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Bitcoin Volatility Index Rises To 52.7, Up By 4.42%

According to BlockBeats, the BitVol index, a measure of expected implied volatility derived from tradable Bitcoin options prices, has risen to 52.7, marking a daily increase of 4.42%. The index was launched by financial index company T3 Index in collaboration with options trading platform LedgerX. The implied volatility is the volatility implied by the actual options price. It is calculated using the B-S options pricing formula, where the actual price of the option and all other parameters except volatility (σ) are substituted into the formula to derive the volatility. The actual price of an option is formed by competition among many options traders. Therefore, the implied volatility represents the market participants' views and expectations for the future of the market, and is considered to be the closest to the real volatility at that time.
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US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Experience Seventh Consecutive Day of Net Outflows

According to Blockworks, US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for a seventh consecutive trading day, tying a record set earlier this year. The 10 funds, monitored by Farside Investors, have collectively lost assets each trading day from June 13 to June 24, excluding the Juneteenth federal holiday. The outflows have amounted to approximately $1.1 billion over these seven days, averaging $162 million per day. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) has experienced more capital withdrawal than the outflow-leading Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). However, the segment’s asset leader, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), has managed to maintain slight inflows of about $21 million during this period. Overall, the net inflows of the fund category since their January launches have decreased to around $14.4 billion. This streak of outflows is almost unprecedented, with seven consecutive days of outflows occurring only once before, from April 24 to May 2, according to Farside Investors data. The negative flows during that period were slightly heavier, totaling about $1.2 billion. About half of this amount, $564 million, was withdrawn on May 1 alone. Analysts have partially attributed the outflow streak from April 24 to May 2 to investors taking profits after seeing significant price appreciation on their shares. The current net outflow streak coincides with a substantial dip in BTC price, which briefly fell below $60,000 on Monday and was around $61,760 at 11 am ET Tuesday, down 7% from a week ago. Industry analysts and executives have pointed out the absence of near-term catalysts for the asset, given the upcoming Mt. Gox repayments, miners selling their BTC holdings, and the Fed's decision to keep interest rates steady earlier this month. However, some anticipate bitcoin to reach a new all-time high above $73,000 in the coming months due to inflationary pressures, a potential Fed interest rate cut, and continued institutional adoption. The outcome of the US election in November could also act as a catalyst for BTC, depending on the winner.
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Crypto Fear and Greed Index Hits 18-Month Low Amid Bitcoin Price Drop

According to CryptoPotato, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a tool that gauges market sentiment for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency sector, has plummeted to its lowest level in nearly a year and a half. This comes in the wake of Bitcoin's fall below $60,000, its lowest level since early May. On June 24, the index dropped 21 points, entering the 'Fear' zone with a score of 30. This represents one of the most significant day-to-day declines in recent years and a shift from the 'Greed' zone, where it was at 74 just a week prior. Bitcoin also saw a significant price decrease of over 4% within the last 24 hours, hitting a seven-week low. The digital currency reached a low of approximately $58,400 on June 24 before making a recovery. As per CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $61,115. Several factors have led to this increase in fear. Over the past 10 trading days, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds have experienced substantial outflows exceeding $1 billion. Additionally, reports that the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange might be preparing to liquidate $8.5 billion worth of BTC to its creditors have heightened the uncertainty. Despite these developments, some experts believe the market's reaction may be overblown. Samson Mow, an executive at Galaxy Digital, reassured the market that the Bitcoin dip is driven purely by sentiment and fear, not by the selling of large holdings. He emphasized that large entities are adept at not moving the market, citing the imbalance in ETF inflows a few weeks ago, where demand was 27 times the supply, yet the price remained mostly stable. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index considers various factors, including market volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), Bitcoin's dominance (10%), and trends (10%). Since reaching a peak score of 90 in the 'Extreme Greed' zone on March 5, when Bitcoin hit a high of $69,000, the index has been on a downward trend.
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Bitcoin Holds Steady at $60K Amid Massive Sell-Off Fears – Is a Drop to $50K Next?

According to BlockBeats: on June 25, 10x Research tweeted that Bitcoin is currently severely oversold. Many opinion leaders are advising their followers to buy on dips while altcoins appear to be performing relatively stable. The 10x Research Greed and Fear Index is close to its historical low, a level typically associated with market bottoms. Key Points: 1. Bitcoin is Deeply Oversold: - Influencer Advice: Influencers are recommending buying the dip as Bitcoin seems deeply oversold. Meanwhile, altcoins are holding their ground relatively well. - Greed & Fear Index: The 10x Research Greed & Fear Index is nearing its lowest possible levels, often associated with market lows, indicating a potential buying opportunity. 2. Reasons for Bitcoin Sell-Off: Several factors are contributing to the ongoing Bitcoin sell-off: - Mt. Gox Distribution: Estimated $9 billion worth of Bitcoin distribution from Mt. Gox creditors starting in July. - German Government Sales: The German Government is reportedly selling $3 billion worth of confiscated Bitcoin. - Bitcoin Miners: Miners are selling approximately $2-3 billion worth of Bitcoin. - ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs are selling around $1.4 billion worth of BTC. - OG Wallets: Original Bitcoin wallets are liquidating about $1.2 billion worth of BTC. Hypothetically, this totals between $16-18 billion, comparable to the year-to-date Bitcoin ETF inflows. 3. Trading Signals and Market Predictions: - Sell Signals: Our trading signals have indicated multiple sell signals for Bitcoin.  - June 12: A new volatility signal predicted a decline when Bitcoin traded at $67,339.  - June 24: A price range signal indicated further declines when Bitcoin traded at $61,113. - Market Concerns: Despite some attributing the latest drop to Mt. Gox-related FUD and other influences, there appears to be a structural factor impacting the market. This could lead to more profound consequences and potentially deeper declines before a rebound from lower levels might occur. Additional Concerns: There's growing concern that more liquidity may exit the market, especially since the current price levels are near the break-even point for Bitcoin ETF buyers and miners.  - ETF Buyer Price: The average entry price for Bitcoin ETF buyers is around $60,000-$61,000. - Mining Costs: The average mining cost for Bitcoin miners is approximately $60,000 per Bitcoin. Both ETF buyers and miners may continue to sell despite influencers' and speculators' optimistic outlooks. Currently, Bitcoin is holding steady at $60,000, but the question remains: for how long? A potential decline to $50,000 is becoming increasingly plausible given the selling pressures. Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, deeply oversold with significant selling pressures from various sources. Influencers recommend buying the dip, but underlying concerns about liquidity and market fundamentals suggest caution. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain its $60,000 support or if a fall to $50,000 is imminent.
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Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash Repayments Begin for Mt. Gox Investors

