OG Fan Token ($OG), the cryptocurrency associated with the European Esports organisation OG, experienced significant price fluctuations over the past week. The token's value rose dramatically from $2.6 to a peak of $14.3 within just four days, only to drop by more than 50% to $6.6 in a single day. Despite this volatility, the token still recorded an impressive seven-day return of 178%. During this period, trading volume on Convert increased by over 350 times, as traders leveraged the platform to execute large trades while mitigating market risks.Similarly, the Santos FC Fan Token ($SANTOS) witnessed a notable surge in trading activity on Convert, with trading volume increasing twelvefold compared to the previous week. The rise in demand for Fan tokens on the Chiliz blockchain was largely influenced by the activity surrounding the OG Fan Token.Wing Finance ($WING), a decentralised lending platform that operates on a credit-based, cross-chain model, also saw a significant uptick in interest. The platform's partnerships have allowed it to explore various lending markets, including under-collateralized and synthetic token lending. Last week, WING's trading volume skyrocketed by 33 times on Convert, resulting in a weekly gain of 20.3%.The Prosper ($PROS) token experienced a remarkable surge in value following an announcement from Animoca Brands, a blockchain and game software company, regarding its intention to acquire additional native tokens of the platform. This news captured the market's attention, leading to a price increase of over 55% within a week, accompanied by an 89.9% rise in trading volume on Convert.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 8-hour chart.Last week, the overall risk sentiment in the financial markets showed signs of improvement, primarily driven by positive developments in both the China A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market. This uptick in sentiment was particularly notable during the closure of the China A-share market for the National Holiday, a period during which our team observed a significant influx of capital into the cryptocurrency sector. This surge in investment led to a remarkable increase in Bitcoin's price, which rose from $60,000 to over $64,000 over the weekend, reflecting heightened investor interest and optimism in the crypto space.However, this bullish momentum was short-lived. On the first trading day following the reopening of the China A-share market, a significant drop in stock prices cast a shadow of bearish sentiment over the cryptocurrency market. The decline in the A-share market raised concerns among investors, leading to a cautious approach towards riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Compounding this bearish sentiment was the release of robust labour market data from the United States, which indicated a strong economy and reduced expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This development contributed to a strengthening of the US dollar, further pressuring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.As a result, we witnessed notable sell-offs in Bitcoin during the US trading sessions in the past three out of four days as investors reacted to the changing economic landscape. Our analysis revealed a consistent pattern: Bitcoin's price typically declined by over 2% during US trading hours, while it tended to stabilise during the Asian and European sessions. This trend suggests that market dynamics and investor behaviour during different trading hours play a crucial role in Bitcoin's price movements.Interestingly, despite the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time high, Bitcoin faced considerable selling pressure. One potential explanation for this phenomenon is that investors in Bitcoin spot ETFs may be reallocating their capital towards the US stock market, seeking to capitalise on the bullish momentum in equities. This theory is further supported by the ongoing capital outflows observed in 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and strategy. As investors navigate the evolving market landscape, the interplay between traditional equities and cryptocurrencies will continue to shape the dynamics of both asset classes.On Thursday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated a rebound in the declining inflation rate for September, effectively diminishing the prospects of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. Following this news, Bitcoin experienced a swift sell-off during the US trading session but managed to recover most of its losses before the Asian markets opened. Our analysis maintains the view that the $58,000 to $59,000 range will serve as a support level, from which we anticipate a rebound in Bitcoin's price. Should this support level be breached, we expect Bitcoin to revisit the $50,000 to $52,000 range. If that scenario plays out, we do not foresee the price reaching the $100,000 mark until the first quarter of 2025.

Options Market

The above chart is the implied volatility of at-the-money BTC options.Following the recent robust labour market data and a rebound in CPI figures, the US dollar demonstrated notable strength, leading to a new all-time high for US equities, particularly in the S&P 500 index. In contrast, Bitcoin experienced a significant sell-off due to capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. The accompanying table indicates that the implied volatilities (IVs) for the 7-day expiry options are on a downward trend, while the IVs for intermediate and long-term BTC options remain relatively stable within the 50%–55% range. As highlighted in the Overall Market section, our analysis indicates that the BTC price is likely to find support at this level and subsequently rebound. Given our positive long-term outlook for BTC prices, deploying a calendar spread options structure could optimise profit potential while minimising losses.The typical calendar spread trade involves the sale of an option (either a call or put) with a near-term expiration date and simultaneously buying an option (call or put) with a longer-term expiration. Both options are of the same type and typically use the same strike price. By entering a long call calendar spread strategy, the trader will be profiting from price increases in the underlying asset's price or from rising volatility. This strategy has limited risk, with the maximum loss being the net premium paid by the trader. Furthermore, it offers unlimited profit potential if the underlying asset appreciates by the expiration of the longer-term option.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-10-03)US initial jobless claims for this week were recorded at 225,000, which is slightly above the anticipated 222,000 and last week's figure of 219,000. This level of initial claims continues to reflect a trend towards the lower end observed in recent weeks, indicating a strengthening labour market in the United States.In September, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI reached 54.9, surpassing the expected 51.7 and the previous month's 51.5. Additionally, the ISM non-manufacturing Prices Index for the US stood at 59.4 in September, marking the highest level since January. This figure significantly exceeds the forecast of 56.3 and last month's 57.3. The elevated price index suggests ongoing inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious stance regarding future interest rate rates.Last Friday (24-10-04)The US nonfarm payroll report revealed an increase of 254,000 jobs in September, far exceeding the expected 147,000 and August's total of 159,000. This strong payroll data has reduced the chances of the Federal Reserve making a 50 basis point rate cut in the near term.The unemployment rate in the US decreased from 4.2% in August to 4.1% in September, falling below analysts' predictions of 4.2%.In light of the robust labour market, the US dollar index climbed above 102.66, ending the week with a five-day winning streak and a 2.15% gain. In contrast, gold prices saw a slight decline to $2,653, while Bitcoin bounced back from $60,700 to $62,000.On Wednesday (24-10-09)The FOMC minutes indicate a lack of further guidance, with Federal Reserve members continuing to rely on data for their decisions. The market has eliminated the possibility of aggressive rate cuts and is now anticipating reductions of 25 basis points in both November and December. As expectations for a Fed rate cut diminished, the US dollar maintained its upward trend, finishing at 102.87. Meanwhile, Bitcoin encountered substantial selling pressure, dropping below the $62,000 support level and closing at $60,300.On Thursday (24-10-10)US CPI data for September exceeded expectations, with a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual rate of 2.4%, surpassing the anticipated figures of 0.1% and 2.3%, respectively. The core CPI also indicated a rebound, registering a monthly increase of 0.3% and an annual rate of 3.3%, both above the forecasts of 0.2% and 3.2%. Following the higher-than-expected CPI report, the US dollar index rose above the 103 mark but gave up most of its gains in the later trading session. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continued its downward trend, trading below $59,000 before recovering some losses after the US market closed.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. BTC experienced a rebound from the significant $60,000 level, surpassing $64,000 over the weekend. However, a sell-off commenced after the reopening of the China A-share market post-National holiday, leading to a downturn. The strength of the US dollar, bolstered by robust labour market data and elevated CPI figures, added further pressure on BTC's price, which fell below $59,000 during Thursday's trading session. In this high-risk environment, our desk noted a marked rise in demand for Fan tokens last week.In the Fan Token Zone, there was a significant spike in trading activity, with trading volume increasing by more than 14 times. This remarkable growth was primarily driven by the performance of two of the top five trending assets for the week, which were instrumental in this surge. The excitement surrounding these Fan tokens indicates a rising interest among traders and investors, underscoring the vibrant dynamics of this sector within the cryptocurrency market.The BNB Chain Zone saw a remarkable surge in trading volume, which increased by 30.7%. This uptick was largely driven by the OG Fan Token ($OG), which experienced a highly volatile trading week, boasting over 30 times the usual volume in the spot market. This indicates a vibrant community within the BNB Chain ecosystem. Additionally, the Launchpool Zone recorded a substantial increase in trading volume, rising by 23.1%. The OG Fan Token ($OG) was instrumental in this volume growth.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

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DIA ($DIA) is a blockchain oracle platform that supports data for DeFi applications. In early September, DIA launched Lumina, an oracle stack built on Lasernet, an Ethereum layer-2 rollup. The DIA token will serve as the network's utility token, enabling staking and functioning as the gas fee token. This could introduce an additional burn mechanism for DIA and encourage users to stake their tokens, thereby locking up the supply. A portion of the revenue generated from the oracle will be allocated to repurchasing DIA tokens, enhancing value for holders. DIA experienced a remarkable increase of over 100% within three days, with trading volume exceeding 80 times its 30-day average on the spot market.FTX Token ($FTT) saw a 52.2% rise over the past week, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume on Convert. Speculation regarding the potential reinvestment of funds from the repayment of FTX to investors was a key driver behind FTT’s price surge. According to the filing from the now-defunct exchange last Monday, stakeholders have reached an agreement on the reorganisation plan.This week, three meme coins—Bonk ($BONK), Shiba Inu ($SHIB), and Pepe ($PEPE)—made it to the list of the top 5 weekly coins of interest. All three coins posted positive returns last week, with trading volume on Convert rising by over 100%. The resurgence of these meme coins highlights a broader trend within the cryptocurrency market, where investors are increasingly drawn to the playful and community-driven nature of these assets. The vibrant communities surrounding these coins foster a sense of belonging and engagement, encouraging participants to share ideas, strategies, and memes that further fuel interest and investment.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 8-hour chart.Following last week's establishment of support for Bitcoin (BTC) at $63,000, the cryptocurrency surged past $66,000, buoyed by positive sentiment surrounding the stimulus package announced by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). The stimulus announcement led to a significant rally in the Chinese A-share market, with the Shanghai index surpassing 3,000 points.On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index indicated that U.S. inflation is trending toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target, coinciding with BTC's rise above the $66,000 mark amid a weakening dollar. However, we raised concerns regarding the sustainability of this upward momentum, noting a decline in trading volume within the spot market, which could signal a potential pullback as buying interest waned. The volume continued to decrease over the weekend, and as Asian markets opened on Monday, BTC began to retreat from its peak of $66,500. This pullback may be attributed to a shift in capital flows, with investors reallocating funds from cryptocurrencies to the Chinese stock market. The A-share benchmark index recorded its largest gain since 2008, indicating a strong bullish trend in that market and drawing attention away from digital assets.On Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve has no motivation for more aggressive rate cuts, asserting that all decisions are based on data. His comments bolstered the U.S. dollar and exerted downward pressure on BTC prices.The sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East on Tuesday prompted investors to move away from risk assets, such as U.S. equities and cryptocurrencies, in favour of the U.S. dollar and gold as safe-haven assets. BTC saw a 5% drop following Iran's missile strike on Israel, as fears of increasing geopolitical instability weighed heavily on the crypto market, bringing BTC down to around $61,000.Based on our analysis, we anticipate that the downward trend line (the red line) will serve as support in the short term, likely within the $58,000 to $59,000 range. Should geopolitical concerns overshadow the optimism stemming from central bank liquidity injections, BTC could potentially decline further and test the strong support level at $52,000.

