#ChristmasMarketAnalysis

Crypto markets are in turmoil, with steep declines in major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum since Dec. 18, 2024. The downturn began immediately after the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers issued a cautious statement about monetary policy and Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, provided remarks that spooked markets. Jamie Coutts, the Chief Crypto at Real Vision, explains how tightening liquidity and macroeconomic factors are driving the sell-off.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points on Dec. 18 initially seemed like a dovish move. However, the accompanying statements painted a different picture. Powell emphasized that while inflation has eased significantly, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. He explained that the Fed’s policy rate—now at 4.25%-4.5%—remains “meaningfully restrictive” and that future rate cuts would slow unless there was “further progress on inflation.”

Powell’s comments about the economy’s strength, combined with projections of only two additional cuts in 2025, signaled that the Fed intends to maintain tighter liquidity conditions longer than markets had hoped. This tone sharply contrasted with expectations of a more aggressive easing cycle, catching investors off guard and leading to immediate selling pressure across risk assets, including

a theme he’s been discussing since early December. According to Coutts, liquidity has been contracting for two months, driven by shrinking central bank balance sheets and rising bond market volatility. These conditions are unfavorable for risk assets, which rely heavily on abundant liquidity to sustain demand.

Coutts highlights that cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are particularly sensitive to liquidity changes. Historically, Bitcoin has struggled during periods of tightening financial conditions. The Fed’s cautious messaging amplified existing concerns, leading to accelerated outflows from crypto markets. As Coutts notes, this is a delayed reaction to the liquidity tightening trend.