According to U.Today, Mt. Gox trustees have initiated the repayment process of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash to investors. This move marks a significant step in the redistribution of BTC and BCH that have been locked since the notorious 2011 hack. The Mt. Gox exchange, once the largest Bitcoin exchange globally, had to shut down after losing over 700,000 BTC in the hack. Since then, the process of repaying investors has been hindered by numerous legal and administrative challenges. The commencement of repayments is a crucial turning point in this ongoing issue. The redistribution of Mt. Gox funds could potentially have a significant impact on the market. The release of these funds might lead to substantial selling pressure for Bitcoin, which is currently struggling to maintain its price above key levels. The return of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash to investors is now in the final stages, as stated by Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi. The repayment schedule is set to begin in early July 2024. According to the Rehabilitation Plan, repayments will be made in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. The repayments will be carried out in collaboration with multiple cryptocurrency exchanges, ensuring the completion of essential data exchange and verification before the funds are released. Kobayashi emphasized that the team has put in a lot of effort to ensure the repayments are reliable and secure. This includes implementing technological solutions for safe transactions that comply with financial laws in each country and collaborating with cryptocurrency exchanges to set up repayment terms.
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Crypto Community Anticipates Significant Bitcoin Appreciation Over Next Decade, Poll Reveals

According to U.Today, a recent poll initiated by MicroStrategy chairman and cofounder Michael Saylor has revealed a strong bullish sentiment within the crypto community. The poll asked participants about their expectations for Bitcoin's annual appreciation in USD over the next ten years. The results suggest that a significant price boom for Bitcoin could be on the horizon. Nearly half of the respondents expressed extreme optimism about Bitcoin's future, anticipating substantial annual appreciation that could propel the cryptocurrency to unprecedented levels. The poll results showed that 22.4% of participants expect a steady rise of 10% to 19% annually. Meanwhile, 18% are even more bullish, predicting an annual surge of 20% to 29%. A hopeful 10.8% of respondents anticipate a 30% to 39% increase each year. However, the majority, a whopping 48.8%, envision a staggering 40% annual appreciation for over a decade. This optimistic sentiment comes at a time when Bitcoin is experiencing a significant downturn, having extended its drop near $60,000. Bitcoin recently extended its decline to lows of $60,581 in the early trading session today, marking a more than one-month low and a roughly 6% drop. This decline reflects lower demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and monetary policy concerns, particularly about the Federal Reserve's ability to quickly reduce interest rates from a two-decade high. Despite reaching an all-time high of $73,798 in mid-March, Bitcoin has lagged behind traditional investments like equities, bonds, and gold this quarter. However, as the crypto community keeps a close watch on Bitcoin's price movement in the short term, Saylor's poll reflects expectations for Bitcoin's growth over the next decade.
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Fundstrat's Tom Lee Discusses Factors Influencing Bitcoin Price Predictions

According to U.Today, Tom Lee of Fundstrat recently appeared on the 'Odds Lots' podcast to discuss his Bitcoin predictions. Lee highlighted the unique nature of Bitcoin as an asset class, emphasizing its cooperative value. He explained that those who contribute to the Bitcoin network benefit from it, a characteristic that sets it apart from other asset classes. Lee's firm first wrote about Bitcoin in 2017 when it was valued at around $1,000. Fundstrat published a white paper at the time, identifying two main variables that determine Bitcoin's price: the number of active wallets and the activity per wallet. Lee stated, 'At that time, we made a simple projection. We said that in five years, by 2022, if the number of wallets went up by 70%, and activity per wallet went up by 40%, Bitcoin would be $25,000 by 2022.' Lee also praised Bitcoin as an 'incredible technology,' noting its security and the fact that it has never been hacked in its 14-year existence. He added that 'Not a single entry on the Bitcoin ledger is fraudulent.' However, he also acknowledged that over 80% of Bitcoin price moves are still explained by activity per wallet. Fidelity's Jurian Timmer has suggested that the underwhelming growth of the Bitcoin network could be the reason why the cryptocurrency failed to record record highs in recent months. On Monday, Bitcoin slipped below the $60,000 level for the first time in more than a month, touching an intraday low of $59,863, according to CoinGecko data. Despite this, Lee remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future, having reiterated his previous price target of $150,000 back in June.
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