Options Market

The above table is the 25-delta skew on BTC and ETH options with different expiration dates.Recently, a significant Ethereum whale, who was an early participant in the Ethereum ICO back in 2017, sold 19,000 ETH on the market. This individual originally acquired 150,000 ETH at the time of the Ethereum Genesis block. The sale has raised concerns in the market, leading to a more bearish outlook for ETH in the near term.This bearish sentiment is reflected in the 25-delta skew data. For options expiring in 7 days, the skew for ETH options stands at -3.02, while the skew for BTC options with the same expiration is only -1.4. This indicates that options traders are more apprehensive about the potential downside for ETH in the short term.The negative skew observed in both BTC and ETH options suggests a prevailing bearish sentiment towards both cryptocurrencies, likely influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, for options with a 30-day expiration, traders appear to be more optimistic about BTC compared to ETH, as the skew for BTC options has turned positive whereas ETH options remain negative.Interestingly, the skew for longer-dated options for both cryptocurrencies has shifted to positive territory, indicating a bullish sentiment as the year draws to a close. This aligns with our analysis predicting a potential all-time high before the end of 2024.For options traders seeking to capitalise on the upside, constructing an options spread could be beneficial. This strategy involves using two call options with the same expiration date but differing strike prices. For instance, if a trader holds a bullish outlook on BTC by the end of 2024 but is uncertain about the extent of the price increase, a call spread would enable participation in potential gains at a reduced cost.The trader would purchase a call option with a lower strike price set to expire in December 2024 and simultaneously sell a call option with a higher strike price, also expiring in December 2024. This approach allows the trader to collect a premium from the sale of the higher strike call option, effectively lowering the overall cost of the lower strike call premium.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-09-26)In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims decreased to 218,000 this week, a decline from the revised figure of 222,000 (previously reported as 219,000) from the prior week, suggesting ongoing progress in the labour market.Last Friday (24-09-27)The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation gauge utilised by the Federal Reserve, recorded a monthly increase of 0.1% in August. This figure falls short of the anticipated 0.2% and is significantly lower than July's 0.5% rise. The annual rate has a 2.2% increase, which is below the expected 2.3% and July's 2.5% increase, bringing it closer to the Fed's target of 2%.In terms of the Core PCE price index, there was a monthly increase of 0.1% in August, which is less than the forecasted 0.2% and matches July's performance. However, the annualised rate for the core PCE price index increased by 2.7% in August, aligning with expectations and slightly surpassing July's 2.6%.After the PCE price index release, the dollar index declined to 100.157, marking a one-year low, as market participants anticipated a further 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end. Additionally, Bitcoin's price surged to approximately $66,500 during the US trading session, reflecting the market's reaction to the easing inflation in the United States.On Monday (24-09-30)China's central bank announced plans to instruct banks to reduce mortgage rates for existing home loans by October 31. This initiative is part of broader measures aimed at revitalising the struggling property market amid a slowing economy.In Germany, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 0% monthly change in September, falling short of the anticipated 0.1% increase. The annualised rate indicated a 1.6% increase for September, slightly less than the expected 1.7% growth and a decrease from August's 1.9% growth.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Monday that the recent 0.5 percentage point interest rate reduction should not be seen as an indication of similarly aggressive future actions. He expressed optimism regarding the economy's resilience and noted that inflation is expected to continue its downward trend.Following Powell's remarks, the dollar index demonstrated strength, recovering from the one-year low on Friday, while Bitcoin's price fell from $66,000 to $63,500 in response to the strengthening dollar.On Tuesday (24-10-01)The eurozone has estimated a -0.1% change in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, alongside a 1.8% increase on an annual basis. These figures are lower than the previous month's rates of 0.1% and 2.2%, respectively.In the United States, job openings reported in the JOLTs for August rose to 8.040 million, up from July's 7.711 million, surpassing the anticipated 7.640 million openings.During the US trading session, Iran executed a missile strike aimed at Israel, prompting a risk-off sentiment in the markets. This led to a decline of more than 1% in US equities and over 5% in Bitcoin prices, with the BTC price falling below $61,000. Meanwhile, gold prices rose above $2,670 as investors sought refuge in this safe-haven asset.On Wednesday (24-10-02)US ADP nonfarm payroll data indicates that private sector employment in the United States increased by 143,000 in September, with annual wages rising by 4.7% compared to the previous year. This stronger-than-anticipated growth in private sector jobs points to a recovery in the US labour market following the disappointing figures from August.In response to this news, the dollar index experienced a slight uptick supported by a risk-averse market environment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face selling pressure amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, dragging the broader cryptocurrency market back down from a rebound in the Asian trading session.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) faced challenges in sustaining its upward trajectory, ultimately experiencing a pullback after reaching a significant resistance level at $66,500. This resistance proved to be a critical barrier, preventing further gains and prompting a correction in the market. Despite Bitcoin's struggles, the altcoin market showcased a different narrative, with several altcoins exhibiting strong demand, particularly within the meme coin sector.In the Meme Zone, trading activity surged dramatically, with an impressive increase of 87.8% in trading volume. This surge was largely fueled by the performance of three of the top five trending assets of the week, which played a pivotal role in driving this remarkable uptick. The enthusiasm surrounding these meme coins reflects a growing interest among traders and investors, highlighting the dynamic nature of this segment of the cryptocurrency market.Simultaneously, the Fan Token Zone also experienced a notable increase in trading volume, rising by 47.1%. This growth was primarily attributed to the AS Roma Fan Token ($ASR) and the Santos FC Fan Token ($SANTOS), both of which captured the attention of sports fans and investors alike. The engagement in fan tokens underscores the intersection of sports and cryptocurrency, as fans seek to connect with their favourite teams in innovative ways.Moreover, the Seed Zone reported a significant rise in trading volume, with a 35.0% increase building on a previous growth of 58.2% from the week before. This sustained momentum indicates a growing interest in early-stage projects and tokens, with Pepe ($PEPE) emerging as a key driver of this heightened demand. The popularity of Pepe and similar tokens reflects a broader trend of investors seeking out new opportunities within the cryptocurrency landscape, particularly in areas that promise potential for growth and community engagement.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Following a 50 basis point interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve last Wednesday, market sentiment shifted to a bullish outlook, as discussed in our previous update. Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) traded in the vicinity of $63,000, while our team noted a significant increase in demand for altcoins during this period. Notably, meme coins and certain layer-1 tokens, such as Sui ($SUI) and NEAR ($NEAR), garnered considerable attention.Sui ($SUI) has notably outperformed in the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. The price of SUI began its upward trajectory on September 2 at $0.74, reaching a peak of $1.76 on September 24, marking an impressive 137% increase over three weeks. A key factor contributing to this remarkable surge was the recent availability of the Grayscale Sui Trust to accredited investors.Similarly, Bittensor ($TAO) experienced a substantial 66.1% increase over the past week, with trading volume on Convert soaring by over 200%. When the Grayscale Sui Trust was introduced back in August, Grayscale Investment also introduced the Grayscale Bittensor Trust, which focuses on investing in Bittensor ($TAO). The price of TAO began its ascent on September 6 at $228, climbing to a recent high of $590 on September 24, resulting in a 160% gain within three weeks.Another layer-1 token, NEAR ($NEAR), has also seen robust demand in recent weeks, following the trend set by its competitor Sui. Grayscale Investment launched the Grayscale NEAR Trust a month prior to the Grayscale Sui Trust. While the simultaneous rallies of these three tokens may be coincidental, it is prudent to monitor their performance for potential patterns.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 8-hour chart.As highlighted in our previous update, the market sentiment has notably shifted towards a bullish outlook following the unexpected decision by the Federal Reserve to implement a 50 basis point rate cut last Wednesday. This move marks the beginning of a rate-cut cycle, which is generally perceived as a positive signal for global liquidity. Such an environment typically encourages investors to take on more risk, thereby fostering an overall increase in risk appetite across various asset classes.In our analysis of Bitcoin (BTC), we identified critical resistance levels at $63,000 and $65,000 when the cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $61,000. These levels are clearly illustrated by the red bars in the accompanying chart. On the other hand, we have observed that the $50,000 to $52,000 range has established itself as a strong support zone, with $57,000 acting as a local support level, as represented by the green bars. Currently, the $63,000 level is functioning as a support for BTC, while the $65,000 level remains a significant point of resistance. Over the past week, the price of BTC has been fluctuating within this relatively narrow range, indicating a period of consolidation.However, our team has observed a concerning decline in upward market momentum over the last 48 hours, which has been accompanied by a notable decrease in spot market volume. This trend suggests that demand for BTC may be diminishing, while the supply around the $65,000 mark remains substantial. Such dynamics could lead to increased selling pressure if the trend continues.Looking ahead, if we were to witness a substantial upward candle in BTC price that successfully breaks through the $65,000 resistance level with significant trading volume, it would serve as a strong confirmation that bullish sentiment is indeed prevailing in the market. This breakout could potentially pave the way for a swift move towards our next target of $67,000. Should the price manage to overcome the $67,000 resistance, we anticipate a robust rally that would signal the conclusion of a six-month consolidation phase, setting the stage for further upward momentum in the cryptocurrency market. While the current market conditions present both opportunities and challenges, the key levels we are monitoring will be crucial in determining the next steps for BTC and the broader market. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared to react to any significant price movements that may arise in the coming days.

Options Market

The above chart is the 25-delta skew on BTC options in the last two weeks.The 25-delta skew serves as a valuable gauge for assessing market sentiment. By analyzing the differences in premiums between 25-delta calls and puts within the options market, this skew provides insights into the perspectives of market participants. A positive skew indicates that options traders are inclined to pay higher premiums for calls compared to puts, reflecting a preference for potential upside gains, whereas a negative skew suggests a greater inclination toward downside protection.The above chart indicates that the skew in front-end options exhibited an upward trend towards zero after the BTC price found its support at the $57k level. The bullish 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed pushed the skew of the 7-day expired option above 0. However, the front-end skew has recently transitioned into a phase of sideways consolidation, remaining just below the zero threshold. In contrast, the skews for intermediate to long-term options that continue to be above the 0 mark have shown no significant directional changes.This suggests that options traders are adopting a cautious stance regarding the short-term outlook for BTC prices while maintaining a more optimistic view for the long term. Following a drop in BTC prices below the $63,000 mark this morning, all skews experienced a decline, with the skew for the 7-day expired option falling below -2.In conjunction with our analysis of the BTC spot price, our team anticipates that BTC will likely continue to trade sideways beneath the $65,000 resistance level ahead of the US PCE Price Index data release this Friday. The market may experience volatility in response to the PCE data as investors look to it for clues about the Federal Reserve's forthcoming decisions.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-09-19)The Australian Employment Change for August was reported at 47.5K, a decrease from the revised figure of 48.9K in July, which was initially reported as 58.2K. This figure surpassed the consensus estimate of 25.0K. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for August.During the Bank of England's meeting on September 19, the bank rate was held steady at 5%, aligning with economists' predictions. In August, the BoE had reduced the rate by 25 basis points following a drop in the annual inflation rate below 2% in July. Despite the Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis points cut, UK policymakers chose to maintain the current rates.In the United States, initial jobless claims fell to 219,000 this week, down from 231,000 the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in the job market.Last Friday (24-09-20)The Bank of Japan decided to keep its interest rate at 0.25%. Governor Ueda indicated that the bank would take its time to assess the implications of global economic uncertainties, suggesting no immediate plans to increase borrowing costs.The UK experienced robust retail sales growth in August, with a monthly increase of 1.0% and an annual growth rate of 2.5%, both exceeding forecasts of 0.3% and 1.4%, respectively. Core retail sales also demonstrated strong performance, with a monthly rise of 1.1% and an annual growth rate of 2.3%, significantly higher than the predicted 0.5% and 1.1%.On Tuesday (24-09-24)The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rate at 4.35%. Governor Michele Bullock emphasised that interest rate cuts were unlikely in the near future, while also softening the bank's previously hawkish stance by stating that monetary tightening was not under discussion.In the United States, consumer sentiment declined in September, as reflected by the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which fell to 98.7 from 105.6 in August. On Wednesday (24-09-25)The new home sales in the US reached 716,000 in August, surpassing the forecast of 699,000, although this represented a decrease from July's figure of 751,000.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Following the 50 basis points reduction implemented by the Federal Reserve last Wednesday, our desk experienced a notable surge in trading volume across various sectors. While Bitcoin fluctuated between $62,000 and $65,000, there was a marked increase in interest from investors and traders in altcoins. In the Monitoring Zone, trading volume surged by 156.3%, with ARK ($ARK) and Beta Finance ($BETA) being the primary contributors to this impressive growth. Simultaneously, the Solana Zone recorded a 139.6% rise in volume following the price of Solana ($SOL) climbed above $150. There was a strong demand for meme coins within the Solana network, particularly for Book of MEME ($BOME) and Dogwifhat ($WIF). Furthermore, the AI Zone has seen a strong trading volume increase for two consecutive weeks, primarily driven by strong interest in Bittensor ($TAO) and Worldcoin ($WLD).

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Nervos ($CKB) emerged as one of the top-performing tokens last week, achieving a remarkable 103% increase in price. The Nervos Network operates as a proof-of-work layer-2 solution designed to enhance Bitcoin's capabilities by adding programmability and scalability, utilising the RGB++ protocol for its implementation. Sui ($SUI), a layer 1 blockchain and smart contract platform, demonstrated consistent trading interest last week. After it experienced a doubling of trading volume on Convert and a 15% price increase last week, it continued its upward trajectory with an additional 41.2% gain in price and a 56.2% rise in volume on Convert this week. This robust demand has propelled $SUI into the top 30 by market capitalization.Fantom ($FTM), now known as Sonic Labs, is preparing for its most significant upgrade with the launch of the Sonic testnet on September 6. This upgrade will introduce a new high-throughput layer-1 blockchain, complete with a native layer-2 bridge to Ethereum ($ETH). Investors showed strong confidence in this upgrade, and the price soared 34.9% last week.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 1-day chart.The BTC price has been navigating within a blue downward trend for almost six months, managing to remain within the channel rather than experiencing a deeper decline. As previously noted, the $50k/$52k range has acted as a robust support zone, while the $57k level has provided local support. Following a retracement from the $60k mark, the BTC price tested the $57k support before rebounding last weekend. In light of the unexpected 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, risk appetite has returned to the cryptocurrency market, with BTC currently trading around the $62k level. The recent breakout from the downward trendline has enhanced BTC's momentum and improved sentiment in the higher time frames. The red trendline now functions as support, allowing BTC to continue its upward trajectory and challenge resistance levels above, including $63k and $65k. If BTC successfully breaches these two resistance points, a significant resistance level at $68k awaits, situated near the upper boundary of the blue channel.While the 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed indicates a potential improvement in global liquidity, it may also reflect the Federal Reserve's concerns regarding the US economy. Many market participants draw parallels between this rate cut and the one implemented by the Fed in 2007, which ultimately contributed to the Great Financial Crisis 2008. It is widely acknowledged that the Fed possesses more comprehensive insights into the US economy than most investors. The decision to cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the anticipated 25 basis points, signals a shift in tone from the Fed's statements made in July. This has led to investor apprehension regarding a possible impending recession.Our analysis interprets this 50 basis point rate cut as a form of insurance for the Fed, aimed at mitigating potential regret should market conditions deteriorate. If the current market conditions stabilise or improve, particularly in the US labour market, the Fed will have greater flexibility in its future interest rate decisions.

Options Market

The above chart is the implied volatility on BTC options in the last three weeks.The chart indicated a notable increase in implied volatility (IV) for front-end options over the past few days, aligning with our previous discussion regarding anticipated high market volatility surrounding the FOMC meeting. Following Fed Chair Powell's press conference, the front-end IV experienced a significant decline, with the IV of 7-day options dropping from 56% to 47%. As the IV for front-end options (with 7-day and 30-day expirations) fell below the 50% threshold, it created an opportunity for implementing a straddle or strangle options strategy. For options traders without a directional bias who aim to capitalise on fluctuations in IV, constructing a straddle or strangle could be advantageous.A strangle, for instance, is a strategy that combines purchasing (or selling) both an out-of-the-money call and put option on the same underlying asset with the same expiration date. If a trader anticipates high volatility but is uncertain about the direction of price movement, a long strangle would be a suitable choice. This strategy is profitable when the underlying asset experiences significant movement in either direction by expiration, making it appealing for those expecting volatility. Conversely, if a trader expects limited price fluctuations and low volatility, a short strangle may be a viable option. In this case, the trader would collect premiums on both sides if the asset's price remains within the two strike prices on expiry.
Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-09-12)The European Central Bank implemented a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates, aligning with market expectations. This decision after the September meeting represents the second decrease in the deposit rate for the year. Additionally, the ECB revised its growth forecast for 2024 down to 0.8%, a slight adjustment from the previous estimate of 0.9%. In the United States, initial jobless claims increased from 228,000 last week to 230,000 this week, surpassing the anticipated figure of 227,000. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US experienced a monthly increase of 0.2% in August, exceeding the forecasted growth of 0.1% and July's unchanged figure of 0.0%. The Core PPI also rose by 0.3% month-over-month, outpacing the expected 0.2% increase and July's decline of 0.2%. The rise in PPI was attributed to increased service costs, although the overall trend continues to reflect easing inflationary pressures.On Tuesday (24-09-17)In August, US retail sales experienced a modest increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis, surpassing the anticipated decline of 0.2%. However, core retail sales only managed a 0.1% rise during the same timeframe, falling short of the expected 0.2% and July's more robust growth of 0.4%. In Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a year-over-year increase of 2.0% in August, a decrease from July's 2.5% rise. On a monthly scale, the core CPI saw a slight uptick of 0.1%, while the overall CPI experienced a contraction of 0.2%. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada's Core CPI reported a 1.5% annual increase, down from the 1.7% growth noted in July. This year, the Bank of Canada has implemented three interest rate cuts, reducing the rate from 5.0% to 4.25% as of September 4.On Wednesday (24-09-18)During its September meeting, the Federal Reserve implemented a 50 basis point reduction in interest rates, adjusting the target range to between 4.75% and 5.00%. The updated dot plot indicates the possibility of another 50 basis point cut by the end of 2024, along with a further 1% decrease in 2025. Although the unexpected rate cut initially propelled risk assets, leading to an all-time high for the S&P 500 at 5,689 and Bitcoin surpassing $61,000, market dynamics shifted following Fed Chair Powell's remarks, which emphasised a focus on the labour market and suggested a higher neutral rate than pre-pandemic levels. Consequently, the US stock market closed lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices declining by 0.29% and 0.31%, respectively.In August, the United Kingdom experienced a 0.3% rise in its inflation rate, as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), marking a recovery from a 0.2% decrease observed in July. The annual CPI change remained steady at 2.2%, consistent with the figure reported in July. This stability in the annual rate suggests a cautious economic environment as the UK navigates its inflationary pressures.The Eurozone recorded a modest monthly inflation increase of 0.1% in August, with an annual growth rate of 2.2%, which is a decline from July's 2.6% increase. Additionally, the core CPI showed a slight deceleration, falling to 2.8% in August from 2.9% in the previous month. These figures indicate a cooling trend in inflation within the Eurozone, prompting discussions about potential monetary policy adjustments.
Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Market activity experienced an uptick last week, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above the $61,000 mark once again. The unexpected 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve has enhanced confidence and fostered a bullish outlook within the cryptocurrency market. We anticipate an increase in trading volumes in the upcoming weeks as global liquidity continues to improve.In the AI Zone, there was an 8.7% rise in trading volume, largely attributed to the heightened interest in Worldcoin ($WLD). Meanwhile, the Launchpool zone saw a 4.4% increase in volume, driven primarily by a surge in demand for Sui ($SUI). Additionally, the BNB Chain Zone recorded a 2.5% volume increase, mainly fueled by robust demand for BNB ($BNB) alongside the introduction of the new project $CATI on Launchpool.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

