Bitcoin to $10000 or $100000?
Bitcoin (BTCUSD), the biggest cryptocurrency, bottomed out on August 5 at $49202, climbed overlappingly until the end of the month, and is now at $58167. A monthly 18% crypto increase isn't the most impressive. Our favorite analytical tool is the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), therefore this âsloppyâ price behavior is ambiguous.
Figure 1. BTCUSD daily candlestick chart with technical indicators.
As long as the August 5 low holds, the (grey) wave-i, ii setup may emerge. Grey W-i and W-ii counted as three waves since they might be part of a diagonal 5th wave. Retracing roughly 61.80% of the possible W-i rally at yesterday's low is normal for a 2nd wave. BTCUSD remains below its descending Ichimoku Cloud, 10-day SMA, 20d, 50d, and 200d SMAs. The chart trend is still 100% Bearish, so the Bulls have a lot of work to do. A break over the late-August high, the possible grey W-i, at $65120 indicates the grey W-iii is beginning. BTCUSD may rise above the Cloud and SMAs at that important support/resistance level.
As previously said, âif the August 5 low has taught us anything, it is that this yearâs price action is discombobulated.â Unfortunately, this remains true. The Bulls' third (orange) warning level is holding, but if it fails, we'll need $40000s again. Refer to Figure 2.
Figure 2. BTCUSD daily candlestick chart with technical indicators.
In that scenario, the August rebound was likely another B-wave bounce, and a final C-wave to $44-48K should be projected for a longer W-X-Y decline than at the August low. Conversely, we have set Bear warning levels on the chart to show us over which prices a lower bottom becomes less probable. The first blue warning will cost $59500, the second $65120, etc.
Thus, although the price movement is still poor, we now have simple price-based metrics to tell us whether we will see lower prices first or if the August 5th low and yesterday's low will hold.
