Bitcoin BTC
+2.26%
may end the year at a new all-time high, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, according to Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick.
"I think bitcoin ends the year higher, at new all-time highs, no matter who wins the U.S. election, with a Trump win taking it to $125,000 and $75,000 if itâs Harris," the bank's head of forex and digital assets research said in an email on Thursday.
The Standard Chartered analyst added that the U.S. presidential election's impact on the future trajectory of bitcoin matters less than it did when Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate â and that, overall, it matters less than markets expect. Kendrick claims bitcoin could reach new all-time highs by the end of 2024 due to "positive drivers dominating regardless of the election outcome."
Regulatory developments as a key driver
Kendrick pointed to regulatory changes as a significant positive factor for bitcoin's price growth. "We think progress on relaxing regulations â particularly the repeal of SAB 121, which imposes stringent accounting rules on banksâ digital asset holdings â will continue in 2025 no matter who is in the White House," Kendrick said.
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Additionally, he highlighted developments in U.S. Treasury markets as adding tailwinds for bitcoin's long-term trajectory. "We think current developments in U.S. Treasury markets â a re-steepening curve, with breakevens falling less than real yields and risk-neutral yields falling while term premium is stable â are building positive momentum for bitcoin," he said.
The Standard Chartered analyst added that he expects a seasonal rebound in spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund inflows in October.
Election outcomeâs impact on crypto
A Trump victory is generally seen as favorable for cryptocurrencies, especially given his recent appearance at Bitcoin 2024 and announcements about his DeFi project. Analysts believe Trumpâs administration would accelerate progress on pro-crypto policies.
However, many analysts view a victory by Kamala Harris as potentially bearish for bitcoin, as it might delay some of the progress expected under a Trump administration. "A Harris victory would likely trigger an initial price decline, but we would expect dips to be bought as the market recognises that progress on the regulatory front will still be forthcoming, and as other positive drivers take hold," Kendrick said.
Media commentators have described Trump's performance in Tuesday's televised presidential debate as underwhelming. Following the debate, Vice President Kamala Harris's chances of winning the November election improved on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, rising from 46% to 50%. Meanwhile, Trump's odds dropped from 52% to 49%.
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