Fresh off the Singapore TOKEN2049 parties, Cryptopolitan had the opportunity to chat with BitMEX and Maelstrom founder Arthur Hayes to gauge the markets.
We asked him when he thinks Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high, and he gave us a pretty confident prediction, saying:
âIn October. Before the election.â
Arthur sees a vacuum of power in the United States, as the losing side wonât accept the results â whoever they are.
And that kind of chaos is bullish for Bitcoin, according to him. He believes the liquidity situation will be very good leading up to November 5th.
Why the Maelstrom Bitcoin developer is important
We wanted to dig into the vision behind the Maelstrom Bitcoin Developer Grant. Arthur started the grant at BitMEX years ago to support on-chain developers.Â
âWeâre all recipients of Satoshiâs white paper,â he said with a laugh. He is the type of man who apparently believes that those who profit from crypto should give back.
This grant was his own way of doing that. He believes a strong Bitcoin network is essential.Â
âBitcoin is the hardest money ever created. Its security is too important.â
We then asked him about the first recipient of the grant, Rkrux. What stood out about him? Humorously, Arthur confessed heâs not the one who reviews the applications.Â
âJonathan Beer, who runs BitMEX Research, vets all the applicants,â he said. Arthur mentioned that others were impressed with Rkruxâs work and dedication.
They didnât want the same kind of people getting grants.Â
âWe want to encourage anyone who has the technical abilities to contribute to Bitcoin core.â
But Arthur doesnât want to ever influence the direction of Bitcoin development. âI have some opinions,â he said, but he doesnât want to push his personal views onto the network.
He told us that he believes in letting grantees work on what fits the network best.
Meme coins and Arthurâs obsession with MOTHER
The conversation then moved to something Arthurâs been all over lately â meme coins. We asked why heâs so interested in Iggy Azaleaâs MOTHER. Arthur said, âItâs meme coin season.âÂ
He pointed out that the Fed, the ECB, and China have all cut interest rates. He expects a fiscal âbazookaâ soon.Â
âWe have a very positive liquidity environment, and meme coins are the most levered to that.âÂ
He loves MOTHER because the team behind it, led by Iggy, is genuinely involved. Theyâre not just in it for a quick pump-and-dump.
He also commends Iggy for being pro-sex and not being afraid of making crypto fun, and entertaining.
âShe threw a big party in Singapore, got on stage, and talked at various conferences.â
When he started buying, the market cap was around $70 million. He thinks it could go much higher because of her reach and long-term commitment.
Heâs not a fan of celebrities who launch coins and disappear, like Caitlyn Jenner and Jason Derulo.
The Fed and Bitcoin
And of course we asked about the Federal Reserve. Arthur is known for sharing his opinions on monetary policy and its effect on markets.
He thinks Janet Yellen will keep printing money, no matter whoâs in the Oval. Itâll inevitably drive up inflation and make Bitcoin surge. He doesnât see any politician making the hard choices.Â
âThey could solve the underlying problem, or paper it over with printed money,â he said. Arthurâs betting on the latter.
Heâs convinced that both the U.S. and China will keep printing money.
âAt the end of the day, itâs a fractional fiat banking system that prints money.â
Until politicians quite literally change how they enact policies, he believes the only answer is more printed money. And that means Bitcoin, in fiat terms, has nowhere to go but up.
Itâs a simple equation for him.
Then we asked about Trump. What if he wins? Arthur thinks the market will initially rise, expecting him to remain pro-crypto. But he admits thatâs misplaced hope.
âDuring his four years in office, he did nothing to advance crypto in the United States,â Arthur said. He doesnât think Trump will be any different this time.
Thereâs also Congress to consider. âIf the Democrats take the Senate and the House, Trumpâs rhetoric will be empty,â he said.
To round up our interview, Arthur made it clear he doesnât give financial advice. However, he did tell us what Maelstrom holds.
âOn the meme coin side, obviously MOTHER, PEPE, and MOG. I tweeted about them just nowâ he said, though he called them fun trading positions, not huge.
Bullish on Aptos
When it comes to altcoins, heâs more serious. Heâs very bullish on Aptos. Heâs an investor and advisor.Â
Arthur believes Aptos will overtake Solana as the number two layer-1 blockchain in the next two to three years. He said, âI continue to stand by that.â
Heâs also excited about Aether, an AI hardware company that uses NVIDIAâs H100 or H1000 chips for enterprise solutions.
People can run Aether nodes to verify computations in a decentralized manner. âWe have a large position and are advisors to that as well,â he said.
Then we asked the big question. Which is better, Ethereum or Solana? Arthur didnât hesitate. âEthereum,â he said almost immediately.
His metric? Developer count. âEthereum is clearly winning in that respect,â he told me.Â
As someone who does a lot of early-stage investing in token projects, Arthur knows that real game-changing innovations launch on Ethereum first.
And then Solana will copy it, sometimes poorly too. He believes Solana is good at building a community, but real innovation happens on Ethereum.Â
He rattled off examples. Uniswap, derivative DEXes, NFTs, â all launched on Ethereum first. He doesnât see Solana ever actually catching up, but he acknowledged its strength.
âThe memecoin phenomenon is testament to that,â he said.
Before we said goodbye, he repeated that he doesnât think Trump will actually change anything for crypto, but he knows the market will react to the possibility if he were to win.
And no matter who wins, remember, the money printers will keep running. Thatâs what makes him so sure about his investments.
âThey donât want austerity or balanced budgets,â he said. Arthur sees Bitcoin as a hedge against all that.