Since March, Bitcoin ($BTC) has exhibited choppy price action with a bearish bias, causing altcoin ($ALT ) pairs to decline. This scenario mirrors the behavior observed in 2019:

- 2019 Pattern: BTC trended downward after hitting a “mid-cycle top” around the time Gold broke out. Similar to this year, BTC’s price action after the breakout led to a downtrend before a subsequent rise driven by rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE).

BTC Dominance

- Historical Context: In 2019, BTC dominance increased as altcoins struggled. A similar trend is observed today, with BTC dominance slowly rising.

- Prediction: BTC dominance is expected to reach around 60% later this year before potentially topping out.

USDT Dominance

- Recent Trends: USDT dominance has risen since March, and it appears to have bottomed out along a consistent trend line.

- Implication: As BTC dominance breaks out, the current phase may signal the end of the altcoin rally.

Historical Patterns and Predictions

- Previous Cycle: In the last cycle, BTC dropped 30% after ALT/BTC pairs broke down before recovering. A similar pattern could suggest a bounce might not occur until BTC reaches $50,000.

- Current Situation: BTC has failed to sweep recent highs before pulling back to range lows. Observing the price movement leading up to the spot ETF launch, it briefly exceeded highs.

Next Steps

- Short-Term Movements: Depending on whether BTC makes a slightly higher high or a lower high next week, the impact on ALT/BTC pairs could be significant, likely leading to further declines.

This analysis suggests that BTC’s dominance is strengthening, potentially signaling a challenging period for altcoins and a need for a cleansing phase in the market.

#Bitcoin