The chart shows Bitcoin's price movement after each halving event in 2012, 2016, 2020, and the current 2024 cycle. The prices are scaled to the 2024 halving to allow for comparison.
Key Observations:
1. Current Price Comparison:
- 2024: $64,498.02, 128 days after the halving.
- 2012 Scaled: $737,468.70
- 2016 Scaled: $69,014.88
- 2020 Scaled: $81,163.29
2. Pattern Recognition:
- 2012: This cycle had the most explosive growth, peaking much higher than the other cycles. The current 2024 price is significantly lower compared to the 2012 scaled price, indicating a less aggressive early rally.
- 2016: The 2016 cycle shows a gradual rise, peaking later in the cycle. The current 2024 price is closely following the 2016 pattern.
- 2020: The 2020 cycle also had a strong early rally but started to diverge around the 128-day mark, with a higher price than the current 2024 level.
3. Volatility and Pullbacks:
- The chart shows that after the initial rally in each cycle, Bitcoin experiences significant volatility with pullbacks and consolidations before the next major move.
Future Price Movement Prediction:
Given that the current 2024 price is tracking closely with the 2016 scaled price, we can anticipate a similar gradual upward trend, with potential pullbacks and consolidations along the way. However, since the 2024 price is slightly lower than the 2020 scaled price, there could be room for a catch-up rally, where Bitcoin might experience a more accelerated increase in the coming months.
Short-Term Prediction:
- Expected Movement: The price may continue to follow a path similar to the 2016 cycle, with moderate growth and potential for reaching around $70,000-$75,000 in the near term.
Long-Term Prediction:
- Expected Movement: If the 2024 cycle follows historical patterns, we might see a strong rally similar to the 2016 or 2020 cycle, potentially pushing the price beyond $100,000 later in the cycle.
Trading Recommendation đŻ:
- Long Position: Consider accumulating at the current price ($64,498.02) with a stop-loss at $60,000 and a take-profit target at $75,000 to capitalize on the expected continuation of the upward trend.
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