In this bearish market sentiment on June 25, 2024, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan published a report that the approval of spot Ethereum ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) may attract a massive inflow of $15 billion of net inflows in its first 18th month. However, the ETF experts are speculating that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve Ethereum ETF by July 2, 2024. 

Potential inflow in spot Ethereum ETF

One method to estimate these inflows is by examining the market caps of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). Currently, Bitcoin holds 74% of the combined market value of both cryptocurrencies. Investors are likely to allocate funds to Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in similar proportions. Since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, U.S. investors have poured $56 billion into these funds. This figure is projected to surpass $100 billion by the end of 2025 as major investment firms adopt these products.

Hougan in his report added, “ Using this $100 billion figure as a reference, spot Ethereum ETPs would need to attract $35 billion in assets to reach parity, a process I expect will take about 18 months.”

In Canada, Ether ETFs account for about 22%-23% of the total AUM, slightly less than their market cap weight. This difference is attributed to Bitcoin’s first-mover advantage. Some investors might feel their crypto exposure is sufficient after buying a Bitcoin ETF. This trend might also be observed in the U.S., potentially limiting the market share of Ether ETFs to 22%. If this pattern holds, net new inflows to Ether ETFs could be around $18 billion. 

Ethereum price-performance analysis 

Despite all these speculations regarding the world’s second-biggest cryptocurrency, currently, ETH is moving near $3,380, and in the last 24 hours, it experienced a decent 0.45% upside momentum. If we look at the performance of ETH over a longer period, in the last 7 days its price is still down by 5%. Whereas, in the last 30 days ETH has experienced a 14% price drop.

However, the 24-hour trading volume has dropped by 35%, signaling lower investors’ and traders’ participation in Ethereum. 

According to expert technical analysis, Ethereum is looking bearish as it consolidates in a tight range between $3,435 and $3,340 levels and also moves below 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average). If Ethereum price on a daily time frame gives a strong candle closing above the $3,470 level then in the coming days we may see bullish till $3,600.