Will retail traders influence the price of Bitcoin and can they push the price above $70,000?
Bitcoin prices remained trapped below the $70,000 level for a long time, as all attempts to cross this barrier failed, and Bitcoin was unable to maintain any sustained upward momentum.
What is interesting is the revelation that the retail audience has not entered the market in a big way yet.
Absence of retail traders from the crypto market:
According to a recent analysis from CryptoQuant, the current Bitcoin market cycle has not reached the euphoric peak that characterized the peaks of previous cycles.
In these previous cycles, a notable feature was the dominance of cryptocurrencies held for less than three months, indicating that long-term holders of cryptocurrencies had already made their profits.
This leaves the market at the mercy of new traders and speculators, which usually results in higher volatility.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin held for less than three months makes up only about 35% of the realized value, a level that signals the early stages of previous bull markets.
According to CryptoQuant, this indicates that the market has not yet reached the extreme levels of euphoria that usually precede price peaks.
The measure of short-term profits generated among holders of the coin, known as SOPR, has not yet reached the historical peaks seen at previous session peaks.
The current market structure indicates that the largest share remains concentrated in the hands of long-term asset holders, who provide a strong support base for the price.
This situation represents a positive aspect in a market that is considered somewhat quiet, as the scarcity of asset holders in the short term reduces the possibility of a rapid turn into a bear market.
Therefore, there is still potential for a significant price rally before reaching the top of the current cycle.
Despite indications of additional upside potential, Bitcoin holders expressed concerns, as the market witnessed the largest decline in the number of wallets in three days, which coincided with a decline in the price.
According to the Santiment report, this decline may prompt traders to liquidate their holdings due to fear of additional price declines.
Based on these data, the price of Bitcoin is still in a complicated situation, as the absence of sufficient movements from retail traders could prevent it from crossing the $70,000 barrier easily, despite the strong support structure provided by long-term holders of the asset.
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