Many people don’t understand why I’m still bearish on Bitcoin. My bearish stance comes from the fact that the chances of a strong bull market starting right now are low. When you look at the current global economic situation and the increasing geopolitical tensions, I don’t see how the crypto market can suddenly take off. Yes, interest rates have been cut by 50 basis points, but the liquidity issues in the crypto space haven’t been fixed—it’s just FOMO driving things. I believe a real bull market can only happen during a longer period of interest rate cuts, with fresh money coming into the market. It will likely take at least 3 to 5 rate cuts before we see the real rally. Right now, it’s just too early.
I don’t look at the charts much this time around because I feel the market is being heavily manipulated by Wall Street. The price goes up when it should go down and vice versa. This round feels like a game played by big players. The trends often don’t align with technical analysis.
After the recent 50 basis point rate cut, the crypto market celebrated, and many thought the big rally was here. But I’m still short. A lot of people feel like they missed out, but if you want to catch the bottom, you need patience. Trying to catch every rebound isn’t realistic. I believe this market run is just based on emotions (FOMO), and in about a week, once people calm down and realize nothing has fundamentally changed, the price will drop again. I don’t think the crypto market can hit a bull run and break past $80,000 without significant new funds coming in.
Right now, there’s heavy resistance at $65,000. It hasn’t been able to break through after three attempts, and the trading volume keeps dropping. Bitcoin is moving up alone, while altcoins haven’t caught up to the level when Bitcoin was at $63,000. This makes it hard for me to switch my view to bullish.
