As we await tomorrow's CPI report, the consensus is clearâheadline inflation is expected to hover around 3.0%. Here's what major institutions are predicting:
July CPI Predictions:
1. Kalshi: 2.9% đ
2. TD Securities: 2.9% đ
3. UBS: 2.9% đ
4. Goldman Sachs: 2.9% đ
5. Citigroup: 3.0% đ
6. Morgan Stanley: 3.0% đ
7. Bank of America: 3.0% đ
8. Barclays: 3.0% đ
The Big Picture:
- Median July CPI Expectation:
𧟠Headline inflation at 3.0% and Core CPI inflation at 3.2%.
- Historical Context:
đ If CPI inflation comes in at 2.9% or lower, it will be the first time inflation is under 3.0% since March 2021.
- Implications for Rate Cuts:
đ Tomorrow's CPI report could solidify the case for a September rate cut.
- Inflation Trends:
đ Just about all measures suggest that inflation is trending lower.
- Economic Context:
đ With the rise in the unemployment rate and growing recession fears, conditions appear ripe for a rate cut.
Conclusion:
If tomorrow's CPI inflation report aligns with expectations, the path could be clear for the Fed to begin cutting rates as early as next month. The market will be watching closely, as this could mark a significant shift in monetary policy.