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This week, our desk noticed that BTC market volatility started to pick up, with multiple key data releases on the US labour market and CPI before next week’s FOMC meeting. BTC price was closely tracking the US equities performance, while some altcoins had a more independent journey.Sui ($SUI) is a unique Layer 1 blockchain and smart contract platform that seeks to enhance digital asset ownership by making it fast, private, and accessible to everyone. The recently launched Grayscale Sui Trust, by the digital asset manager Grayscale, is available to accredited investors for SUI exposure. The bullish news helped SUI achieve a 15.3% gain in one week while BTC had a 0.8% loss during the same time.Book of Meme ($BOME) also saw strong trade demand on Convert last week. This meme coin saw a 73.4% volume increase on Convert and a 4.1% gain last week, outperforming many other meme coins with similar market capitalization.The layer-1 blockchain Cardano ($ADA) was introduced in 2017 by Charles Hoskinson, a co-founder of Ethereum. Its eagerly awaited "Chang" update was released on September 1st, completing the ecosystem's long-term shift to decentralized governance. Holders of ADA tokens will be able to influence Cardano's future by choosing governance representatives and approving development ideas thanks to this hard fork update. Last week, ADA had a 7.2% gain due to the bullish sentiment after the upgrade.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 8-hour chart.The BTC price has been trading in this blue downward trend for nearly six months, and it has experienced a significant correction, with a 34% drop from the all-time high of $73,777 to $49,000, a market low caused by the carry trade unwind on August 5. As previously discussed, the $50k/$52k range served as a strong support zone, with the $57k level providing local support. BTC prices tested this again in the $50k/52k range last Friday following the disappointing nonfarm payroll data in the United States, raising market concerns about the US economy and the need for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed on September 18. Historically, when the Fed lowers interest rates in poor economic conditions, it usually results in a recession within 12 to 18 months.  And we expressed concern that the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut would trigger another round of risk asset sell-offs, pushing the BTC price below the strong support range of 50k/52k. If that scenario unfolds, the current bull cycle will effectively end and become the shortest in BTC history, aside from the 2013 cycle.This week's CPI data suggests that inflation in the United States is moving in the Fed's favour, and the market is now leaning toward a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed on September 18. The reduced concern about a potential recession in the United States encourages risk-taking. Following the initial reaction to the CPI data, US stocks rallied and recovered all of their losses, closing higher. BTC tracked US equities closely, falling below $55.7k before rising above $57k before the session ended.The FOMC meeting will take place next week, and our desk anticipates some market volatility around the time when Fed Chair Powell delivers his speech after the meeting.

Options Market

The above chart is the 25-delta skewness on BTC options in the last two weeks.A 25-delta skew on options refers to the premium difference between a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put with the same expiry. The negative skew indicates that options traders would prefer to pay a higher premium on puts for downside protection than on calls for upside rewards. It provides a proxy measure for market sentiments by tracking the 25-delta skew across different expirations.As shown in the chart above, front-end BTC options (with a 7-day expiry) have been negative for the last two weeks, with the negative skew further lowering last Friday when BTC was sold below $52.7k. The chart also showed that market sentiment shifted to neutral over the weekend as the Bitcoin price recovered.The skew in medium- to long-term options suggested that options traders were not as bearish as indicated by the front-end options. In the last two weeks, the 60-day, 90-day, and 180-day expired options have all had above-zero skews, while the longer-dated options have maintained steady skews above 0. With the risk backdrop of reduced concern on the US recession and a Fed rate cut on the horizon, risk appetite is encouraged. We anticipate that the skew on BTC options across all durations will rise, indicating some bullish sentiment before/after the FOMC meeting.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-09-05)According to ADP nonfarm employment data, the US private market added only 99k new jobs in August, far below analysts' expectations of 144k. The weak ADP data raised market concerns about the US economy's conditions, increasing the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September.Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 227k, which was lower than the estimated 231k.The S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7 in August, up from the forecasted 55.2.Last Friday (24-09-06)In the United States, nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 142,000 in August, less than 160,000 market expectations. This followed an increase of 89,000 in July, revised from 114,000. The USD index traded volatilely in the Friday session, while US equities fell as concerns about the US economy outweighed risk appetite.The US unemployment rate fell back to 4.2% in August, after hitting 4.3% in July.The unemployment rate in Canada increased to 6.6% in August, exceeding the forecasted 6.5% and July's 6.4%.BTC price experienced a significant sell-off in the Friday US session and found support at 52.5k following an 8% drop.On Monday (24-09-09)The unemployment rate in the UK fell to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June, meeting economists' expectations.The German CPI fell by 0.1% monthly in August, compared to a 0.3% increase in July. The annualized CPI change was 1.9%, which is lower than the 2.3% increase in July.On Wednesday (24-09-11)The US CPI increased by 0.2% month on month in August, matching the pace seen in July. August saw annualized CPI growth of 2.5%, down from 2.9% in July. However, the monthly core CPI growth rate reaches 0.3%, exceeding the estimated 0.2% and July's 0.2%. The stubborn shelter cost served as the primary driver of the unexpectedly higher core CPI growth.The CPI data released on Wednesday solidified the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with an 86% probability. US equities initially lost some ground after the CPI data was released. The market then turned bullish as the Fed's chances of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points increased, and risk assets were bid up. The S&P 500 index finished up 1.07%, while the Nasdaq index rose 2.15%. As a first reaction, the BTC price fell below $55.7k before regaining the $57,000 level by market close.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Market volatility began to rise in early September, and the BTC price closely tracked US equities. Last Friday after the weak job data in the US, the BTC price fell below $52.7k amid rising concerns about the US economy. The sentiment improved over the weekend, and BTC returned to above $57k on Wednesday.Last week, the Megadrop Zone saw a volume increase of 59.8%. The primary reason for the volume increase was the high demand for BounceBit ($BB).The volume of the Storage zone increased by 14.0% during the same time period. The BitTorrent ($BTTC) demand surge was the primary driver of the volume increase in the Storage zone.In addition, the NFT Zone's volume increased by 4.3%. The change was primarily driven by Mines of Dalarnia ($DAR).

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

This week, our desk noticed that BTC market activity was muted while volatility increased. The BTC price was easily influenced by random movements and quickly reversed back to its previous level.Radiant Capital ($RDNT) saw a stunning 33.7% increase last week while the market remained muted. Radiant Capital recently submitted RFP-44, a proposal to refine the distribution strategies initially outlined in RFP-35. The proposed RFP-44 seeks to optimise RDNT token emission and cross-chain liquidity. It features a weekly rebalance and a 24-hour grace period for RDNT holders. RDNT price surged following the news.The price of the popular meme coin Floki Inu ($FLOKI) was down 21.1% last week after on-chain analysts spotted a large deposit into the exchange. The address had been inactive for two and a half years, accumulating the stash in early 2022. The FLOKI market was therefore alerted to a potential market sale from this transaction, and our desk saw a lack of demand supporting the market after the deposit.
Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 1-day chart.As we discussed in mid-August, our desk expected the market to remain muted until the end of August. We expect market activity to pick up in September. BTC has been trading sideways for the past five months, with lower highs and lower lows, as shown in the chart. The market momentum is more skewed toward bears.Following August 5, a new support range formed around the $57k level, which was breached in Thursday's US session. The next strong support level will be the $50k/52k range, which the market tested during the August 5 crash caused by the USD/JPY carry trade unwind. On Tuesday, September 3, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda reiterated that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if market conditions were met. The hawkish statement boosted the JPY while prompting another round of risky asset sales. BTC sold off below $56k but quickly recovered its losses after.The FOMC meeting will be held in two weeks, and the market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed at this meeting. However, given the worse-than-expected labour market and PMI data released this week, the odds of a 50 basis point cut are increasing. Our desk believes that if the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, risky assets may experience another round of panic selling. It has the potential to send Bitcoin's price into the mid-40s, effectively ending this bull cycle driven by spot ETFs.

Options Market

The above table is the 25-delta skewness on BTC and ETH options.A 25-delta skew on options is commonly used as an indicator of market sentiment. A negative skew means that put premiums are higher than call premiums, which suggests that the market is more bearish.As shown above, the indicators show strong bearish sentiment on BTC and ETH options in the short term, but it remains positive in the long run. This market observation corresponds to the recent bearish momentum observed in BTC and ETH prices. As the Fed's interest rate decision approaches, investors and hodl-ers can use options to mitigate downside risks while maintaining their positions and riding out the volatile market.Binance users can use our Options RFQ platform to trade options without worrying about market liquidity on the order book. Users can also reach out to our OTC desk for live quotes for larger sizes that may not be supported on the Option RFQ platform. You can find out more about options RFQ by visiting: https://www.binance.com/en/vip-portal/trading?ref=OTC-Option

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-08-29)Germany's monthly CPI fell by 0.1% in August, compared to the estimated 0.0% and 0.3% increase in July. The annualised CPI rose by 1.9%, less than the expected 2.1% and the 2.3% seen in July. The inflation in Germany serves as a proxy for measuring inflation in the eurozone. Germany's lower-than-expected inflation raises the prospect of another rate cut by the ECB at its September meeting.In Q2, the US GDP is expected to grow by 3.0% QoQ, exceeding the previously estimated 2.8% growth rate. The stronger-than-expected GDP growth eased some market concerns about a hard landing for the US economy. This week's initial jobless claims in the US were 231k, similar to the number reported last week.Last Friday (24-08-30)In August, the CPI reading in the Eurozone increased by 0.2% month over month. The annualised CPI rose 2.2%, which was lower than the 2.6% increase in July. The eurozone's slowing inflation paved the way for the ECB to cut interest rates again in September.The US inflation rate, based on changes in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, remained at 2.5% per year in July, lower than the market expectation of 2.6%. The monthly personal consumption expenditure price index rose by 0.2%, as expected.The core PCE price index increased by 2.6% over the same period, matching the increase in June but lower than the market forecast of 2.7%. The core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month over month, as expected.The July PCE data were in line, paving the way for the Fed's first rate cut of the cycle in September.On Tuesday (24-09-03)Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Tuesday that if the economy and prices perform as expected, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates.The US ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 47.2, below the forecasted 47.5. On September's first trading day, GPU chipmaker Nvidia experienced a 10% selloff. After the market closed, the headline revealed that the US Justice Department (DOJ) had issued subpoenas to Nvidia Corp. and other companies in an ongoing antitrust investigation. On Wednesday (24-09-04)The Bank of Canada reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since June. Following the decision, its governor, Tiff Macklem, stated that it was "reasonable to expect further cuts" if inflation kept returning to the central bank's target of 2%.US job openings fell from 7.910 million in June to 7.673 million in July, far below the forecasted 8.090 million. The weak job opening data increased the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed in September. Following the news, the US dollar fell and the Bitcoin price rose above 58k.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Throughout the last week of August, our desk observed a general slowing of market activity. While BTC traded sideways below $60k with low volumes, our desk did not observe a selloff in altcoins with high volumes.Last week, the Payments Zone experienced a 34.4% volume drop. The main reason for the volume decrease was the low trading demand for BTC.The volume of the POW zone decreased by 34.9% over the same time period. The Bitcoin ($BTC) volume decrease had the greatest impact in this zone.In addition, the Metaverse Zone dropped by 38.8%. The volume decrease was primarily driven by Mines of Dalarnia ($DAR).

