Wall Street strategy teams are releasing their well-informed projections of the S&P 500's final position at the end of 2024 as December approaches. Although the index was initially expected to rise, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have expressed concerns about the index's path.
These projections provide an understanding of how these teams are weighing known knowns, known unknowns, and other information at their disposal while also taking into account the possibility of future revelations of unknown unknowns, tail risks, black swans, and investors. The Federal Reserve forecasts, which are produced by Wall Street's economics teams, are regarded as more important than the S&P 500 strategist projections. The Fed's possible rate cuts, slowing inflation, and the development of consumer resilience are the main topics of discussion right now.
The worst beginner error in investing, according to DataTrek's Nick Colas, is thinking that the economy and stock market move in unison. This is something that many investors have discovered the hard way. The emphasis should be on 2024 returns rather than a quarter or two of equity market performance, he says, adding that equities look forward and that a slight recession could temporarily depress stock prices.