Well, this is indeed the big question in crypto right now!
From a technical perspective, going by previous bull and bear market highs and lows, I am not convinced the bottom is in at $20K. Why is this?
Well If you measure the 2017 bull market top to the 2018 bear market bottom you see a correction of 84.5%.
The current Max % drawdown from the 2021 market high of $69 to $17781 is a 74% correction.
Then we can look at the previous Bull market top of 2014 to the bear market bottom of 2015 and again we see a similar drawdown (85.64%).
Yes it is true BTC is maturing with a larger market cap and therefore volatility should slow down, however we also have huge macro factors giving the Bitcoin price head-wind what with interest rate hikes to combat rising inflation, energy shortages, geo-political instability and rising inflation.
Up until now Bitcoin has tracked the SP500 in the class of a risk asset. Could we start to see a decoupling of this and Bitcoin starts trading as a safe haven asset being that it is scarce, transferable, private and a great store of value!
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