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

This week, our desk noticed that BTC volatility remained muted, while some old projects launched in the previous cycle experienced unusual trading demands.Syscoin ($SYS) is the native token that underpins the eponymous protocol and forms a Layer 2 network to enable rollups on Bitcoin, thereby improving the network's scalability. Syscoin was first listed on Binance in September 2020, reaching an all-time high of $1.33 at the beginning of 2022. Recently, the announcement of the launch of the USDS-Margined SYS Perpetual Contract on the Binance Futures market fueled market demand for this token, and the SYS price spiked by more than 100% in the last seven days.SuperRare ($RARE) is a high-end NFT art marketplace which positions itself in the NFT space as a highly selective art gallery. The platform spends much time reviewing work before it's available for sale, making investors more confident in its quality. The recent bid-up was fueled by a combination of technical indicators and growing investor interest. The RARE price soared over 228% in the last seven days.Tron ($TRX) saw strong demand on the market last week, driven by the SunPump memecoin deployer on the network. TRX price surged 17.9%, and the blockchain’s daily revenue reached an all-time high of $3.84 million a few days ago, surpassing the daily revenue generated by its rivals, Ethereum and Solana.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 1-day chart.As we discussed last week, the $60k/$61k level had become a strong resistance level for BTC, and it could face another retest on the downside before market demand builds.Last Thursday, BTC fell below $56k after the strong retail sales growth data print in the United States. US equities soared on bullish sentiment fuelled by a lower risk of a US recession. However, the risk-on sentiment did not spread from US stocks to cryptocurrency. Instead, BTC and the broader crypto market fell sharply while the S&P 500 index rose 1.6% on the same day. BTC quickly recovered from its low of 56k to $57.5k after the US market close last Thursday and found its way back to the $60k level over the weekend.Starting last Saturday, the BTC price moved toward the $61k resistance level, forming higher highs and higher lows along the way. It is currently trading at approximately $60,500. In recent days, our desk has observed strong demand among certain altcoins. It indicates that market sentiment is improving, and the bullish sentiment from altcoins contributes to the BTC price recovering and testing the high bound of the strong resistance level around $61,000.However, our desk is concerned about the current upward movement in the BTC price, as trading volume has been low in recent days. Before we can confirm that the BTC price is ready for the next leg up, we need to see a larger volume on the market to back up our bullish thesis.Fed Chair Powell will deliver his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, and any hints in his comments about the pace of rate cuts will shift market appetite for risk assets, particularly digital assets.Our desk anticipates some volatility this Friday, and it should provide some clarity on the next move in the Bitcoin price following Powell's speech.

Options Market

The above chart is the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC options with various tenors.The chart shows that IVs remain low in the short to medium term (around 50%) and higher in the long term (around 60%). The BTC price has been moving in a narrow range over the last few days, and the low realised volatility contributed to lower IVs for short-dated options.As the Jackson Hole conference approaches on Friday, we anticipate increased volatility in front-end options. Any hawkish remarks or hints from Fed Chair Powell could shake the capital markets and cause a spike in volatility.Investors can also use options to mitigate downside risk while keeping their Bitcoin holdings. If investors are bearish on the BTC price in the near term, they can buy puts to hedge against the downside risks. The current low IVs on near-term options present an excellent opportunity for investors to hedge at low premiums.Binance users can now use our Options RFQ platform to trade options without worrying about market liquidity on the order book. Users can also reach out to our OTC desk for live quotes for larger sizes that may not be supported on the Option RFQ platform. You can find out more about options RFQ by visiting: https://www.binance.com/en/vip-portal/trading?ref=OTC-Option

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-08-15)In July, US retail sales increased by 1.0% month on month, exceeding the forecasted growth rate of 0.4%. During the same period, core retail sales increased by 0.4%, exceeding the expected growth rate of 0.1%. The stronger-than-expected retail sales growth alleviated market concerns about a possible US recession, increasing market confidence and appetite for risky assets. The US equity market saw significant gains, with the S&P 500 index rising 1.61% and the Nasdaq index rising 2.46%. However, the optimism did not spread to the cryptocurrency market, with BTC falling 1.95% and ETH falling 3.44%.US initial jobless claims fell to 227k from 234k the previous week, indicating the strength of the US labour market. On Tuesday (24-08-20)Eurozone inflation rose slightly to 2.6% in July, up from 2.5% in June, matching economists' expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year on year in July, in line with preliminary data released two weeks ago and matching the inflation rate in both May and June. This emphasises the underlying price pressures in the Eurozone, staying well above the central bank's 2% target. As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the annual inflation in Canada increased by 2.5% in July, matching market expectations and falling from 2.7% in June. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's Core Consumer Price Index rose 1.7% from the previous year, a slight decrease from the 1.9% growth seen in June.On Wednesday (24-08-21)The Labor Department reported Wednesday that the U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in the 12-month period ending March 2024. The -0.5% revision to the total payroll level is the largest since 2009, raising market concerns about the rapidly cooling labour market in the United States.This Friday (24-08-23)Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The market is looking for hints from Powell's remarks about how quickly and far the Fed could cut rates.  

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, the BTC price struggled to break through the strong resistance at $61k for more upside potential, while some altcoins began to pump along with high trading demand.Last week, the Megadrop Zone had the highest increase in trading demand on Convert. Trading volumes for Lista DAO ($LISTA) and BounceBit ($BB) have quadrupled over the last seven days, indicating strong market interest in these two projects.The volume of the NFT pool zone increased by 272.8% during the same period. SuperRare ($RARE) was the primary driver of this strong volume growth.Additionally, the Fan Token Zone increased by 123.9%. Alien Worlds ($TLM) was the primary contributor to this organic volume increase.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

This week, our desk noticed that market activity has been slow following the recovery from the August 5 flash sell-off. Last week, US equities performed strongly, while Bitcoin and the cross-border crypto market remained relatively weak.While the BTC price remains in a range with low volume, our desk has noticed strong demand for some mid- to large-cap coins/tokens, such as Sui ($SUI), Terra Luna Classic ($LUNC), and SATS (Ordinals) ($1000SATS).Sui, a descendant of Facebook's defunct Diem project, raised $330 million from prominent venture capitalists before launching in May 2023. Since then, it has accumulated more than $600 million in TVL. The recent bullish trend can be attributed to strong holdership, despite significant token unlocks and Grayscale's new Sui Trust introduction. Grayscale, a leading digital currency asset manager, has announced the launch of the Grayscale Sui Trust, which allows accredited and institutional investors to invest in this cryptocurrency.The Terra Luna Classic ($LUNC) price soared by more than 23% last Saturday, as the community successfully passed a critical upgrade, which could shape the token's future trajectory. The newly approved Tax2Gas upgrade solves the labour-intensive manual calculation issues by automating the tax calculation process. Notably, this automation is expected to reduce the possibility of errors while increasing overall transaction efficiency within the LUNC ecosystem.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 1-day chart.As we discussed last week, BTC failed to further extend its rapid recovery move, indicating that the rebound from $50k to $61k was more likely a recovery than a reversal of a downward trend.The $60k/61k range served as a strong support level since the BTC price reached its previous cycle high of $69,000 in March 2024. However, this range has now turned into a resistance level, and the bulls have attempted to break it in recent days but failed to keep the price above it.The US CPI data was released on Wednesday, and it is consistent with market expectations. However, the Fed's likelihood of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September fell from 75% last week to 34% following the CPI announcement. The BTC price was extremely sensitive to such a change, falling below $59k shortly thereafter.As we mentioned last week, our desk expected the BTC price to retest the $52k support range in the coming weeks. If the price cannot hold above $52k, BTC will most likely fall to the price range starting with a 4.Suppose the Bitcoin price finds support at $52k. In that case, we expect it to continue its sideways movement within the bull flag range until the Fed announces its first rate cut of the cycle or an innovation is introduced on the Bitcoin network.Our desk believes that the trading volume of BTC and the broader crypto market will remain muted for the rest of the month, with momentum picking up in September.

Options Market

The above chart is the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC options with various tenors.Following the volatile sell-off on August 5 and the subsequent rapid rebound, IVs gradually returned to the 60% range across various expirations. The IV of 7-day options traded lower following the CPI announcement on Wednesday US time, and it is approaching 50%.The IVs of BTC options with intermediate tenors are also trending lower, whereas the IVs of options with 90- and 180-day expiries remain around 60%.The options market is currently pricing low volatility in the next 30 to 60 days, with IVs for options of both tenors trading below 55%. However, we have Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole conference next week and Nvidia's earnings release at the end of August. Furthermore, the September FOMC meeting is only one month away, during which the Fed will decide whether or not to cut interest rates for the first time in this cycle.  With current IVs trading lower, options traders can profit from going long on volatility if any unexpected results arise in the coming days.Using a long strangle or straddle option can help you profit from volatility. A strangle option consists of a call and a put with the same expiry but distinct strikes, whereas a straddle option has the same expiry and strike. Being long with either approach can be profitable if there are any sparks in IVs.Binance users can now use our Options RFQ platform to trade large options without worrying about market liquidity on the order book. Users can also reach out to our OTC desk for live quotes if the size is too large and not supported on the Option RFQ platform. You can find out more about options RFQ by visiting: https://www.binance.com/en/vip-portal/trading?ref=OTC-Option

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-08-08)US initial jobless claims fell from 250,000 last week to 233,000 this week, lower than the expected 241,000.The German CPI rebounded slightly in July, with a monthly change of 0.3%, up from 0.1% in June, and an annual change of 2.3%, up from 2.2% in June.Last Friday (24-08-09)In July, Canada lost 2,800 jobs, rather than the expected 26,900 job gain. The unemployment rate was 6.4%, unchanged from June. On Monday (24-08-12)Canada's new building permit issuance fell 13.9% from June, instead of the expected 5.6% increase. In June, the UK saw a 97,000 job gain on a three-month moving average, up from a 19,000 job gain in May.The UK unemployment rate was 4.2% in June, lower than the forecasted 4.5% and 4.4% in May.On Tuesday (24-08-13)In July, the US PPI increased by 0.1% month on month, less than the expected 0.2%. The core PPI changes monthly by 0.0%, which is less than the expected 0.2% increase. The lower PPI number could lead to lower inflation in the United States later this year, increasing the chance for a rate cut by the Fed this year.In July, the monthly CPI in the United Kingdom fell by 0.2% after rising by 0.1% in June. The annual CPI in the UK fell to 2.2% instead of the expected 2.3%, but it was still higher than June's 2.0% CPI reading.On Wednesday (24-08-14)In July, the US CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 2.9% annually. Core CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 3.2% annually. The CPI data is broadly consistent with market expectations, decreasing the likelihood of a 50bps rate cut by the Fed in September. Risk assets were sold off following the CPI readings, but most of them recovered the losses before the market closed. The S&P 500 index rose 0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrial index rose 0.61%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index rose only 0.03% at market close.Gold fell 0.87%, closing at $2,486, while crude oil fell 1.44%, closing at $77.22.BTC fell 2.4% and traded below $59k, while ETH fell 2.7% and traded around $2,660 following the CPI announcement.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, the market calmed down following the August 5 flash sell-off, with the VIX trading back below 30. The Bitcoin price, along with the altcoin markets, has traded sideways. Overall, our desk has observed a slow market over the last seven days.Last week, the Fan Token Zone experienced high trading demand on Convert. Alpine F1 Team Fan Token ($ALPINE) is a major contributor to this zone's 3.3% growth.The volume of the Launch pool zone decreased by 22.3% during the same time period. Pendle ($PENDLE) and Notcoin ($NOT) were the two tokens with the largest volume drops in the zone.We also saw a 35.9% decrease in the Liqud Staking Zone. Lido DAO ($LDO) volume fell the most in this zone.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

This week, due to a spike in market volatility, our desk saw strong trading demand across the board. Binance users use Convert to hedge their risk during volatile market conditions, allowing users to lock in a price in volatile conditions and be confident that the order will be filled at the exact price displayed on-screen, with no additional fees. This feature provides great effectiveness to our users during volatile markets when they are concerned about experiencing large slippage and not having their orders filled in large market moves.Gifto ($GFT), which launched in 2017, is a blockchain-based gifting platform. It enables users to create and share custom NFTs, such as artwork and e-cards. The platform also provides staking to earn GFT tokens, yield farming, and a store for trading cryptocurrency. GFT price recently outperformed the market as a result of the launch of Gifto's new bridge product. Mantra ($OM) is a leading project in the Real World Asset (RWA) space that experienced a significant rally in July. It reached an all-time high of $1.41 by the end of July and demonstrated resilience during the market sell-off, with only an 11.5% retracement last week, whereas ETH dropped 23%.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 1D chart.As we discussed last week, we expected the Bitcoin price to remain within the blue bull flag for some time before breaking out to the upside. We also listed the $63.8k and $60k levels as support.However, the poor labour market data released in the United States last Friday sparked market concerns about a possible US recession and delayed Fed action. The S&P 500 index fell 2.06% this week, while the Nasdaq 100 index dropped 3.06%. The Bitcoin price was hovering around our strong support level of $60,000.On Monday morning in Asia, panic selling on the Japanese stock market dragged down all asset classes, and the VIX surged to levels only seen during the pandemic in the last four years. The Nikkei 225 index plunged, triggering the circuit breaker; USD/JPY fell to 141; and Bitcoin fell more than 15% to $49,000 in a few hours. The price of ETH fell by more than $400 in 15 minutes, causing massive liquidation both on-chain and on the exchange.Although the Bitcoin price reclaimed $55k after the US market opened, market sentiment remained extremely bearish, with a $168 million outflow from Bitcoin ETFs on Monday. Now the question remains: “Have we bottomed out?”The daily chart shows that the BTC price broke the bull flag and broke the $63.8k, $60k, and $52k support levels very quickly on Monday. However, the long needle on the daily close indicated that demand came in below $55k, and we expect the $52k level to remain a strong support.However, the crash may have some longer-term consequences for the global market, with the BTC price likely to retest the $52k support level in the next two weeks. If the price finds strong support at this level and quickly recovers to the upside, BTC could stay in the bull flag and trade in the $55k-$68k range for the rest of the month. 

Options Market

The above chart shows the at-the-money implied volatility history for BTC options with various tenors.The IVs of BTC options elevated on August 5 when the market crashed, with the 7-day expired options trading at 90% and the 30-day expired options trading at 71%.After the US market opened and the BTC price recovered, the IVs of BTC options gradually retraced, and BTC options with various expiries now trade around the 60% level.With the peak period of market volatility over, we recommend that traders take longer-term bullish positions in anticipation of a Fed cut cycle. A bull spread of $60k/70k expiring Dec 27 would provide traders with a favourable return with lower costs.Binance users can now use our Options RFQ platform to trade large options without worrying about market liquidity on the orderbook. Users can also reach out to our OTC desk for live quotes if the size is too large and not supported on the Option RFQ platform. You can find out more about options RFQ by visiting: 
https://www.binance.com/en/vip-portal/trading?ref=OTC-Option

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-08-01)The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates to 5.00%, as expected by the market. It is the first rate cut by the BoE since 2020, but Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the move would not herald a rapid succession of additional cuts.US initial jobless claims increased to 249k this week from 235k last week, exceeding the expected 236k. The higher-than-expected initial jobless claims number suggested that the US labour market was weakening.In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 46.8, significantly lower than the forecasted 48.8 and June's 48.5. Concerns emerged around the state of the US economy as the manufacturing sector continued to contract. US equities closed down, with the S&P 500 index down 1.37% and the Nasdaq index down 2.44%.Last Friday (24-08-02)The US nonfarm payroll increased by only 114k in July, much lower than the estimated 176k and the reported 179k in June.The unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June, exceeding economists' forecasts of 4.1%.

