The U.S. December non-farm payrolls data drops this Friday, with markets expecting 153K new jobs—a slowdown from November. With the Fed’s policy and labor market shifts, how could this data ripple through the crypto market? If it misses expectations, will we see Bitcoin soar or stumble? Share your predictions!

The December non-farm payrolls (NFP) data could significantly impact the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, for the following reasons:

Scenario 1: NFP Misses Expectations (Below 153K)

Market Implications: A weaker labor market signals that the economy is slowing, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to pause or slow its rate hikes.

Crypto Impact:

Bitcoin Bullish Case: Lower rates or the anticipation of monetary easing could weaken the dollar, boosting risk assets like Bitcoin. Investors might seek refuge in crypto as a hedge against potential inflation and economic uncertainty.

Sentiment Shift: If markets perceive a Fed pivot, Bitcoin could rally, possibly breaking key resistance levels.

Scenario 2: NFP Exceeds Expectations (Above 153K)

Market Implications: A strong labor market gives the Fed room to maintain a hawkish stance, keeping rates higher for longer.

Crypto Impact:

Bitcoin Bearish Case: Higher rates could strengthen the dollar, reducing appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin. Investors may rotate into safer assets like bonds.

Short-Term Selloff: Bitcoin might test lower support levels as liquidity tightens.

Key Levels to Watch:

If Bitcoin breaks above $28K-$30K after a weak NFP, it could signal a bullish continuation.

Conversely, a drop below $25K might indicate bearish sentiment returning with strong job data.

Prediction:

If the NFP data significantly misses expectations, I foresee Bitcoin gaining momentum, but the reaction may be muted if broader macroeconomic fears persist. Conversely, a strong jobs report could lead to a short-term dip in Bitcoin prices as markets reassess rate hike probabilities.