The boss of America’s largest crypto mining firm, Marathon, said that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals had brought forward what would otherwise have been the post-halving rally.
“I think the ETF approval, which has been a huge success, has attracted capital into the market and essentially brought forward what could have been the price appreciation we typically would have seen three to six months post halving,” Fred Thiel said in an interview with Bloomberg on April 9.
“So I think we are seeing part of that now already and that has put forward some of the demand. ”
No Post-Halving Rally?
Thiel explained that the halving event would reduce the supply of Bitcoin by about 450 a day, “which would have some small impact on prices probably.”
He added that as a mining firm, they are pleased about the pre-halving rally, which has bucked the trend seen in previous market cycles.
“But as miners we are very excited to go into a halving, where for once prices have not declined prior to the halving rather prices have gone up so everybody is obviously maximizing to that.”
Thiel estimated that the firm’s break-even rate would be about $46,000 per BTC to remain profitable after the halving.
Bitcoin mining expert Jaran Mellerud predicted that the hash rate would not fall much after the halving.
“Halvings should not be viewed as events that lower the hashrate, but rather as brief pauses in the hashrate’s relentless upward trajectory.”
The #Bitcoin hashrate will likely not drop as much following the halving. Only by 5-10%, as per @penny_ether‘s predictions.
Also, historically, it took 57 days on average for the hashrate to return to pre-halving levels, so it will likely quickly re-bounce. pic.twitter.com/Jgx6jfj6L5
— Jaran Mellerud (@JMellerud) April 9, 2024
He added that there will still be a bull market in the wake of this halving, “however, the growing demand, and not the meager supply decline, will be the main factor fueling the price surge.”
However, Bitfinex predicted that the post-halving bull market would propel Bitcoin prices to $150,000.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Bitcoin prices have increased 65% so far this year in the four months leading up to the halving, which is due around April 20, or in just ten days.
However, since early March, BTC prices have been rangebound in the upper $60K bracket, failing to break out yet not seeing a major correction either.
Investor and analyst Oliver Isaacs pointed out that BTC on exchanges was at a six-year low, and several other countries are preparing to permit Bitcoin ETPs.
The Bitcoin halving is just 10 days away!
If you’re still bearish on Bitcoin, know this:… pic.twitter.com/Zc160Y8SKT
— Oliver Isaacs (@oliverzok) April 10, 2024
Nevertheless, the asset was trading at $69,200 at the time of writing, following a 3% decline on the day, keeping it within its sideways channel.
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