Because of the poor labour market data, the market is concerned about a potential recession in the United States. As a result, the US stock market fell further and closed in the red, with the S&P 500 index down 1.84% and the Nasdaq index down 2.38%. On Monday (24-08-05)The Japanese stock market fell sharply in response to the Bank of Japan's hawkish interest rate hike and the possibility of a US recession. The Nikkei 225 fell 12.4%, its worst drop since 1987, while USD/JPY fell to 141, the lowest level in eight months.The selloff pressure spread from Asia's stock markets to the crypto market, with BTC falling more than 12% to $49,000 and ETH plummeting to 2,111, the daily lowest. On Tuesday (24-08-06)The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that the interest rate would remain at 4.35% for the sixth consecutive meeting in August. Governor Michele Bullock declared that a rate cut was unlikely for the rest of the year, addressing the central bank's primary focus on fighting sticky inflation.Following market volatility, the BOJ deputy governor signalled a dovish stance, stating that BOJ will not hike rates when markets are unstable.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. On Monday, the Japanese stock market fell by more than 12%, triggering a circuit breaker, and selling pressure spread to the cryptocurrency market. The Bitcoin price fell by more than 15% in 24 hours, reaching $49,000, its lowest of the day. The price of ETH dropped by more than 20% in 24 hours. Other altcoins saw a more severe selloff. The volume of the Launchpad zone increased by 72.5% as trading demand for Gifto ($GFT) and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance ($FET) rose. Both tokens are on our Top 5 weekly coins of interest list.The volume of the RWA zone increased by 64.3% over the same time period. Mantra ($OM) and Pendle ($PENDLE) are the two largest contributors to the volume increase.We also saw a 35.3% increase in the Monitoring zone, owing to strong demand for Gifto ($GFT). 

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

This week, our desk observed strong trading demand for small-cap altcoins across multiple zones.In recent weeks, our desk has observed unusual demand for tokens with a monitoring tag on the exchange. IRISnet ($IRIS) is one of eleven tokens included in the monitoring tag extension, which was announced in early July. The IRIS price surged last Thursday on high volume, doubling in less than 48 hours. After reaching a one-month high of $0.024 on July 26, it gradually fell back, gaining 28.6% in the last seven days.Book of Meme ($BOME) has increased by 17.3% in the last seven days, resulting in an increase in futures trading activity. On July 30, open interest in BOME futures reached a monthly high of $85 million on the exchange, rising by more than 100% in the last week.JasmyCoin ($JASMY) is a cryptocurrency project by Tokyo-based Internet of Things (IoT) provider Jasmy Corporation. JASMY received a lot of attention on social media for its bullish momentum after the price rose to $0.029 last week. The majority of the gain was reversed, leaving it with a 7.3% gain over the last seven days. 

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 8-hour chart.As we discussed last week, the BTC price has been moving within the bull flag for nearly five months. Following our report last week, BTC price rose and tested the upper boundary of the blue bull flag, but was rejected.The $63,800 level served as the support level for the past two weeks. If this support level fails, the BTC price will rapidly move to the $60k strong support level, as there are no other strong supports in the way. If that occurs, we may have to wait another month before BTC recovers and breaks above this bull flag.Macroeconomic conditions have continued to influence the BTC price over the last few days. As mentioned in our <Macro at a glance> section, two central banks made interest rate decisions on Wednesday.The Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates by 15 basis points at its July meeting, bringing its short-term rate to 0.25%. It also announced plans to cut its bond purchase amount in half by early 2026. The Fed announced that it would keep its interest rate at 5.50%, as widely expected. Fed Chair Powell's dovish comments on the September rate cut boosted the US equities market, as the Nasdaq closed up 2.64%. However, the risk appetite sparked by the potential rate cut did not last long, as the Bitcoin price fell following Powell's speech.

Options Market

The above chart is the 25-delta skew for ETH options with various tenors.The trading of Ethereum spot ETFs in the US market began on July 23. Grayscale's Ethereum Trust ETF experienced a massive outflow, while other ETFs only captured a fraction of it. The net outflow from ETH spot ETFs on the first trading day weighed heavily on the ETH price.This price action was also seen in the options market. Our 25-delta skew chart above shows that the skew on the short-dated options fell sharply from +2 to -5 that day. It revealed that the market was skewed to selling calls and buying puts on the first trading day of ETH spot ETFs.Although the ETH spot price recovered from its low of $3085 set last Thursday, market sentiment did not. As the chart shows, short-dated ETH options remain skewed to the downside. The 25-delta skew for 30-day expired options is also hovering near the zero mark. Our desk believes the market sentiment on ETH is neutral, and it will take some time before the market turns bullish and drives the ETH price higher. We will continue to monitor the options market and share our view with you.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-07-24)US GDP increased at a 2.8% annualised rate in the second quarter, exceeding the 2.0% forecast. That was twice the 1.4% growth rate in the first quarter.The personal consumption expenditures (PEC) price index, a key Fed measure, increased by 2.6% in the quarter, down from 3.4% in Q1. Core PCE prices increased by 2.9%, down from 3.7%.US initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 235,000, slightly lower than the estimated 237,000.Durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 6.6% on a monthly basis in June, while economists forecasted 0.3% growth in the same period.Last Friday (24-07-25)The June personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in the United States rose 0.1% month on month, meeting market expectations. The annual growth rate has slowed to 2.5% from 2.6% in May.The core PCE price index rises 0.2%, as expected; it is up 2.6% annually, slightly more than the estimated 2.5%.On Tuesday (24-07-30)The German monthly CPI rose 0.3% in July, up from 0.1% in June. The annualised CPI growth rate was 2.3%, up from 2.2% in June.The US CB consumer confidence index rose to 100.3 in July, up from 97.8 in June.US job openings fell to 8.184 million in June from 8.230 million in May.On Wednesday (24-07-31)The Bank of Japan announced that it would raise its short-term interest rate to 0.25% from 0.10% and gradually reduce the amount of bonds purchased through its quantitative easing program to half the current rough target by early 2026.In July, the Eurozone CPI changed by 0.0% month on month, down from 0.2% increase in June. The annualised CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly more than the 2.5% increase seen in June. Core CPI increased by 2.9% on an annualised basis, which is consistent with data from June.The US ADP nonfarm payroll increased by only 122,000 in June, down from 155,000 in May.The Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate between 5.25% and 5.5%, citing "some further progress" toward its 2% inflation target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during his press conference that a rate cut in September is "on the table," as long as inflation data remains encouraging. 

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, Ethereum spot ETFs began trading, and the market experienced a massive outflow from Grayscale's ETH Trust ETF. As a result, the ETH price fell more than 10% in three days, from $3540 to $3085, causing ETH-related altcoins to underperform.Last week, our desk experienced high trading demand in the Storage zone. Storj ($STORJ) is a key driver of this zone's 41.0% growth.The Monitoring zone's volume increased by 9.3% during the same time period. AirDAO ($AMB) and ForTube ($FOR) are the two tokens that are driving up volume in the zone.We also saw a 7.3% increase in the POW zone, which was primarily driven by strong demand for Bitcoin. The BTC price remained relatively stable even as the ETH price fell sharply due to outflows from ETH ETFs.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

This week, our desk experienced high demand for meme coins, particularly dog-themed meme coins such as Dogecoin ($DOGE), Floki ($FLOKI ), and Dogwifhat ($WIF). Following the SEC's approval of ETH spot ETFs, which began trading on Tuesday, our desk saw strong market demand for ETH-related altcoins such as Ether.fi ($ETHFI ) and Ethereum Name Service ($ENS). Ether.fi ($ETHFI ) is a non-custodial staking protocol that runs on the Ethereum blockchain. Following the approval and trading of ETH spot ETFs this week, the project's native token, ETHFI, was traded as a high beta token against ETH. The ETHFI price rose by 20%, from $2.29 to $2.76, before the ETH ETFs began trading on Tuesday. It has fallen 30% since, reversing all gains prior to the first day of ETH ETF trading, and is currently trading at $2.03.On the other hand, Solana ($SOL ) demonstrated resilience when the ETH price fell. Rumours on social media suggest that Solana ($SOL ) may be the next cryptocurrency to receive SEC ETF approval. VanEck, a major ETF issuer, filed the ETF application for the VanEck Solana Trust in June 2024. With the bullish backdrop, SOL gained 8.4% in the last seven days, while ETH fell 7.7%.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 1-day chart.Bitcoin price rose from $63.5k to $68k this Monday, with the bullish sentiment fueled by the SEC's approval of ETH spot ETFs, which began trading on Tuesday. However, the ETH price fell sharply on the first day of ETH spot ETF trading, as the market saw a significant outflow from Grayscale's converted Ethereum Trust ETF. The ETH price plunged below $3,100 in Thursday's US session as market concerns about the Grayscale outflow persisted. A similar situation occurred in January when Bitcoin spot ETFs began trading. BTC fell by more than 20% in 12 days, following a 37% increase in three weeks.Will the ETH price repeat the rhythm of BTC price moves after the spot ETFs begin trading? Our desk believes it will, and the pace will accelerate. Given the differences in size between Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF and the Ethereum Trust ETF, as well as the outflow rates on both ETFs in the first few trading days, the data suggest that the outflow rate on Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF has been much faster than that of its Bitcoin Trust ETF.Now let's take a step back and look at the Bitcoin price chart. The BTC price is currently trading under a bull flag, which had a fake breakout in June. We should pay more attention to the potential upside breakout, which could propel the Bitcoin price to $85k in September, along with the Federal Reserve's first rate cut.Once the outflow from the Grayscale ETH ETF finishes, the capital inflow from TradFi could likely drive the ETH price higher, as will the BTC price. If that happens, we have a good chance of breaking out from the bull flag highlighted in the above chart.However, Mt. Gox's repayment and potential US government sales continue to pose significant risks to our bullish Bitcoin thesis. Both scenarios have the potential to significantly increase market supply while shifting market sentiment.

Options Market

The above chart is the 25-delta skew for BTC options with various tenors.The chart shows that the skew of near-term BTC options has crossed the 0 line and has been rising over the last two weeks. It indicates that market sentiment is shifting from bearish to strongly bullish for near-term BTC price action.Former US President Donald Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference on Saturday could fuel such strong bullish sentiment in short-term price action. This election year, cryptocurrency has emerged as a political issue. Trump's stance on cryptocurrency represents a significant U-turn. Wild rumours are swirling that Trump will announce the creation of a US Bitcoin strategic reserve during his much-anticipated appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. Given the "buy the rumour, sell the news" market behaviour of recent months, our desk advises traders to manage their risk carefully and be prepared for both scenarios.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-07-18)The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its interest rate at 4.25%. President Christine Lagarde stated that the decision on a potential rate cut in September remains "wide open," while downplaying concerns about persistent price pressures. The ECB had previously implemented its first 25 basis point rate cut in June.In the United States, initial jobless claims surged to 243,000 from the previous week's 223,000, exceeding the estimated 229,000. This indicates a shift towards a more balanced labour market over time.In England, retail sales for June fell by 1.6% month-on-month, significantly worse than the expected 0.6% decline, following a 2.9% increase in the previous month. Core retail sales also dropped by 1.5%, deeper than the anticipated 0.5% retracement.Last Friday (24-07-19)Canada experienced an 0.8% month-on-month decline in retail sales in May, worse than the expected 0.5% drop. Core retail sales fell by 1.3%, worse than the estimated 0.5% decline, following a 1.7% increase in April.On Monday (24-07-22)China surprised markets by lowering a key short-term policy rate as well as benchmark lending rates in order to boost domestic growth. Both the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPRs) were reduced by 10 basis points to 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively.On Wednesday (24-07-24)The Bank of Canada cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive month, bringing it down to 4.50%. The bank indicated that further cuts are likely if inflation continues to cool as forecasted, reiterating that inflation should sustainably return to its 2% target by the second half of 2025.Business activity in the US private sector grew at a healthy rate in July, with the preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 55 from 54.8 in June. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 from 51.6 during the same period, while the Services PMI increased to 56 from 55.3.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Over the weekend, President Biden announced that he had dropped out of the 2024 US presidential election in favour of his Vice President Kamala Harris. BTC initially surged to $68k before losing the majority of its gains due to the US equities correction led by big tech companies. Our desk observed a less active market over time.Last week, our desk saw strong trading demand for Solana ($SOL ) in the Layer 1/ Layer 2 zone, while Ripple ($XRP) volume retraced following the cancellation of a meeting that could lead to a private settlement between the SEC and Ripple Labs.Floki ($FLOKI ) has continued to attract market attention, and our desk saw an increase in volume for this dog-themed meme coin this week. However, the low trade demand for My Neighbor Alice ($ALICE) outweighed the volume gain from trading Floki ($FLOKI ) in the Metaverse zone.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Following the delisting announcement for Mdex ($MDX), this token received a lot of market attention, and strong market demand emerged in the market. The weekly volume increased 392%, with a weekly return of 27.5%.Worldcoin ($WLD) experienced a similarly strong market demand after the project team announced that the vesting period for early investors and team members would be extended from three to five years. This announcement would reduce the expected increase in circulating supply. $WLD rose 15% immediately following the announcement and gained 47.3% in the last week.Over the weekend, rumours circulated that Ripple Labs might settle its ongoing legal dispute with US regulators soon. The rumour boosted the Ripple ($XRP) price above $0.63 on Wednesday, but it fell sharply on Thursday after the scheduled private meeting between the SEC and Ripple was cancelled. In 2020, the US SEC accused Ripple Labs, the blockchain developer and creator of the XRP token, of raising more than $1.3 billion in 2013 by selling XRP in an unregistered security offering to investors.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement since the beginning of 2024.Bitcoin recovered from its $54k low following the completion of the German government's 50k BTC sale. The rebound was primarily driven by technical recovery following the oversold condition.The assassination attempt during Trump's rally in Pennsylvania this weekend was shocking. Donald Trump, the former president of the United States and the Republican Party's presumptive nominee for the 2024 presidential election, was shot and wounded in the right ear.The assassination did not derail Trump; rather, the 2024 US presidential election odds showed that Trump's winning chances increased. Capital market cheered for the potential presidential election win by Trump, and BTC surged above $64k in Monday's session. However, the $11,000 rally over the last few days could be a recovery rather than a trend reversal. There are several key levels to monitor as the BTC recovers further. The $63.8k level is an important level to monitor for Bitcoin price. It served as the resistance level during the last few rebounds. The $66k level is also a key resistance level.On Wednesday morning, Asia time, an on-chain movement from the Mt. Gox wallet alarmed the market and sent the BTC price plummeting. Traders believed the move was intended to repay Mt. Gox's creditors, and it could result in another round of BTC sales. The price movement also showed that headlines have a strong influence on the BTC price. Our team expects the BTC price to remain sideways in the coming weeks until a substantial development on the blockchain drives the price to a new all-time high.With the rumour that ETH spot ETFs will be listed on stock exchanges next week, our desk noticed that the market was shifting focus from BTC to ETH. If we see a significant capital inflow into ETH ETFs after the listing, it could boost the bullish momentum of ETH and thus the entire crypto market.

