At last Bitcoin ETF has started, very quickly a new demand has formed and the market has rapidly gone up. At the time, the price rose above $52K, and the inflow of money into Bitcoin-ETF funds exceeded the inflow into traditional "gold" funds. This behavior is quite predictable. First there was a workshop to warm up the public of the future of the ETF, then there was a small show from the ETF approval process, then there was a pause due to the need for technical preparation of the foundation, and finally, we can see the full-fledged work begins!
Bitcoin ETF grew as an independent asset, without correlation with fiat currencies or any other assets. And this is an achievement in itself.
How will Bitcoin behave? I cannot give an accurate forecast, currently, any force majeure is possible. Traders, for example, give a 20% chance that by April the price of bitcoin will reach 70K.
Initially, Satoshi Nakamoto viewed Bitcoin as a currency and a demonstrator of blockchain capabilities. However, it has now become an investment vehicle that analysts compare to digital gold.
Bitcoin and gold have another feature in common: physical supply constraints. Reserves of gold are limited, deposits will sooner or later be exhausted. It is possible that new deposits will be discovered.
The number of bitcoins is programmatically limited, and it is relatively certain when the last Bitcoin will be minted. For exchange trading the situation is unusual - absolutely exactly know the amount of assets, a significant part is on "dead" accounts, a significant part will go to ETF-funds, and many more bitcoins will settle in the purses of investors focused on long-term investments. That is, the stock market will circulate a relatively small number of coins.
And here interesting alternatives are possible. First, negative: in the absence of sufficient supply, trade will gradually freeze. And two: the price will begin to rise almost limitlessly.
We’ll see soon enough.
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