Bitcoin options positioning suggests a rise in the price of digital gold.
Macroeconomic factors contribute to the upward trend.
Ethereum options expectations are less optimistic.
The ratio of call and put options positions on Bitcoin indicates traders' expectation of a spot price between $70,000 and $100,000 by the end of 2024. CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole reports this.
The quotes of the leading cryptocurrency have returned to levels above $63,000 amid the Fed's key rate retention. Disappointing data on US nonfarm payrolls contributed to the recovery of digital gold, noted an expert.
"We are witnessing some bullish movement in volatility and rates following the turnaround rebound on Friday and over the weekend. Calls have become more expensive than puts, and there is demand for the former with strikes in September ranging from $75,000 to $100,000," said QCP Capital in a report.
Paradigm experts confirmed the above conclusions, noting market participants' anticipation of growth. For example, one trader closed a call position with a $200,000 strike price on March 25th and opened a contract with a $85,000 strike price expiring in July.
According to Deribit, traders have opened record positions of $688 million with a strike price of $100,000 and various expiration dates. This is the largest volume of options in terms of price levels on the exchange.
Analytics are optimistic about BTC
Based on fundamental indicators and technical indicators, experts express confidence in the prospects of the leading cryptocurrency.
"Bitcoin continues to be supported by the current electoral cycle in the US and deficit financing. Therefore, we have adjusted our 'critical level' from $68,300 to $62,000 in our May 3rd report. Above this mark, the market remains bullish," wrote 10X Research.
Swissblock Insights noted that the dollar index (DXY) is in a defensive position, determined by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell.
As experts pointed out, the value of the DXY decreased by 1.2%, historically favoring risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
"The deterioration in the dollar's position is likely to continue until economic data supports this trend and Fed officials begin to oppose Powell's position. The labor market shows signs of weakness, but the most aggressive voices within the regulator may push for maintaining high rates for a long time, which could affect the movement of the US currency," specialists noted.
Ledn Investment Director John Glover, based on Elliott wave theory, predicted an increase in the leading cryptocurrency to $92,000. Ralph Elliott, the concept's author, visually highlighted trends in the stock market in five stages. If the first, third, and fifth phases represent waves representing the main trend, then the second and fourth demonstrate temporary retracements.
"BTC price movement continues to follow my expected path for the fourth wave, as seen on the chart. Although the drop to $56,000 may have completed the correction, I still expect to see the price at $52,000-55,000 before the stage is completed," the analyst believes.
Implied volatility of #Ethereum has increased
According to analysts, the degree of uncertainty about the future price of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is higher than that of Bitcoin in terms of implied volatility (IV).
According to The Block's dashboard, Bitcoin's IV dropped from 72% to 55% after the halving. Ether's decline in the metric was not as significant, from 76% to 65%.
At Bitfinex, traders noted uncertainty about Ethereum options due to the summer lull in the market.
According to QCP Capital, traders' positive sentiment about Ethereum options is lower than for Bitcoin. Put contracts are more expensive than calls, indicating bearish sentiment in the market.
"Ethereum options reflect concerns that the SEC will not approve the deadlines for the VanEck and Ark21 spot #ETFs on May 23rd and 24th," experts noted.
Recall that trader and analyst Rekt Capital believes that #Bitcoin has reached a local bottom at $57,000 and has entered an accumulation phase.