Options Market

The above chart is the 25-delta skew for BTC options with various tenors.According to the chart, the skew of near-term BTC options has been rising in the last two weeks, crossing the zero line on July 13 following the Trump assassination attempt. It is the first indication that the market is shifting its outlook from bearish to neutral for BTC's near-term performance.After the BTC movement from the Mt. Gox wallet, traders panicked and sold, but the options market showed that the near-term skew recovered from the 0 line following the initial reaction. The chart shows that longer-term options have a higher skew toward calls. The skew showed a strong upward trend, particularly for 30-day expiry options. Instead of focusing on puts for downside protection, options traders are positioning on calls with upside potential.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-07-11)In June, the US CPI came in cooler than expected, with a 0.1% monthly drop versus an estimated 0.1% increase and a 3.0% annual growth versus an estimated 3.1% increase. The US dollar fell immediately after the CPI data was released, but recovered some of the loss before the market closed.US initial jobless claims fell to 222k this week from 239k the previous week.Last Friday (24-07-12)In June, US PPI increased by 0.2% month on month, exceeding expectations of 0.1% and 0.0% in May. The annualised PPI change in June was 2.6%, significantly higher than the 2.2% recorded in May and the forecasted 2.3%. The higher-than-expected PPI data in June may lead to higher inflation in the coming months, which could have a negative impact on the Federal Reserve's potential rate-cut decision later this year. On Sunday (24-07-14)China's GDP increased by 0.7% in the second quarter, falling short of the 1.1% forecast. The annual increase was 4.7%, lower than the expected 5.1%. The weaker-than-expected GDP growth in China has raised market concerns about the country's economic health, particularly its government debt level.On Monday (24-07-15)Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that the Fed would not wait until inflation fell to 2% before lowering interest rates. The dovish comment pushed Bitcoin's price above $64,500.On Tuesday (24-07-16)US retail sales remained unchanged in June compared to May, which is stronger than the expected 0.3% decline. Furthermore, core retail sales increased by 0.4% per month during the same period, exceeding the expected 0.1% growth.In June, Canada's annual inflation rate fell more than expected to 2.7%, while the Bank of Canada's closely tracked core inflation measures were 1.9%. The market is pricing in a 93% chance of the second rate cut by the BoC next week.On Wednesday (24-07-17)The eurozone's annualised CPI fell to 2.5% in June from 2.6% in May. Core CPI increased by 2.9% over the same period, the same as in May.On Thursday (24-07-18)The European Central Bank maintained its main interest rate at 3.75%, as the market expected. Christine Lagarde, its chief, stated that the decision on a possible September cut was "wide open," but downplayed concerns about sticky price pressures.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Our desk saw more active flows, with Bitcoin trading back above $63k following the Trump assassination attempt over the weekend. Last week, AI zones experienced the greatest volume change.Worldcoin ($WLD) experienced an increase in demand after a weekend rebound and positive news from the project team and early investors regarding a delayed vesting schedule. It is the primary reason for the 72.7%  volume increase in the AI zone.Following the delisting announcement, the Mdex ($MDX) price skyrocketed with a significant volume increase. It was the primary cause of last week's Monitoring zone volume increase.   Floki ($FLOKI) outperformed the market with an over 20% return last week, and the strong trade demand for this token is the primary reason for the Metaverse zone's 35.7% volume increase.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE), a meme coin with a large community, became Convert's largest volume growth token last week. On June 9, the $PEOPLE price reached a one-year high of $0.144, followed by strong selling pressure. Today, it is trading at $0.061, representing a 57% drop in one month. Notcoin ($NOT), a popular Telegram game and play-to-earn project integrated into the TON blockchain, has become one of the TON ecosystem's most valuable projects. Notcoin, in collaboration with DeFi platform 1inch ($1inch) and on-chain attestation protocol Sign, announced the launch of Triangle, a new accelerator program aimed at assisting developers building on the Telegram messaging platform and The Open Network (TON). $RNDR is the Render Network's utility token, which offers decentralized GPU-based rendering solutions. $RNDR has performed exceptionally well since last September, coinciding with the AI narrative playing out in the equities markets. Its price reached a yearly high of $13.84 in February, and it is now trading at $6.33, representing a 54% drop from that high. 

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement with the 1D chart.The Bitcoin price had a challenging week last week, dropping from $63,800 to $53,485 last Friday before rebounding to $59,470 on Wednesday.Traders attributed the rapid price drop to the sale of 50,000 BTC from the German government. The BTC price dropped with weak demand after an on-chain analysis revealed that the wallet controlled by the German government transferred a large amount of BTC to CEXs. The falling price prompted traders to close their long positions, accelerating the price decline. On Friday, Bitcoin ($BTC) derivatives traders faced over $226 million in liquidation, with the price falling to $53,485, the lowest in four months. It was the second-largest liquidation event in Bitcoin history, surpassing the amount liquidated during the FTX collapse.On-chain data indicates that the BTC sale from the German government is nearing completion, and the BTC price has rebounded more than 7% from its low, trading at $57.6k.However, the sale from Germany is only the beginning. The market is waiting for Mt. Gox to repay its creditors, and this time the estimated amount is 142k BTC. Mt Gox plans to distribute the repayment to creditors beginning in July, and the repayment schedule varies and could last up to 90 days depending on the custodians.From a technical standpoint, after BTC's price broke through the $60k strong support, it became strong resistance. The strong support below is in the $50k/52k range. Our team anticipates that the Bitcoin price will remain in this large range of 50k to 60k for the next few weeks until it finds its direction.

Options Market

The above table is the 25-delta skew for BTC and ETH options.According to the table, near-term BTC options have negative skewness, while long-term options have positive skewness. This means that options traders are bearish on the Bitcoin price in the short term (7-30 days) but remain bullish in the long term, with the largest tilt in 180 days.Ethereum, on the other hand, has a positive skewness toward options of various tenors. Options traders hold similar views on the long-term price of BTC and ETH.Short-term, with the possibility of an ETH ETF listing in the coming weeks, both 7-day and 30-day ETH options have positive skews.
Macro at a glance 
Last Wednesday (24-07-03)ADP nonfarm employment in the US increased by 150k in June, falling short of the estimated 163k and the 157k in May. It indicates a slowdown in demand in the US labour market.US initial jobless claims increased from 234k last week to 238k this week, exceeding the expected 234k figure.FOMC meeting minutes revealed that officials needed more confidence in slowing inflation before cutting rates. Last Friday (24-07-05)US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206k in June, exceeding the estimated 191k increase. May job gains were revised sharply down from 272k to 218k.The US unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in June, exceeding the estimated 4.0% and May's 4.0%.On Tuesday (24-07-09)Fed Chair Powell stated that US inflation is moving in the right direction, but that more progress is needed to gain confidence before cutting rates. He stated that the Fed did not need to wait for 2% inflation to cut rates. The market is pricing in a 72.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting.On Thursday, we will have US CPI data, with an estimated 3.1% annualized growth in CPI and 3.4% in core CPI. 

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Following a 16% drop in Bitcoin price last week, market trading demand has recovered. Last week, the two zones with the highest volume increases were Storage and Launchpool.Both Arweave ($AR) and Filecoin ($FIL) saw a surge in demand following the weekend's rebound. The two tokens are the main causes of the significant volume increase in the Storage zone.Notcoin ($NOT), a play-to-earn token integrated into the TON ecosystem, saw a massive return last week, attracting a large number of traders to trade on our Convert platform. It was the primary driver of last week's Launchpool zone volume increase.   Notcoin ($NOT) is also the primary reason for the gaming zone's 36.6% volume increase.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

The Terra Luna Classic ecosystem tokens have experienced significant price drops as whales and other investors offloaded Terra Luna Classic ($LUNC). Our desk experienced an increase in trading demand for $LUNC as a result of volatility in the LUNC price.As the merger deadline of July 1 approaches, holders of Fetch.ai ($FET), SingularityNET ($AGIX), and Ocean Protocol ($OCEAN) are excited and anticipating the outcome. As the event approaches, the prices of all involved tokens are surging upward. While Bitcoin is trading sideways, the market is refocusing on AI-related projects. With the merger announcement, our desk observed strong demand for all three AI-related tokens, with Fetch.ai experiencing the greatest volume change on Convert.As the market returns its focus to AI projects, WorldCoin ($WLD) has once again become a popular token. Furthermore, Worldcoin announced a partnership with Alchemy to build out infrastructure for its blockchain World Chain, which boosted market sentiment towards this token.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement with the 1D chart.After failing to break above the upper bound of the falling wedge last Wednesday, BTC price fell for further support. We saw a strong selloff come up after it broke below the falling wedge and found support in the $60/61k range.The selloff was fueled by several bearish news:The German government has commenced the sale of a significant Bitcoin stash seized from the operators of a movie piracy website since last Thursday. The nearly 50,000 Bitcoin, originally seized from the operators of Movie2k.to, a film piracy site last active in 2013, were handed over to the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) in January following a voluntary surrender by the suspects.Mt. Gox will start returning assets to customers in July 2024. The exact number of bitcoins being sent to former customers is unknown, but it could range from 65,000 to 140,000. Traders anticipate that most creditors will sell their BTC soon after they receive it, causing the BTC price to fall further. Bitcoin (BTC) fell back to $60,000 in the US session on Wednesday, after a wallet linked to the US government transferred approximately 3,940 seized BTC to a CEX, raising concerns among traders that the digital assets would be sold.BTC found support in the $60/61k range, but it did not rebound quickly or firmly. Instead, it is bouncing around that range, increasing the possibility that it will retest the support level and fall even further.If the $60/61k support fails, the market could fall further until it reaches $52k, where strong support comes in. If this occurs, the retracement from the high at $73,650 will be more than 25%. A 25% retracement is not uncommon during a bull market. During the 2021 bull market, the Bitcoin price experienced six 25% or greater retracements. Our desk sees an increasing likelihood of this 25% retracement case after market sentiment shifted bearish, and risk management is critical to overcoming a large retracement in a bull market. 

Options Market

The above table is the 25-delta skew for BTC and ETH options.According to the table, BTC options have a negative skew in the near-tenor options but a positive skew in the long-duration options. It means that options traders are bearish on the Bitcoin price in the short term, but bullish on it in the long term, with a stronger bullish view in 180 days.Ethereum, on the other hand, has a positive skew across options with different tenors. Options traders have similar views on the long-term price of BTC and ETH. However, in the near term, with the possibility of an ETH ETF listing in early July, both 7-day and 30-day ETH options have a positive skew. 

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-06-13)In May, the US PPI fell 0.2% month on month, compared to an expected 0.1% increase and a 0.5% increase in April. The lower-than-expected PPI could lead to lower inflation, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September.US initial jobless claims reached a nine-month high of 242k, exceeding the estimated 225k and last week's 229k. The recent increase in initial jobless claims suggests that the tight labour market in the United States is easing.The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.1%, unchanged. According to the statement, the Bank of Japan may reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds after the next monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for the end of July. USD/JPY rose to 158.2 from 157.3 prior to the announcement. On Monday (24-06-17)The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the interest rate at 4.35%, unchanged. Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that high inflation was harming the economy and that lowering inflation was the top priority for the RBA. She stated that the RBA did not consider a rate cut case in this meeting, and the case for an interest hike was not increasing.On Tuesday (24-06-18)In May, the eurozone's CPI increased by 0.2% month over month, down from 0.6% in April. The annualized CPI growth rate in May was 2.6%, up from 2.4% in April. The core CPI growth rate increased by 2.9% on an annual basis, up from 2.7% in April.In May, US retail sales increased by 0.1% month on month, falling short of the expected 0.3% growth but improving on April's 0.1% decrease. Core retail sales fell 0.1% month over month in May, falling short of the expected 0.2% increase.In May, the UK CPI rose by only 0.3% month on month, falling short of the expected 0.4% increase. In May, the annualized CPI growth rate was 2.0%, which was lower than Apirl's figure of 2.3%. Later this week, we haveBank of England interest rate decision on Thursday

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, Lista ($LISTA), the Megadrop program's second project, began trading, and our desk saw a surge in demand for this token across the desk, contributing to the +357.2% volume increase in this zone.This week, with expectations that the ETH ETFs will be approved by the SEC and begin trading on July 4, ETH restaking sections continued to outperform the market, with trading volume in the Liquid Staking zone increasing by 136.8%.Last week, our desk noticed a high demand for Bitcoin ($BTC) on Convert, which is the primary reason for the 0.3% volume increase in the POW zone.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Convex Finance protocol is based on Curve Finance ($CRV) and complements it by allowing liquidity providers to earn higher rewards. The Convex Finance protocol has its own native token, $CVX. Following the large liquidation of the CRV loan on Aave ($AAVE), the CRV supply in the market increased, and many CRV holders converted their CRV tokens into veCRV and earned higher yields on the Convex protocol. $CVX experienced an over 100% surge last Sunday, indicating strong market demand for this token.The recent launchpool project io.net ($IO) is a leading cryptocurrency project that focuses on the DePin aspect. In the backdrop of AI and GPU hype, io.net provides users with onchain access to global GPUs. It is not surprising that $IO is in high demand after GPU producer Nvidia surpassed Apple and Microsoft to become the highest market capitalization company.After the SEC confirmed that it had concluded its investigation into Ethereum 2.0 following the approval of the 19b-4 forms of ETH ETF applications, investors piled into Ripple ($XRP), hoping for an XRP ETF in the future. The strong market demand for $XRP pushed its price up 1.2% last week, while the majority of top-ranked cryptocurrencies saw a negative return.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement with the 8H chart.Despite the strength of the US equity market, the price of Bitcoin fell further. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both reached new all-time highs in recent days, with Nvidia surpassing Apple and Microsoft to become the US stock exchange's largest market capitalization stock. The market sentiment for risk assets is fairly bullish in the traditional finance world, but our desk sees a completely different story in the crypto market.After BTC fell below the upward trendline (the red line) mentioned in previous posts, bearish sentiment spread throughout the cryptocurrency market. Altcoins experienced a significant capital outflow. While BTC fell more than 3% in the last seven days, many altcoins, across various chains and categories, experienced a 20%-30% decline. The crypto market saw a boost in ETH and restaking projects after the SEC confirmed that they had closed the investigation on ETH 2.0 after passing the 19b-4 form of ETH ETF applications. However, the BTC price did not show a significant recovery. BTC is currently forming a falling wedge in the 8-hour chart. If it can break above the falling wedge (the blue lines) with large volumes, it may indicate that BTC is ready to recover the loss and have another test to the $73k resistance. If the breakout fails, we could see another two weeks of consolidation here, with BTC finding strong support at $61k (the red area).

