This chart represents the "asopr" (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator, illustrated with a 200-day moving average, which shows the extent to which investors in the Bitcoin market are realizing profits.

When the asopr indicator rises above 1, it generally occurs during market uptrends, indicating a higher likelihood of continued price increases. However, historical data suggests that when this indicator approaches 1.08, Bitcoin prices tend to enter a correction phase. Considering past instances where similar patterns were observed, there is a possibility that the current situation might follow the same trend.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

The on-chain data UTXO Age bands (realized price) highlighting the approximate costs for short-term investors points to two significant resistances.

🔴 1-4 week UTXO --> 69K

🔴 1-3 month UTXO --> 66K

Short-term investors turning profitable means they might get excited and start talking about Bitcoin to people around them. This leads to new investors entering the market, which is one of the most crucial foundations for a bull rally. That's why I'm following this 2 resistance level closely.

Note: The levels mentioned above are approximate; you can find the details in the visual.

Written by burakkesmeci

Negative signals from the net flow side are needed to signal a reversal by bitcoin. It makes no sense to say that a reversal is coming without btc outflows from exchanges.

At the moment there are neither inflows nor outflows to inform about the direction of the market.

The last netflow signal came on June 11. and btc experienced a serial rise from 66k to 70k.

Written by KriptoBaykusV2

A few hours ago, MicroStrategy announced the acquisition of 11,931 BTC for approximately $786 million. This purchase comes on the heels of their offering Convertible Senior Notes to investors.

This $786 million buy marks MicroStrategy's third-largest acquisition, with only the purchases on February 24, 2021, and March 10, 2024, involving a higher dollar value.

With this latest acquisition, MicroStrategy's total bitcoin holdings have reached 226,331 BTC, solidifying their status as one of the largest whales in the bitcoin market.

Currently, their unrealized profits stand at an impressive $6.3 billion.

For more details and to track MicroStrategy's metrics, visit the CryptoQuant Dashboard through the link below.

Written by maartunn

The N-HiTS (Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series) model is a deep learning framework designed for time series forecasting. It decomposes input data into hierarchical levels, each capturing different temporal patterns. Through an interpolation mechanism, the model generates intermediate forecasts, which are recursively refined for accuracy. This approach allows N-HiTS to effectively capture both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends.

In this study, I used the N-HiTS model to predict the price of Bitcoin for the next 30 days using Onchain data from the past 180 days. The modeling and training were conducted using the PyTorch, PyTorch Lightning, and PyTorch Forecasting libraries.

Figure A shows the predicted and actual prices after the training process for the validation data, while Figure B shows the forecast for the next 30 days.The training data includes 376 features taken from the cryptoquant platform.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Recently, long-term holders have started moving their TONs again. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator has been showing this trend over the past few days. On June 12th, 633 million TON were moved, signaling a possible distribution phase in the market. This behavior could indicate that the price of $8 USD is approaching a top for TONCOIN.

The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator takes the number of coins that have moved on-chain at a particular time and multiplies that value by the number of days since those coins were last moved. When large amounts of older coins start moving, it can be a sign that long-term holders are beginning to take profits, preparing the market for a potential price correction.

Stay alert to upcoming movements and use the CDD as part of your analysis to make informed decisions in the TONCOIN market.

Written by joaowedson

The Ethereum OI data has dropped from $13 billion to $11.5 billion, giving the market some breathing space.

Open Interest represents the total of long and short positions in the market. The higher it is, the more heated we can assume the market to be.

The Ethereum OI data peaked at around $9.5 billion during the previous bull run when the price reached an all-time high of $4,891 in 2021. However, despite not having refreshed its ATH in the current bull cycle, Ethereum, the leader of altcoins, saw its OI data reach $13 billion, setting a new record. This led to an overheating of the market specifically for Ethereum.

After such a substantial number of leveraged positions were opened, liquidations followed without delay.

Since June 5, 2024, when Ethereum OI data reached its ATH, approximately $400 million worth of Ethereum positions have been liquidated till then. Long positions exceeding $285 million were liquidated. On thje other hand, $113 million worth of short positions were liquidated over the same period.

Following this significant increase in OI data, a sharp correction ensued, with OI data pulling back by $1.5 billion to $11.5 billion.

Whether this pullback in OI data is sufficient will be determined by market makers, but we can say that the boiling water has cooled down a bit.

Thank you for reading.

Written by burakkesmeci

We can see that 6,000 bitcoins have exited from derivative exchanges. This potential exit is likely to reduce volatility. It also indicates that we may be near a potential reversal zone. The exits have come from Binance and OKX.

Written by XBTManager

Tracking demand for Bitcoin and digital assets is not easy, but one of the most useful ways is through the amount of money allocated to stablecoins.

