$6B worth of options are set to expire tomorrow. Its the last friday of the month. Expect some volatility. We might get a small pump to 68k right after.
GBTC outflows have outpaced inflows lately due to IBIT turning into an outflow yesterday too which explains the selling. People say its cause middle east of whatever. Its not. The fed chairman has pretty much said inflation is out of control and theres nothing we can do about it and we'll be lucky to get 1 cut by december. So thats hawkish. Also the US has sent over $60B in aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan and thats the real risk of war at the moment. Also the biden administration proposed a bill of taxing 45% on capital gains from crypto including unrealized profits, but i can tell you for a fact it will NOT be signed, so no need to worry.
So you want to know who the real sellers are in this case? Its the average joe schmuck who doesnt know shit about crypto and bought some of it in ETF shares cause of the hype. But now that things are heating up economically and geopolitically, they always go back to what they know best: Gold.
This current consolidation period will see us go in a wave between 60k and 70k a couple more times over may. Its manipulation to shake off paperhands, but thats a good thing for real investors and traders like us who understand the value of $BTC and believe in its long-term performance. In may go away. After may, expect a new ATH and i stand behind my words even if i end up being wrong.
1 thing for sure is that the lowest drop we get at all from now on is only going to be towards 50k and it will be much shorter than the previous bear market at 15k-20k. The real bull rally will happen in June.
For the short-term, on the daily $BTC is in a reversal from the last 2 days downtrend, so waiting to see if it bounces back to 66k over the weekend and we might be able to break towards the 68k pivot this monday. Otherwise a fail will take us down to the 60k support.