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-06-13)In May, the US PPI fell 0.2% month on month, compared to an expected 0.1% increase and a 0.5% increase in April. The lower-than-expected PPI could lead to lower inflation, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September.US initial jobless claims reached a nine-month high of 242k, exceeding the estimated 225k and last week's 229k. The recent increase in initial jobless claims suggests that the tight labour market in the United States is easing.The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.1%, unchanged. According to the statement, the Bank of Japan may reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds after the next monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for the end of July. USD/JPY rose to 158.2 from 157.3 prior to the announcement. On Monday (24-06-17)The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the interest rate at 4.35%, unchanged. Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that high inflation was harming the economy and that lowering inflation was the top priority for the RBA. She stated that the RBA did not consider a rate cut case in this meeting, and the case for an interest hike was not increasing.On Tuesday (24-06-18)In May, the eurozone's CPI increased by 0.2% month over month, down from 0.6% in April. The annualized CPI growth rate in May was 2.6%, up from 2.4% in April. The core CPI growth rate increased by 2.9% on an annual basis, up from 2.7% in April.In May, US retail sales increased by 0.1% month on month, falling short of the expected 0.3% growth but improving on April's 0.1% decrease. Core retail sales fell 0.1% month over month in May, falling short of the expected 0.2% increase.In May, the UK CPI rose by only 0.3% month on month, falling short of the expected 0.4% increase. In May, the annualized CPI growth rate was 2.0%, which was lower than Apirl's figure of 2.3%. Later this week, we haveBank of England interest rate decision on Thursday

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, with optimism that the S1 form of ETH ETFs will be approved at the beginning of July, ETH restaking sections outperformed the market, and trading volume in the Liquid Staking zone increased by 51.1%.Last week, our desk noticed a surge in demand for Arweave ($AR), resulting in the largest trading volume increase among all tokens in the Storage zone.Last week, trading volume in the DeFi zone fell by 19.9% on Convert. While many tokens in this zone saw a volume drop, Convex Finance ($CVX) outperformed the market, with a significant volume increase as demand surged.As the Euro Cup continues, our desk has seen a surge in demand for fan tokens. The demand for Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG) has the highest volume increase in the Fan Token zone. 

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

The token price of Highstreet ($HIGH ) has dropped significantly in the past week. $HIGH experienced a strong bull run after March 20. $HIGH 's price rose from $1.7 to a high of $9.8 in less than three months before falling 70% to $2.8 in just five days. Highstreet developers investigated the recent sharp drop and concluded that it was caused by a malicious attack that resulted in the sale of 20 million tokens.The Filecoin Network ($FIL ), which was launched in 2017, aims to incentivize a global network of computer operators to provide file-sharing and storage services. The recent discussions about DePIN innovation drew the market's attention to this project, as information storage is a critical component in DePIN innovation. The high demand for $FIL resulted in an 11% increase in 5 hours last Friday. However, the gain was quickly reversed following a sell-off. The Injective ($INJ ) price has risen by more than 22% in the last 24 hours, because of lower-than-expected US CPI inflation and the burning of more than 6 million INJ tokens through the burn auction. The price's strong performance drew a lot of interest, and our desk saw the trading volume of $INJ double on Convert last week.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last four months.The price of Bitcoin fell sharply last Friday in response to the unexpectedly strong nonfarm payroll change in the United States. The strong nonfarm payrolls suggest that the Federal Reserve has no reason to cut interest rates in such a strong labour market. The higher-than-expected average hourly earnings growth puts more pressure on the production side, implying sticky inflation due to higher labour costs.BTC found support at $69,000, the previous cycle high. Over the weekend, liquidity decreased, and Bitcoin recovered to $70k. This week, we have CPI data and the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. On Tuesday, our desk saw some risk offloading, which caused a sell-off on altcoins. BTC fell below the $69k support level and sold off to $66k before demand came in. Such risk-averse behaviour could be a hedging strategy to avoid a possible high CPI reading and a hawkish Fed on Wednesday.The US CPI reading came in lower than expected, causing the US dollar to fall and risk assets to rise. BTC soared more than 2% following the news, trading above the $69k support level in the US early session. However, it lost all of its gains following the FOMC press conference, as Fed Chair Powell did not provide any specific information on a potential rate cut and emphasised that the Federal Reserve was in a good position to wait for more clarity on a disinflation trend rather than making decisions based on a single piece of good data.Without another catalyst in the near term, our desk believes the Bitcoin price will remain below $71k to $73k (the green bar on the chart). In the longer term, we believe Bitcoin's upward trend will continue, with the price breaking above the green bar and reaching $85k before the US presidential election.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-06-06)The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the first time in five years, setting the rate at 3.75%. According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, this rate cut will most likely mark the beginning of rate-cutting progress. She did, however, emphasise that future rate cuts will be contingent on inflationary pressures. The announcement boosted the European stock market. US initial jobless claims increased to 229k from 221k last week, exceeding the estimated 220k. The rise in initial jobless claims suggests that the tightening situation in the US labour market is improving.Last Friday (24-06-07)US nonfarm payrolls increased by 272k in May, far exceeding the expected 182k and April's 165k. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month on month. The growth rate exceeded the estimated 0.3% and April's 0.2%. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll and faster growth in average hourly earnings indicate a strong US labour market, with inflation pressure remaining high as labour costs continue to rise.However, the US unemployment rate increased to 4.0%, up from 3.9% last month. The strong hourly earnings growth boosted the US dollar index (DXY) to 105, while all risk assets experienced some selloff pressure as the market anticipated a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate cut decision later this year.On Wednesday (24-06-12)The US CPI showed  signs of softening in May. The monthly CPI was unchanged, lower than the estimated 0.1% and 0.3% in April. The annualised CPI increase is 3.3%, lower than the estimated 3.4% and April's 3.4%. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, with a monthly change of 0.2% and an annualised change of 3.4%. The US dollar fell sharply from 105.03 to 104.5, while Bitcoin rose from $68,005 to $69,500 following the news.The Federal Reserve announced that the interest rate will remain at 5.50%, unchanged. The dot plot indicates that FOMC members expect only one rate cut this year, not three as shown in March. Chair Powell emphasised that the Federal Reserve needs more data to show a downward trend in inflation before lowering rates. The Fed would wait a few months to see if the trend of cooling inflation continues before considering a looser policy.The US dollar recovered its losses following the cooling CPI news, while Bitcoin lost all of its gains and traded below $68,000 before the US market closed.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, the broader market experienced a selloff, with Bitcoin failing to break through the $72k mark. Our Convert found that the Storage zone had the greatest volume increase.Last week, our desk noticed a high demand for Filecoin ($FIL ), which became the primary driver of the volume change in the Storage zone.Last week, trading volume in the Launchpad zone increased by 9.7% on Convert. Injective ($INJ ) and Fetch.ai ($FET) are the two tokens driving volume growth in this zone.During the same period, the volume in the Layer 1/ Layer 2 zone decreased by 16.8%. Following the strong demand for ETH the week before, our desk observed a retracement in demand for ETH in the last seven days, which is the primary reason for the volume decline in this zone.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

My Neighbor Alice ($ALICE) gained 72.5% last week, with an 81x volume increase on Convert. The price increase was driven by rising interest from traders. Large-size trades on the order book became more risky due to the volatile price change and a spike in volume. Investors and traders use our Convert and OTC desk for large-size trades to reduce market impact. Trading on Convert not only reduces the trader's intention to other market participants, but it also reduces market risk by securing the price for the entire order in one trade.Linear ($LINA ) is a decentralised delta-one asset protocol that can instantly generate synthetic assets with limitless liquidity. The project enables cryptocurrency users to access traditional assets such as commodities, forex, market indices, and other thematic sectors by facilitating the creation of "Liquids" — Linear's synthetic asset tokens. The recent increase in trading demand on LINA was caused by a volatile price change on the LINA price due to large market purchases.In less than two months, Notcoin, a play-to-earn game and token that is integrated as a Telegram Mini App, has attracted over 30 million Telegram users, ushering in a new wave of mainstream cryptocurrency adoption. The large user base and recent hype surrounding GameFi fueled $NOT 's price increase. The price of $NOT increased 400% in less than 8 days before falling 20% after some profit-taking. 

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last three months.After falling to $58k due to rising geopolitical tensions, the Bitcoin price recovered and found support in the red area around the $60/61k range. It is currently on an upward trend (the red trend line) and has encountered strong resistance (the green zone). The first attempt to test the resistance zone in May was led by a 20% increase in Ethereum, which was fueled by the potential approval of ETH spot ETFs. After the SEC approved the 19b-4 applications for ETH ETFs, we saw a "sell the news" reaction in the ETH price, and the BTC price fell in tandem.In early June, BTC attempted another test of the resistance zone, this time with BNB as the primary driver. BNB's price increased by 20% in two days, from $596 to $716, setting a new all-time high. As BNB reached a new all-time high, our team noticed that investors and traders were converting their BNB holdings to BTC for profit.Furthermore, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen consistent inflows over the last few weeks. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States experienced their second-best-ever joint net inflow day on June 4, totalling $886.6 million. On the macro level, recent data on the US labour market indicate that the imbalance is continuing to ease. The PCE price index, released last Friday, showed that prices remained stable in April, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year.With strong inflows from the traditional finance via ETFs, bullish market rotations within the large market cap coins ($ETH and $BNB), and a less tightening liquidity backdrop, our desk anticipates that the 3-month consolidation of the BTC price will come to an end. Once the BTC price clears the resistance level between $71k and $74k, we expect it to be volatile and quickly reach the $85k level.
Options Market

The above chart shows the at-the-money implied volatility of BTC options with different tenors in the last two weeks.After the SEC approved 19b-4 applications for ETH spot ETFs two weeks ago, the IVs of BTC options reversed. The front-end IV was trading in the sub-40 range, which we had seen in November/December 2023 and late January/early February 2024.The BTC price has gradually increased over the last two periods, followed by a rally. Historically, front-end BTC IVs have remained in a higher range (50% - 60%) during bull markets. When the front-end IV remains below 50% for an extended period of time, the BTC price is likely to become volatile.That being said, if the IVs of the front-end BTC options remain in the current range or even fall lower, we should expect something big to happen soon and prepare for the upcoming volatile move.

Macro at a glance 
Last Wednesday (24-05-29)The German CPI growth rate was 0.1% in May, lower than the estimated 0.2% and 0.5% in April. The annualized CPI growth rate was 2.4%, up from 2.2% in April.Last Thursday (24-05-30)The US GDP growth rate was 1.3% in the first quarter, lower than the estimated 1.6% and 3.4% growth rates in Q4 2023. The lower-than-expected GDP growth rate indicates a cooling US economy and increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year.US initial jobless claims were 219k, slightly higher than the estimated 218k. The increase in jobless claims suggests that the imbalance in the US labor market is easing.Last Friday (24-05-31)The Eurozone CPI growth rate was 0.2% in May, down from 0.6% in April. The annualised growth rate of the CPI is 2.6%, which is higher than the expected 2.5%. The market anticipates that the slight increase in CPI in May will not change the ECB's view on its first rate cut at the upcoming June meeting.The US PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in April, with an annualised rate of 2.7%. Both numbers are consistent with market expectations. However, the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased only 0.2% month on month, compared to the expected 0.3%.On Tuesday (24-06-04)US job openings fell from 8.355 million in March to 8.059 million in April, a surprising decrease from the expected 8.370 million figure, indicating that US labour market imbalances continue to ease.On Wednesday (24-06-05)In May, US ADP nonfarm employment increased by 152k, falling short of the estimated 173k and April's 188k, also signalling that the US labour market imbalance is easing.The Bank of Canada announced its first rate cut after 2020 at its June meeting. The Bank of Canada cut its interest rate from 5.00% to 4.75%, making it the first central bank in G7 countries to reduce interest rates. The US equity market closed with gains, with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index both reaching all-time highs. Nvidia is the primary driver of this rally, as it reached $1,200 and its market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our Convert trading volume increased significantly, with the Gaming zone experiencing the greatest percentage increase.Last week, My Neighbor Alice ($ALICE) and Notcoin ($NOT ) performed extremely well, with surging volumes. These two tokens accounted for a significant portion of the volume increase in the Gaming zone.Last week, the Launchpool zone saw a 134.0% increase in trading volume on Convert. Notcoin ($NOT ) is the main driver of volume growth in this zone.During the same period, the volume in the Monitoring zone increased by 102.4%. JasmyCoin ($JASMY) and Linear ($LINA ) are the two main drivers of the high trade demand.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 
Email: trading@binance.com for more information.
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Audius crypto, a Web 3 equivalent to music streaming platforms like SoundCloud and Spotify, saw its native token, $AUDIO , soar 27.4% last week with a 21x volume increase on Convert. Audius was named one of the top 14 music tech startups to watch by Business Insider, which boosted the token's value and drove up demand.BounceBit ($BB ), the first project launched in the Megadrop zone, had a tremendous gain of 92.4% last week, with the trading volume jumping 381.0% on Convert. BounceBit is a leading project in the CeDeFi infrastructure space, providing institutional-grade yield products, restaking use cases, and CeDeFi as a service to make high-yield opportunities available to all. The strong performance came after the project team announced a roadmap to democratise high-yield Bitcoin investing by combining centralised and decentralised finance.Last Thursday afternoon, the SEC approved the 19b-4 form for Ethereum spot ETFs, clearing the way for ETH spot ETF approval. Uniswap ($UNI) saw a surge in trading volume on its decentralised platform, which accounts for 48.9% of total DEX volume. Moreover, the Uniswap V4 introduction by the project team fueled the demand for this governance token.Meme coins continue to play an important role in the market, with ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE) and Pepe ($PEPE) outperforming and gaining market attention. Last week, $PEPE experienced double-digit trading volume growth on Convert, while $PEOPLE saw triple-digit trading volume growth.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the ETH price movement in the last three months.Last Thursday, the US SEC finally approved the 19b-4 forms for Ethereum spot ETF applicants, paving the way for the final approval of ETH spot ETFs. ETF issuers must wait for the SEC to approve the S1 forms before listing their ETFs on the stock market for investors to purchase. Typically, it takes another one to two weeks.On Thursday, before the SEC website published the approval of 19b-4 forms, ETH price fluctuated, first rising to $3,950 before the US market opened, then rapidly falling below $3,500 at the US market close due to the lack of clarity of the SEC decision. The high volatility (over 10% change from top to bottom) was priced correctly in the options market, with near-tenor ETH options trading at more than 110% implied volatility. The implied volatility rapidly dropped to the normal range after the announcement was made.Following the SEC announcement, we saw some ETH sales during the Asia hours, and demand increased after the price reached the green bar shown in the chart. Demand came in consistently, pushing the price into the red bar, which represents a strong resistance area at the $4,000 level. We expect the resistance level to be broken with the announcement that the S1 forms have been approved by the SEC, and we could see another 10% room to run before the ETFs are available in the stock market.
Options Market

The above table shows the 25-delta skew of BTC and ETH options with different tenors.Last week, before the SEC approved the 19b-4 forms on ETH ETF applications, we saw a heavily skewed market behaviour towards puts on ETH near-tenor options, indicating that options traders were purchasing downside protection against the "sell the news" behaviour. This week, the 25-delta skew on ETH options of various tenors is all positive, indicating that options traders are optimistic about ETH's recent price movement, with longer-tenor options showing a stronger bullish sentiment.Meanwhile, sentiment on BTC options is less bullish, with only 0.44 readings for 7-day expiry. However, sentiment indicates more bullishness for longer-term options. According to the table above, the market is strongly bullish on both BTC and ETH over the next two months, with ETH outperforming. This observation supports our previous prediction that the market correction that began in March is coming to an end, and that BTC may reach a new all-time high this summer, paving the way for the start of the altcoin season.

