I'm not claiming to predict price directions, but it seemed apparent that the market was losing steam before the ETF announcement.

The ETF news and its launch had minimal impact, indicating a shift in the market trend.

Subsequently, certain individual altcoins surged, reigniting the rotation strategy, but we didn't witness a widespread altcoin season like the one from November to early January.

This rotation is reminiscent of early and Summer 2023 - a volatile flow of capital, with select memes and narratives thriving while others decline.

In a bullish market, negative news is often disregarded, and positive news boosts prices. However, we're entering a phase where even positive news fails to stimulate the market.

Meanwhile, consistently optimistic market commentators continue to attract attention by maintaining a risky approach, while more pragmatic traders are often overlooked.

Although market sentiment has been fluctuating towards bearishness for a couple of weeks, it seems people haven't significantly shifted to stablecoins, anticipating volatility but not a drastic downturn.

My surveys indicate that over 70% of participants have less than 15% of their portfolio in stablecoins, despite the recent profitable phase being the most significant since late 2021. There's been minimal profit-taking, with most investors merely shifting assets, which might eventually lead to losses as they attempt to recover previous gains.

I predict a correlation between increased capitulation and stablecoin ownership, which I'll continue to monitor through bi-weekly polls.

While capitulation doesn't seem to have fully occurred yet, it's likely imminent, followed by a prolonged, gradual decline.

Moving forward, be cautious of those who excessively promote every price surge, claiming a market recovery. These are often false signals designed to exploit FOMO. There will still be outperformers, but I won't speculate on which ones or the right timing for portfolio adjustments. A single misstep can result in significant losses.

Trading in such an environment is risky. Many have been conditioned over the past few months to follow momentum and believe in their trading acumen, which could lead to harsh consequences.

My Strategy:

I'm shifting back to a strategy of investing in significant dips and accumulation, a market condition I generally excel in. While I may not catch the absolute lowest prices, I'll soon start dollar-cost averaging again. Currently, I'm avoiding speculative tokens, focusing instead on solid projects with potential for recovery. I've placed various orders across centralized exchanges, Cowswap, and Jupiter.

If you don't have stablecoins, it's not a concern, especially in a bull market where timing the market can be tricky. The best approach is to avoid excessive trading. Steer clear of impulsively chasing price surges. Focus on preserving capital in legitimate projects and tokens, and wait patiently. When the market begins to ease again, adapt quickly to capitalize on momentum.

Personally, I also need a break for mental rejuvenation, as do many others. It's a good time to reset, engage in everyday activities, thoroughly research potential altcoin investments, and set strategic bids.