively.
By analysing the total crypto market cap data from the inception of the first cryptocurrency (BTC) until today, we see that it also follows a power law (power of 6.83). This indicates that the TMC is growing faster than BTC, and that, in my opinion, is because the total crypto market is standing on the shoulder of a giant "Bitcoin." I changed the quote of Isaac Newton a bit.
I just tested that, so more research is needed on Bitcoin's effect on the TMC. I get the feeling, though, that the gains we see on the altcoin market are due to the fact that we are sitting on Bitcoin's trend, and "good" and "bad" projects are benefiting from it. At least for now, it seems a net positive
Currently, 91.36% of Bitcoin and 91.22% of Ethereum supply is in profit. High-profit levels usually lead to increased selling pressure as investors look to cash in gains. However, despite this, both cryptocurrencies have remained relatively stable over the past month, especially Bitcoin. This stability suggests that holders are not keen to sell at current prices. $BTC $ETH
📉Despite a dip in people's interest levels, resembling 2022 lows, the total crypto market cap is just 13.4% below its fair value.
💎With Quantitative Easing on the horizon for 2025, the future looks bright! Projection hints at least a $9.44 trillion crypto market cap (+1SD).
💎With Quantitative Easing on the horizon for 2025, the future looks bright! Projection hints at least a $9.44 trillion crypto market cap (+1SD).
Analyzing Bitcoin 's monthly returns since 2010, May's track record stands at 8 green closes vs. 5 red. Do you think this May will be "sell in May and walk away?"$BTC
Being able to discuss the significance of leveraging data for informed decision-making and trend identification was truly enriching. The Global Blockchain Show in Dubai was impeccably organized, featuring stellar speakers who delivered immense value to all attendees.
Global Blockchain Show in Dubai, day 2. Watch my fireside chat at 11:30 if you are here.
🚀Exciting news! Lab4Crypto is heading to the Global Blockchain Show in Dubai! & We're thrilled to announce that we've been invited as speakers at one of the biggest blockchain events worldwide! As a token of our appreciation for your incredible support, we're giving away 5 exclusive business passes valued at $499 each for this remarkable event!
To enter:
1. Follow @lab4crypto
2. Like & comment on this post
Hurry, don't miss your chance to join us and meet iconic cryptocurrency enthusiasts in Dubai!
To enter:
1. Follow @lab4crypto
2. Like & comment on this post
Hurry, don't miss your chance to join us and meet iconic cryptocurrency enthusiasts in Dubai!
Since June 2023, Solana has consistently outperformed Bitcoin, with 1 BTC dropping from 1880 SOL to 366 SOL. This underscores the significance of seeking altcoins that outperform Bitcoin, as their chances of performing extremely well in a bull run are high.$BTC $SOL
