[Disclaimer: This is my personal viewpoint and should not be taken as financial advice. It is intended for those interested in my perspective.]
My analysis will reference $TIA, which debuted with an impressive valuation of $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Given that $TIA was a pioneer in its field, I anticipate $DYM achieving roughly half of $TIA's initial valuation.
Key Points to Remember:
- $DYM successfully secured $6.7 million in funding, led by Stratos among others. Future funding rounds are likely on the horizon.
- Note that at the Time of Token Generation Event (TGE), Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is less significant compared to circulating supply.
Analysis
đ Total Supply: 1,000,000,000 $DYM
đ Genesis Allocation: 7% - 70,000,000 $DYM
đ Ethereum L2s - 1% (10,000,000 $DYM)
đ Celestia - 2% (20,000,000 $DYM)
đ Cosmos - 1.75% (17,500,000 $DYM)
đ Solana - 1% (10,000,000 $DYM)
đ Testnet Allocation: 1% - 10,000,000 $DYM
đ 1M $DYM for top 10 RollApe users
đ 1M $DYM for users with RollApe Role
đ 4M $DYM for Validators
đ 4M $DYM for RollApe Deployers
đ Culture (NFTs like Pudgin Penguins, Madlad, Tensorian) - 1.25% (12,500,000 $DYM)
đ Assuming the initial supply is unconfirmed, team & investor allocation from the genesis pool could be around 7% - 70,000,000 $DYM.
Total supply at TGE = 15% (7% + 1% + 7%), a reasonable figure for making projections.
đ How to Calculate Price Per Token:
Price per token = Market Cap / Circulating Supply
đ Calculating FDV:
FDV = Total Supply x Price Per Token
Price Forecast:
Assuming a 15% supply as projected, and considering the market's psychological expectations mirroring $TIA's trajectory, we might see a market cap exceeding $400 million, equaling $2.6 to $4.6 per token at TGE, potentially reaching a $700 million market cap.
A $1 billion market cap would equate to $6.6 per token, a goal for the future.
đ In any scenario, this represents a lucrative opportunity, heightened by the fact that it's part of a multi-ecosystem airdrop, thus reducing fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD).
[Unclaimed tokens might be redistributed to active participants.]
Interesting Fact: Rollups built using Dymension might also airdrop to their stakers, creating a continuous cycle. Additionally, the Avail Network could provide data availability benefits, possibly offering $AVAIL through $DYM staking.
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It's worth noting that even popular influencers who initially sold their $TIA tokens ended up buying them back at higher prices. However, with the current FOMO and high expectations, even less experienced traders are likely to hold onto their tokens.
Remember, there's no second $TIA!
đ Market conditions at launch, influenced by post-ETF news, will also play a crucial role. The long-term outlook remains bullish, especially if investor tokens are locked for a year.
Post-genesis, an on-chain proposal is expected to incentivize 2,500,000 $DYM to users who bridge tokens to Dymension, potentially increasing the Total Value Locked (TVL).