$BTC Trading Volumes Declining Since November

Bitcoin’s trading volume has been in a steady downtrend since its peak in November.

🔹 Lower volume = longer consolidation
🔹 Market likely to stay rangebound
🔹 Patience is key until a catalyst sparks the next wave of buyers

What will be the trigger for the next big move?

After the most recent price action:

1) The vast majority of people in the magic internet money market have flipped bearish.

2) Market sentiment is worse than what I saw during the last bear market (Luna & FTX crashes).

3) The Fear & Greed Index is at levels comparable to the darkest days of the last crypto winter.

Let’s be real—this is not how a top looks.

The real top won’t feel like a top.

By then, everyone around you will be screaming:

> “Higher”
> “Super cycle”
> “Bitcoin to $1M”
> “New paradigm”
> “We’ll never see a bear market again”

You don’t believe me?

Go back and study history.

Now, what I see on the Bitcoin chart right now looks similar to what happened in early August.

Remember that massive shakeout?

It was “over” back then too.

Then, a couple of months later, Bitcoin started its parabolic impulse toward $100K+.

I believe history will rhyme once again—look at the projection I made on the chart.

Always zoom out.

Until proven otherwise, this is nothing but a normal and healthy bull-market retracement.

Bitcoin always had multiple strong corrections on its way to the cycle top.

Why this time has to be different?

All I see right now is a sweep of the most recent lows and “kiss” of the 21W SMA after sometime away from it.

Parabolic advance, reset, tap of the 21W SMA, run again — this has been a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s history.

To wrap this up:

If we put everything together:

> TA
> Macro
> “Adoption”
> Market sentiment
Etc.

Being bearish right now doesn’t make much sense to me.

I know the most recent price action has been messing with your brains, but don’t let it cloud your judgement.

Now eyes on the weekly and monthly closures — those will bring us essential data that we’ll use to re-asses our market bias.

Eyes on the prize.

$BTC Liquidations Hit Highest Level in 2+ Years!

Yesterday’s plunge wiped out $320M in BTC liquidations on perpetual futures—the biggest flush since August 2023.

• Leverage traders wrecked
• Max pain across the market
• Capitulation or setup for a reversal?

When fear peaks, opportunities arise. What’s next for Bitcoin?

$BTC ETFs just experienced their second largest day of outflows ever. 🥶

Over $937 million left ETFs yesterday, the most in over 12 months. Could this be a peak capitulation event for $BTC in the short term?

🇨🇦 Canada Leads in Bitcoin Adoption!

According to a Triple-A report, 10.1% of Canadians own crypto, putting Canada ahead of:

📌 Australia – 9.6%
📌 Norway – 8.7%
📌 Germany – 8.3%

With Bitcoin legally classified as a commodity, Canada offers a clear regulatory framework for individuals and businesses.

Binance CEO: “This Is a Tactical Retreat, Not a Reversal”

Binance  CEO @Richard Teng reassures investors, saying the current market dip is not a full reversal but a temporary retreat.

🔹 “Crypto has been here before and bounced back even stronger.”

With key indicators showing signs of a future recovery, is this the time to build positions?

🚨 ALERT: Hackers Using Fake GitHub Projects to Steal Crypto

Cybersecurity firm Kaspersky warns that hackers are creating fake GitHub repositories loaded with malware to target crypto users.

🔹 Campaign Name: GitVenom
🔹 Threats: Remote access trojans (RATs), info-stealers, and clipboard hijackers
🔹 Goal: Steal private keys & drain crypto wallets

Always verify sources before downloading any project!

Okay, so hear me out on this one:

"Everyone only bids utility projects from here"

What do you think?

The premium of $MSTR's market cap to it's underlying $BTC holdings has collapsed from a high of 3.4 in November to only 1.6 now.

The lower this number goes, the harder it will be for Saylor to raise more capital for $BTC purchases.

It seems like he will have to slow his pace.

I expected Q1 to be bullish.

I won't bullshit you... so far, I was wrong.

I am still bullish for 2025 though.

There are over 560 million people who hold cryptocurrency worldwide, with countries known for their crypto-friendly policy leading the way.

While this might sound like a lot, it only represents 6.9% of the world's population. We still have a long way to go for global adoption.

If $BTC follows a similar pattern to previous halving cycles, it should still have plenty of room to go in the coming year.

But keep in mind that post-halving returns diminish with every cycle, and price targets need to reflect that.

Altcoin dominance by trading volume rebounded back above 50% last week. 📈

This is a sign that interest is starting to flow back into altcoins again.

Risk appetite is coming back.

Along all those years I often felt it's best to forget about any timeline and just stick to the grind while enjoying your other stuff.

It's fine to have expectations and every year think we'll pump in Q1 or Q4 or .... (I do as well!).

BUT I don't live by it. I know there is a very realistic chance we don't or it plays out differently.

There really is no timeline on the market despite what you and me may think or despite what some indicators are saying.

I'm just sticking around and if it's soon, then absolutely awesome!

But if it's not, and another leg-up happens later that's fine as well.

Trust me that you'll totally screw up yourself mentally if you're so fixated on certain time based expectations.

In the end, the market won't go away anywhere.

JUST IN: 🇰🇵 North Korea’s Lazarus Group is moving stolen ETH from ByBit to Chainflip to convert to BTC.

Chainflip says it has limited some frontend services but can’t fully block transactions as a decentralized protocol.

Over $1.1M in ETH has already been converted.

#BybitSecurityBreach

JUST IN: 🇰🇵 North Korea's Lazarus Group behind Bybit's $1.4 billion hack, ZachXBT reports.

#BybitSecurityBreach

I said before that in the current market it pays to take a more observational approach.

The timeline doesn't always repeat itself to the exact moment and this has caused many people to be rekt / confused.

At this exact moment, Bitcoin dominance isn't there yet to show us:

"IT STARTS NOW!"

There was some good promise earlier on but that seemed to have been an early fake-out (watch chart below).

ETH/BTC also doesn't scream UP yet but it has been showing sile strength on the lower time frames if you would zoom in.

Ideally on Bitcoin dominance I would like to see a fake-out exactly as we saw before (yellow box) but from the opposite site.

If Bitcoin dominance can close below the resistance that would be classified as a deviation which often leads to reversals.

Similarly on ETH/BTC we also want to see some reversal pattern (Quick V recovery or W usually + break of structure - Higher high).

Again, we aren't there yet today but it PAYS TO WATCH this.

Will keep you in the loop as always.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe there’s no such thing as bad publicity.

All these president/celebrity meme-scams have done more to onboard new people into this industry than anything else in recent history.

Sure, it was a baptism by fire.

99% of them got instantly rekt.

Right now, they probably think Crypto is just one big scam.

But guess what?

Now they know what this industry is.

They know how to “get involved” if they want.

It’s no longer some distant concept—it’s in their heads.

They’re thinking about it.

And in this industry, awareness is everything.

Because once something enters your mind, it lingers.

It makes you question.

And when price action improves?

When greed takes over?

> “Maybe I was wrong.”
> “Maybe it’s not a scam after all.”
> “There’s real money to be made.”

Boom.

They’re back.

Convinced this time they’ll “do it right.”

And when they do, the exit liquidity floodgates will open.

That’s the nature of this game.