Predicting $BTC cycle tops has never been straightforward, and history has shown that no two peaks are the same. With each cycle, Bitcoin seems to rewrite its own rules, leaving us with a fascinating puzzle. Let’s break down what the experts and skeptics are saying about this latest cycle and what might lie ahead.
Bitcoin's Cycle Top Patterns
2017: The market witnessed a classic blow-off top, where Bitcoin skyrocketed rapidly and collapsed just as fast.
2021: A double top pattern emerged, confusing traders and analysts alike.
Now, as we move deeper into the current cycle, the suggestion is that this macro cycle might end early, with December 17, 2024, marking Bitcoin’s top at $108K.
The 3 Peaks and a Domed House Theory
This time, the topping pattern being discussed is the "3 Peaks and a Domed House", a rare but recognizable structure in technical analysis. It’s a pattern that implies a gradual rise, slight corrections, and an eventual dramatic pullback after reaching the peak.
Why December 2024 at $108K Could Be the Top
1. Volatility Is Bitcoin’s DNA
Bitcoin remains an 80-volatility asset, meaning wild price swings are not just possible—they’re a feature. Betting on Bitcoin to adhere to traditional market trends is a fool’s errand.
2. Trump and the $100K Vote
Some speculate that political influences, like Trump’s ambiguous stance on Bitcoin, might have indirectly pushed the market higher. Whether it’s true or not, the narrative is tantalizing: did the push toward $100K come as a thank-you to voters?
3. No Strategic Reserve for Bitcoin
Despite its growing adoption, Bitcoin still lacks institutional backing as a strategic reserve asset. Imagining Congress passing legislation for a Bitcoin reserve remains wishful thinking—for now.
4. MSTR’s DCA Price as a Target
MicroStrategy’s dollar-cost average (DCA) price of $62K has become a psychological benchmark for many traders. If Bitcoin falls below this level, it could signal deeper corrections.
5. Bitcoin ETF Buyers Need a Lesson
The influx of Bitcoin ETF buyers has created a false sense of security for many retail investors. To truly “earn their stripes,” skeptics suggest that a large bear market shakeout is necessary. After all, no Bitcoin cycle is complete until people start calling it a Ponzi scheme again.
What Comes Next?
While $108K might seem like a plausible cycle top, Bitcoin’s unpredictable nature leaves plenty of room for surprises. Whether or not the "3 Peaks and a Domed House" pattern plays out remains to be seen. For now, the question isn’t just about predicting the top—it’s about understanding how Bitcoin continues to reshape the rules of finance.
What’s your take? Could today be the beginning of the next chapter for Bitcoin?
(Chart by NoSecondBest on TradingView)