An analyst stated that although cryptocurrency traders are excited about a possible altcoin season, it won't go exactly as planned as novice traders would rush to purchase the riskiest assets too soon.
Lead analyst James Check of Glassnode stated, "The joke has been told, everybody knows the punchline, and they've just gone straight to the punchline, and it is just not funny anymore," in an edition of the Rough Consensus podcast broadcast on August 29.
Traders made an effort to beat the market.
Check claimed to have outsmarted the market by purchasing the most popular memecoins as soon as possible after examining trading behavior during the 2021 bull run and comparing it to 2024.
Memecoins have historically surged around the end of a larger market rise, but this time the assets have been rising more quickly than in previous bull runs.
Check outlined the "everything bubble" of 2021, which included the stunning capital waterfall, L1s, DeFi, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and monkey JPEGs, among other things. He said that a lot of people who were new to cryptocurrency had discovered that buying the most foolish coin was the fastest way to get the most money.
Check stated that once spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved on January 10, traders started swinging for the fences with memecoins, using the significant increase in Bitcoin's price.
Traders went directly to PEPE.
"They went straight to PEPE token" rather than purchasing assets farther up the risk curve or app utility tokens.
reported incredible gains in the first half of 2024, with a few traders realizing returns that were quite mouthwatering. One astute PEPE trader gained $46 million on May 15, more than 15,718 times the initial $3,000 investment he made in April.
Check said that "there was this gap in the middle where no one touched anything," despite the fact that the price of PEPE and other significant memecoins, such Dogwifhat (WIF), was surging.
However, some experts and traders see the declining cryptocurrency prices along with lower-than-expected trading volumes as a bullish indication for future price movement.
Crypto trader Luke Martin stated that "altcoins [are] currently at the'sell your house to buy more' level" to his 331,500 X followers on August 29.
According to Martin, Bitcoin's price increased sixfold in the second half of 2020, when it was at this point in the summer.
In the next six months, the price "went vertical from 10k to 60k," according to Martin.