Tether's synthetic dollar remains the main stablecoin in the market and has a high correlation with market sentiment.

Periods where market capitalization and circulating supply increase signal moments of interest in allocation to digital assets.

On the other hand, moments of reduction in market capitalization indicate that institutional investors are withdrawing money from the crypto market.

It will be important to see a new wave of new money entering via stablecoins to have a clearer signal of an upward trend in Bitcoin and digital assets.

Written by caueconomy

Use Case: UTXO Band [1D ~ 1W] as a Trendline

Early May (Green Box):

A significant upward trend begins as the market price crosses above the realized price. This indicates a bullish market where Bitcoin is trading above the average cost basis of holders. The green box highlights the breakout above the realized price, which often signifies a buying opportunity.

Mid-June (Red Box):

A bearish reversal is indicated as the market price starts to drop while still being above the realized price. The red box highlights the peak before the decline starts.

Analysis:

Bullish Signals:

When the market price crosses and stays above the realized price, it typically suggests that market sentiment is positive and investors are in profit. This can attract more buying, pushing the price higher.

Bearish Signals:

Conversely, when the market price drops and heads towards the realized price, it indicates a potential market correction or bearish sentiment. Investors might be looking to sell or realize their profits, leading to further declines.

Conclusion:

Understanding these trends can help investors make informed decisions about buying or selling Bitcoin. The current decline towards the realized price could be a warning sign of further bearish momentum unless a reversal is observed.

Written by Amr Taha

The Open Network (TON) is currently one of the most popular blockchains. Various on-chain metrics are skyrocketing, highlighting the steady growth of The Open Network.

To provide some perspective, here are two charts:

1. TON Transfer Volume USD

This chart shows the total value of transactions conducted through the TON-Blockchain, measured in USD. The transfer volume ranges between $5.0B ~ $10.0B. For comparison, Bitcoin's average daily transfer volume is around $50.0B. This indicates that TON has already achieved between 10% Bitcoin's capacity, which is impressive for a coin that is only four years old.

2. Holder Count

This chart displays the number of on-chain token holders of TON. Currently, there are 32 million holders, up from 2.9 million a year ago. This represents a 10x increase in just one year, underscoring the growing popularity of the TON-Token.

Written by maartunn

#Ethereum Accumulation shows no signs of stopping even as the market tumbles 👀

#eth #ethetf #crypto

Written by elcryptotavo

Summary: After the Miner Position Index (MPI), which measures implied miner sell pressure, reaches its cycle low— likely below 1.4— the bull run resumes. This process can take many months.

Post-halving is a challenging time for miners, as their struggle to adapt to lower rewards can produce volatility in miner flows, negatively impacting prices on shorter timeframes, which can produce or aggravate mid-cycle slumps.

Once the MPI stabilizes post-halving and reaches its lowest historic range (below 1.4), it correlates with the end of the mid-cycle slump. This is typically followed by a gradual, then parabolic, second half of the bull cycle.

Of course its not an immediate up-only, and other factors play into the timing and duration.

Also consider that Bitcoin is in the midst of a prolonged consolidation period post-halving, and such large consolidations typically lead to significant expansions.

We also observe inflation data declining at the end of a rate cycle, coinciding with a U.S. election where, for the first time, crypto is an increasingly bullish topic, and U.S. ETFs for BTC and ETH are finally approved.

All of these factors suggest an incredible and rare confluence of bullish conditions.

Written by Papi

The MVRV indicator is a metric for assessing whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued. It is calculated by dividing the market value by the realized value.

The current level of the MVRV can provide important insights into the health of the market and possible BTC price movements.

When the MVRV is around 2 to 3 it indicates that the market is relatively healthy and the price of Bitcoin is in line with the value perceived by investors.

This level may suggest stability with less propensity to large price swings.

The impact of the current MVRV level on the price of Bitcoin depends on a number of additional factors, including how investors perceive the current price in relation to the historical post-Halving data.

In addition, global macroeconomic factors can influence the behavior of risk asset investors by triggering trends.

With the MVRV currently at a moderate value, close to the Distribution range, this could indicate that the market is in a neutral phase, with the potential for upward or downward movements depending on other macroeconomic factors and market news

Therefore, the current phase is Neutral with low volatility and a tendency for a big move to follow.

The trend preceding the price is upwards, which indicates a likelihood of following through on the bullish trend by reaching the extreme Distribution range.

Written by G a a h

1. Miner Capitulation

Lower Miner Revenues: Miner revenues have dropped by 55%, forcing miners to sell more Bitcoin to cover costs.

Increased Transfers to Exchanges: More Bitcoin is being moved from miners' wallets to exchanges, which can drive prices down, often indicating they are selling.

