The fourth Bitcoin halving will take place on April 19, 2024, at approximately 16:30 Turkey time (UTC+3). According to Hashrate Index, this event could have significant impacts on Bitcoin's hashrate depending on BTC price performance.
Hashrate Index estimates that approximately 3-7% of Bitcoin hashrate could be out of action after the halving if Bitcoin's current price maintains or increases moderately. The year-end hashrate value for Bitcoin is expected to be between 639-674 EH/s.
However, if the price of Bitcoin falls from its current level to around $48,000, it is estimated that around 16% of Bitcoin hashrate could go offline.
The report indicates that there may be an anomaly in the upcoming halving compared to previous ones. The current Bitcoin bull market and transaction fee activity have provided many miners with the opportunity to remain viable after the block reward dropped to 3,125 BTC.
According to analysts, if Bitcoin's price stays here or increases, a small amount of hashrate could go offline. If the current trend continues, hashrate is expected to grow slowly over the next year. Compressed margins, exacerbated by the slow but steady increase in mining difficulty, will limit how much of the hashrate can come online and remain profitable.
While the halving will not disrupt miners to the extent previously imagined, margins will still be very thin after the event.
In summary, the BTC price must experience significant increases in order for existing miners to continue their operations profitably. Because when we look at the BTC production cost, it is known that this price will increase significantly.
In past years, halving has been the main factor that started the bull market in Bitcoin. BTC, which has already experienced a significant rise since the beginning of the year with this effect and ETF approval, is expected to enter a serious bull market by mid-2025.
