Bettors put slim chances on Changpeng Zhao avoiding jail time.
Odds of Binance’s co-founder and former CEO spending time in prison are 75%. The convicted executive is just hours away from being sentenced by a Seattle court for breaking US securities laws.
That’s according to a bet placed on forecasting startup Manifold where punters have placed bets that Zhao will spend time in prison.
As one of the leading figures in the crypto industry, Zhao’s future is of key interest to industry watchers as US market watchdogs ramp up their crypto crackdown.
His sentencing comes after Binance to plead guilty to US Department of Justice charges including facilitating money laundering. The company was ordered to pay $4.3 billion in penalties in November.
At the same time, Zhao pleaded guilty to breaking securities laws, and stepped down as CEO.
However, bettors on blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket suggest that he won’t spend too long behind bars.
The majority, some 49%, expect him to serve less than six months in jail. The longer the potential sentence, the shorter the odds.
The odds of him serving six to 11 months are 16%. The odds of 12 to 17 months: 15%.
For 18 to 23 months, odds shrink to 14%.
Only 3% see Zhao spending 24 to 29 months behind bars, while 2% see 30 to 35 months.
The odds of Zhao facing three years or more behind bars are 7%
Prediction markets
Neither Polymarket nor Manifold refer to themselves as betting sites, but as prediction markets where users can “profit from the things you know best,” as Polymarket puts it.
These online markets allow users to wager on any topic, with the hope that it could also produce meaningful insights on current events. They both allow users to gamble on their beliefs
In the past bettors on these sites have been able bet on everything from whether or not FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried would be found guilty — which the bettors got right; who will win the US presidential election; the price of Bitcoin; and whether regulators will approve spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds.
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Reach out on eric@dlnews.com.