2. Lack of New USDT and USDC Issuance

The stablecoin market isn't seeing new issuances, meaning less new money is entering the crypto market. This can reduce liquidity and increase price volatility.

3. Outflows from ETF Funds

Significant withdrawals from major ETFs like Fidelity and Grayscale are creating selling pressure on Bitcoin. For example, Fidelity saw an outflow of over 81,000 BTC on June 17th.

🔹 Fear Among Short-Term Investors

Short-term investors (holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days) are selling off due to these pressures, fearing further price drops.

🔹 Key Points:

Outflows from ETFs and miners selling their Bitcoin are contributing to price drops.

Stablecoins like USDT and USDC aren't being issued as much, leading to less market liquidity.

Despite the current fear and selling, the average realized price for short-term holders, around $62,400, is a strong support level in bull markets.

🔹 Conclusion and Forecast for the Near Future:

Historical trends suggest that periods of sustained low miner revenues combined with a high hashrate can indicate a potential market bottom. This scenario often points towards possible stabilization or a market rebound. While current conditions are causing fear and selling among short-term investors, the strong support level of around $62,400 for short-term holders' average realized price could help stabilize prices in the near term. However, new inflows, especially from stablecoins, and reduced selling pressure from miners and ETFs will be critical for a sustainable recovery.

Written by IT Tech

Due to recent news involving the SEC, OI(Open Interest) in XRP has surged compared to other cryptocurrencies, which is reflected in the significant increase in open interest shown in the chart.

This trend suggests that as open interest rises alongside price, investors are opening more positions with the expectation of XRP's price increase. This heightened interest indicates that more trading activity is occurring with XRP.

However, in such a scenario, it is crucial to monitor market volatility closely and prioritize risk management. As open interest increases along with the price, this could reflect investor expectations and actions, but it could also bring about sudden market fluctuations, so caution is necessary.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

📌 Short-Term Holder: Let's examine the realized price (RP) of Short-Term Holders (STH) by reflecting their share of the realized cap. The cohort from 0 days to 6 months is included in this, accounting for 54.5% of the total cap.

📃 The 0 days to 1 week cohort represents 5.3% and is excluded from the data due to the minimal difference from the spot price. The 1 week to 6 months cohort represents 49.17%.

☑️ The weighted average value reflecting their share is $62.7k. This is an increase from $61.5k a month ago. The difference between STH-RP and the current price ($65.8k) is only 5%.

The recent 1-week BTC decline rate was about 6%. If it falls an additional -5%, it will meet the STH-RP.

Since STHs account for more than 50% of the market share, their RP is likely to act as a strong support/resistance zone.

The 3-month to 6-month cohort share has reached 20%. A significant number of STHs who bought during the March rally have not yet exited the market.

Considering the realized cap of STHs is greater than that of LTHs, it suggests significant turnover occurred between March and June.

Written by Yonsei_dent

In recent days, Toncoin (TON) has reached a new all-time high, highlighting an impressive growth. Since January 2024, the cryptocurrency has seen an increase of over 300%, with prices hitting new highs since March 2024.

However, despite this strong performance, the 90-day percentage return is declining, which may indicate a possible trend reversal in the coming weeks. The lack of new price momentum could trigger a sell-off, affecting TON's future trajectory.

🚨 Stay alert to market movements and consider the signs of a potential price correction.

Written by joaowedson

Currently in a downtrend as tether supply declines; 1d-1w is the break-even point for high prices is one of the selling pressures.

1m-3m supports the price. It is safe to assume that this is the area where new purchases are being made due to the large Stablecoins issue in mid-April.

However, the fact that it has been touched many times means that it is eating liquidity = it could be selling. It is also necessary to anticipate a future move out of this area.

Study-Realized Price:

Step 1: Understanding UTXO

Bitcoin transactions are based on the UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) model; UTXOs record the amount and timestamp of the last time bitcoins were moved.

Step 2: Calculate the acquisition price of each UTXO

To find out the acquisition price of each UTXO, check the price of the bitcoin when it was last moved. This will give you the price at which the bitcoin was last traded.

Step 3: Calculate the current value of each UTXO

Next, calculate the current value of each UTXO. This is calculated by multiplying the acquisition price of the UTXO by its quantity.

Step 4: Calculate the realised cap for the entire network

Sum the current value of all UTXOs to calculate the Realised Cap for the entire network.

Step 5: Calculate the Realised Price

Finally, divide the Realised Cap by the current total supply to obtain the Realised Price.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Indicators not to go against the flow.

Currently on a downward trend since the beginning of the month of June, but a slight decrease in the long term; may be considered an EU-related story.

Written by Crypto_Lion