Since Bitcoin's founding, there has been discussion and conjecture regarding the identity of its enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. With an upcoming HBO documentary claiming to unveil Satosh'is true identity, this conjecture has recently escalated. 

Prediction market Polymarket is now accepting bets on who the documentary will name as the true Satoshi. Numerous well-known candidates are leading the predictions, which is surprising given the platform's output. Len Sassaman is leading the charge with a 45% chance of becoming Satoshi, according to Polymarket betting results as of Oct. 8, 2024.

Sassaman, a cryptographer and privacy advocate, has long been seen as a potential candidate because of his familiarity with cypherpunk communities and his depth of knowledge in the field. Despite his tragic death in 2011, many think Sassaman is a strong candidate because of his extensive experience in cryptography. 

Source: Polymarket

Second place with a 15% chance goes to Hal Finney, a pioneer in cryptography and one of the first users of Bitcoin. Finney is renowned for having received the very first Bitcoin transaction from Nakamoto, and speculation about his role in the early stages of the cryptocurrency has increased. 

Some speculate that Finney may have known the true identity of or been operating under the alias Satoshi. Other well-known individuals with considerably lower odds are Nick Szabo and Adam Back at 2% and 7%, respectively. The origin of Bitcoin is commonly attributed to Szabo, a computer scientist well known for his work on digital contracts. 

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The betting markets are dubious about his claim to be Nakamoto despite these ties. Though there is less of a likelihood that Adam Back, the creator of Hashcash, is Satoshi, he has also been suggested as such. Notably, Craig Wright, who has openly asserted his identity as Nakamoto, is only 1% likely to win. His controversial claim has been largely rejected by the Bitcoin community due to a lack of convincing evidence. 

Last but not least, 38% of wagerers think the documentary will either name more than one person or not reveal who Satoshi is. The world of cryptocurrencies continues to watch and speculate as the HBO documentary's release date draws near with no clear answers.