The Fed recently made headlines by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), and naturally, people are talking. There’s a lot of buzz on social media about how rate cuts like these could mean trouble for stocks and crypto, with some predicting a major crash. The idea comes from a belief that whenever the Fed starts slashing rates by 50 bps or more, it usually signals the beginning of a recession. But here’s the thing—that’s not entirely true.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane and look at what actually happened during past rate cuts:

✦ September 1984:

- The Fed introduced its first 50 bps rate cut.

- The result? The S&P 500 (SPX) pumped 9% over the next six months.

✦ November 1987:

- Another 50 bps rate cut from the Fed.

- SPX responded by gaining 6% within the next six months.

✦ January 2001:

- The Fed went bigger, cutting rates by 100 bps.

- SPX took a hit, dropping 8% in the following six months.

✦ September 2007:

- The Fed cut rates by 50 bps.

- SPX saw an 11% dip over the next six months.

So, as you can see, a 50 bps or more rate cut hasn’t always spelled disaster for the markets. Whether stocks and crypto rally or drop depends on the broader economic picture. Right now, we're not entering a recession—at least not yet. GDP is still positive, inflation is trending down, and global liquidity is increasing.

In my opinion, this could actually set the stage for a crypto bull run. I believe Bitcoin ($BTC ) could skyrocket past $150,000, with altcoins following suit, gaining 20x to 100x. After that, we might see the start of a recession, which could coincide perfectly with Bitcoin’s usual four-year cycle.

So, while many are expecting the worst, history and current conditions suggest we might see a very different outcome.

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