Recently, with the U.S. dollar's interest rates declining, the RMB has appreciated significantly, making an already difficult export business even harder. Many friends in the crypto community have complained about losses from holding U.S. dollars, but traditional industry leaders around me are accelerating their escape while the RMB is appreciating!
Hereâs the general logic:
1. Debt Levels and GDP Ratios between China and the U.S.: Current data from 2022 shows that Chinaâs overall debt level is 337 trillion RMB, equivalent to about 47.73 trillion USD. Local government debt has worsened in recent years, and the hidden debt subject of city investment will likely exceed 88 trillion. Meanwhile, Chinaâs GDP in 2023 is 17.89 trillion USD, resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 266.8% (2023 data).
In the U.S., the debt primarily consists of federal government debt, household debt, and institutional debt, with government debt at 30.2 trillion USD, household debt at 15.5 trillion, and institutional debt at 2 trillion, totaling 47.5 trillion USD. The U.S. GDP in 2023 is 27.37 trillion USD, leading to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 174.2% (2023 data).
2. M2 Growth Rate: Over the past decade, Chinaâs average M2 growth rate has been 10.12%, while the U.S. has seen an average of 6.69%. The M2 growth rate can be understood as the speed of currency over-issuance.
3. Observable Economic Conditions: The economic situation between China and the U.S. is visibly declining, with recent months showing unfavorable CPI, PPI, and PMI data. This reflects increasing deflation. As a manufacturing powerhouse, Chinaâs PMI has been below the growth line since May. Coupled with the recent RMB appreciation, export data will be even more challenging!
As mentioned, those recently advocating for RMB appreciation are mostly outsiders watching the excitement, while insidersâtraditional industry leaders with years of experienceâare making more representative and wise moves! Now is a good time to exchange for dollars, not the other way around!