Macro at a glance 
Last Wednesday (24-05-22)The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes revealed that it might take longer than previously thought to confidently achieve a sustainable inflation rate of 2%. Many participants expressed readiness to tighten policies further if the inflation risks developed to warrant such action. With the market wary of possible further delays in Federal interest rate cuts, U.S. equities closed in a slump, with the S&P and Nasdaq indexes down by 0.77% and 0.70%, respectively. Nonetheless, the crypto market performed better, largely due to robust demand for Ethereum before the potential approval by the SEC on ETH ETFs.Last Thursday (24-05-23)US initial jobless claims dropped to 215k last week from 223k the week before, better than the estimated 220k. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI for May was recorded at 50.9, surpassing the projected 50.0. Furthermore, the S&P Global U.S. Services PMI came in at 54.8, significantly exceeding the expected 51.2. This indicates that US business activities are expanding. Manufacturers reported an increase in prices across various inputs, suggesting potential growth in goods inflation in the coming months.Last Friday (24-05-24)The durable goods orders in the U.S. documented a growth rate of 0.7% month-on-month in April, surpassing the projected decrease of 0.9%.On Tuesday (24-05-28)U.S. consumer confidence climbed to 102.0 in May, marking a significant rebound from April's 97.5, and beating the expected 96.0. This robust consumer confidence implies potential increases in demand for goods and services, which could result in more persistent inflation.Later this week, we haveUS GDP in the first quarter of 2024The Eurozone's CPI reading for May, which could provide additional insight into the ECB's potential rate cut in June.The US PCE index in April, which will provide further insights into US inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our trading volume on Convert increased significantly, with the Megadrop zone showing the greatest percentage increase.Last week, BounceBit ($BB ), the first project launched in the Megadrop zone, had a strong performance and attracted a lot of demand to trade this token. The trading volume surged 381.0% compared to its first-week trading volume.The Fan Token zone saw a 72.0% increase in trading volume on Convert last week. Santos FC Fan Token ($SANTOs) is the primary driver of volume growth in this zone.During the same time period, volume in the NFT zone increased by 36.3%. Audius ($AUDIO ) and Origin Protocol ($OGN) are the two main contributors to the high trade demand.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Last week, our Convert Portal experienced a surge in trading demand for the meme coin ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE ). ConstitutionDAO was a crowdfunding campaign to purchase a first-edition copy of the United States Constitution. The $PEOPLE token represents a share of the ConstitutionDAO. Since the bid for the document failed, the PEOPLE token now represents a DAO movement of historical significance. In the most recent development, the Fantom Foundation has revealed more information about its new Layer-1 blockchain Sonic Network, which connects to Ethereum via Layer-2 bridge. This will enable Sonic to access a large number of users, liquidity, and other protocols. The Foundation will introduce $S tokens on Sonic network to match the supply of $FTM . Users will be able to exchange their $FTM tokens for $S tokens on a 1:1 basis. By connecting to Ethereum, the Sonic network ecosystem will gain the full benefits of a layer-1 blockchain while also providing native access to ETH.GALA Games, a play-to-earn blockchain platform, was hacked on Monday, and the hacker minted 5 billion GALA tokens to a private address. The hacker exchanged 600 million GALA for 5.913 ETH afterward. The $GALA price dropped over 22% in two hours due to a large dump on Uniswap. The price stabilised after the platform noticed the system compromise and froze the remaining 4.4 billion tokens in the hacker's wallet.PENDLE, a leading restaking project, saw significant trading demand in response to rumours of potential ETH ETF approval. $PENDLE, which has a high beta profile compared to ETH, was heavily bid on the market after ETH took off on Monday. Last week, the $PENDLE price rose by 60.7%, with the majority of the increase occurring on Monday.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last three months.As we mentioned to our readers last week, our desk saw bullish sentiment on BTC following the cooler CPI data in the United States. Furthermore, the risk reversal on the options market indicates that the market's sentiment has shifted from bearish to neutral.Last Thursday, the United States Senate joined the House of Representatives in repealing the controversial Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cryptocurrency policy known as Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121. SAB 121, issued by the agency in 2022, held that a company that holds a customer's cryptocurrencies must record them on its own balance sheet, which could have significant capital implications for banks that work with crypto clients.Furthermore, we saw a net inflow from US Bitcoin ETFs for six consecutive days beginning last Monday, when Bitcoin traded above the $61k key level. The strong inflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs demonstrated strong demand from investors seeking Bitcoin exposure.On Monday, the US SEC requested amended 19b-4 filings for spot Ethereum ETFs within a short timeframe, signalling an abrupt turn on potential ETH ETF approval. Following the news, Bloomberg analysts estimated a 75% chance of approval by the end of May, up from 25% a week earlier. The ETH price increased by more than 20% due to strong demand on the spot market, pushing the Bitcoin price above $71k, just inches away from the all-time high of $73,777 set in March.Because of the large gains on BTC and ETH in the last two days, our desk expects some consolidation here, as traders take profits. If the BTC price surges above the green zone above with high volume, we may see the next leg up for Bitcoin towards the $100k mark by the end of the year.
Options Market

The above chart shows the 25-delta skew of ETH options with different tenors.On Monday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission asked for amended 19b-4 filings for spot Ethereum ETFs within a short time frame. In response to the news, the ETH price chart showed a vertical k-line, indicating a strong bullish market with increased demand.The 25-delta skew for ETH options increased by more than ten points in response to the heavily bidding ETH spot price. This indicates that options traders were also rushing for ETH calls, either opening long or closing short positions, or both. The SEC's unexpected action on ETH spot ETFs boosted the implied volatility of ETH options. However, the risk reversal on ETH options retraced quickly following the initial move-up because of the increasing odds of a potential approval of ETH ETFs by the SEC. Currently, the risk reversal indicates a very negative skew on ETH options with short tenors, whereas options with longer tenors continue to show positive risk reversals. The negative risk reversal signal on ETH options with short tenors indicates that options traders would rather pay a higher premium for puts to cover the downside risk than buy calls for potential upside gains. The observation supports our forecast for the market to consolidate around the current level in the coming days, with some profit-taking.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-05-16)US initial jobless claims increased from 232k the previous week to 222k last week, exceeding the expected 219k. The US labour market is cooling, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.Last Friday (24-05-17)In April, Eurozone CPI growth was 2.4% year on year, aligning with the rate seen in March. The monthly CPI growth rate decreased from 0.8% in March to 0.6% in April. The annualised core CPI growth rate decreased from 2.9% in March to 2.7% in April. The Eurozone's inflation rate is around the European Central Bank's target rate of 2% and trending lower, indicating a high likelihood of the ECB's first rate cut in June.On Tuesday (24-05-21)According to Statics Canada's CPI data, prices rose 0.5% monthly and 2.7% annually, as expected by economists. The cooler CPI data comes after March's 0.6% MoM and 2.9% YoY readings. The lower inflation rate makes it more likely that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates for the first time this cycle in June.Later this week, we haveThe April CPI readings in the UK this WednesdayThe FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released this Wednesday

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our trading volume on Convert increased significantly, with the Monitoring zone showing the greatest percentage increase.Last week, the two tokens with the highest trading demand were Unifi Protocol DAO ($UNFI) and Cream ($CREAM), which contributed significantly to the Monitoring zone's volume increase of 66.0%.The Metaverse zone saw a 35.6% increase in trading volume on Convert last week. FLOKI ($FLOKI) is the primary driver of volume growth in this zone.During the same time period, volume in the gaming zone increased by 30.9%. Following the hack news, our desk observed a surge in trading demand for GALA ($GALA ).

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

This week, the top 5 tokens of interest are all from the DeFi zone, with UMA and TRB focusing on Oracle space and RUNE and FRONT focusing on DeFi infrastructure space.The price of Tellor Tributes ($TRB ) soared over $100 the week before, from $43 to $145 in six days, while the upward momentum has faded away and it is trading above the $110 level. After the huge pump on Tellor Tributes, our desk observed the strong capital inflow into another Oracle project UMA ($UMA ). UMA saw a significant volume uptick last week, and the price soared over 50% from $3.10 to the highest $4.63 before giving up part of the gain and now trading at $3.67.BENQI ($QI) is a decentralised non-custodial liquidity market protocol, built on Avalanche. The protocol enables users to effortlessly lend, borrow, and earn interest with their digital assets. Last week, the market saw strong demand for BENQI in the US session, but the price retraced back in Asia hours.ThorChain ($RUNE ) is a decentralised liquidity network with an interoperable blockchain that allows cross-chain token swaps in a non-custodial manner. Our desk saw strong demand for cross-chain projects in the last few weeks.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement from the beginning of March.As previously discussed, the 350-Day Moving Average serves as a strong support level, as does the $60k/61k range. After the price rebounded to $65k from its recent low of $56.4k, our desk noticed that strong demand in the $60k/61k range had returned. With a positive inflow from US BTC spot ETFs last week, BTC price consolidated above the $61k level and traded within the descending triangle formed by the downward trendline and the $61k support level. On Wednesday, US CPI readings were in line with market expectations, easing market concerns that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates this year. The market went into full risk-on mode, and the broader crypto market rose during the US session. Bitcoin soared 7.5% on the bullish sentiment, trading above $66,000 before the Asia market open. The breakout of the downward channel, as shown in the chart above, suggests that Bitcoin's bullish momentum has returned. As long as the Bitcoin price remains above the downward channel, it may lead to the next leg up in the coming months.The macroeconomic outlook also supports the bullish trend. As discussed in our Macro at a Glance section, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have paved the way for rate cuts this year, which could occur as early as next month. In addition, beginning June 1, the Federal Reserve will reduce its quantitative tightening program on Treasury runoff from $60 billion to $25 billion per month. The improved liquidity on the global market would fuel the Bitcoin bullish trend and drive the BTC price to a new all-time high.

Options Market

The above chart shows the 25-delta skew of BTC options with different tenors.After the US CPI data was released on Wednesday, our desk noticed an upward trend in the 25-delta skew of BTC options of various tenors. The aggressive move of short-term options bypassing the zero level suggests that market sentiment has shifted from bearish (25-delta skew below -5) to neutral (25-delta skew above 0). The 25-delta skew for long-term options (180-day expiry) increased and is now greater than 5. It suggests that institutional investors remain bullish on the BTC price in the long run, as the 25-delta call premium is significantly higher than the 25-delta put premium. If the skew of BTC options remains above the 0 line across all tenors in the coming week, it will indicate that the bearish trend has ended and that the BTC price may soon begin to rise again.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-05-09)The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 5.25%, unchanged. Headline inflation in the UK has since fallen, and the Bank of England expects it to slow to around its 2% target in April, owing primarily to falling energy prices. Governor Andrew Bailey stated that there may be more reductions than investors anticipate. US initial jobless claims increased from 209k the week before to 231k last week, the highest level in eight months, signalling a cooling US labour market and fuelling expectations for rate cuts later this year.On Monday (24-05-13)In April, the CPI in Germany increased by 0.5% month on month, an uptick from the 0.4% growth seen in March, while annualised CPI growth rate remained at 2.2% from March. The CPI data in Germany indicated that the Eurozone is far better positioned than the US to control inflation, and the cooling inflation data supports the European Central Bank's anticipated rate cut decision, which could come as early as next month.On Tuesday (24-05-14)The US PPI is expected to grow by 0.5% month on month in April, higher than the estimated 0.3% and -0.1% (revised) in March. Core PPI is also expected to grow at a 0.5% rate, up from an estimated 0.2% and -0.1% (revisioned) in March. The hot PPI numbers were primarily due to a lower revision of March data. Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that he expects inflation to continue to fall but is less confident in the disinflation outlook than he had previously been. The market did not interpret his comment as a potential rate hike, with US 10-year Treasury note yields falling to 4.451% afterward.On Wednesday (24-05-15)April's US CPI data met expectations. The annualised CPI growth rate was 3.4%, down from 3.5% in March, while the core CPI growth rate was 3.6%, a decrease from 3.8% in March. The market sees signs of encouragement by the ease of March's unexpected inflation rebound, with all three US equity indices closing near all-time highs. Bitcoin rose more than 7% in the US session, trading above the $66,000 level. The US dollar index closed lower at 104.283. 

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, Convert's trading volume saw a large increase in the Fan Token zone and Liquid Staking zone.The two tokens with the highest trading demand last week were AS Roma Fan Token ($ASR) and Manchester City Fan Token ($CITY), which contributed significantly to the Fan Token zone's 102.5% volume increase.The Liquid Staking zone experienced a 31.2% increase in trading volume on Convert last week. Benqi ($QI) is the primary contributor to the volume growth.During the same period, volume in the Infrastructure zone dropped by 7.8%. The decrease is largely due to faded trading demand for Wormhole ($W).

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!