Today, on December 21, 2024, the cryptocurrency market is expecting a major event — the expiration of options on bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) with a total value of $ 2.62 billion. This event can significantly affect the dynamics of the market, increasing short-term volatility and causing price changes for both cryptocurrencies.
The scale of expiring contracts
Most of the options that expire today are in bitcoin — $2.02 billion. Ethereum accounts for the remaining $598.99 million. In quantitative terms, more than 20,700 BTC contracts are expiring today, which is slightly less than last week, while more than 174,000 contracts are expiring on ETH, which exceeds previous levels.
Maximum break-even price: a benchmark for the market
The key factor that traders take into account in such situations is the so-called "maximum break-even price". This is the level at which most option contracts become worthless, which is often accompanied by significant market movements.
For #bitcoin , this level is set at around $101,000.
For #Ethereum — $3,700.
The current market prices for BTC and ETH are significantly lower than these values, which reduces the likelihood of reaching these levels. However, theoretically, the market can strive for these values during a period of high volatility associated with the expiration of contracts.
Market sentiment: Bullish
Market sentiment remains mostly optimistic, which is confirmed by the put-call coefficients:
For #Bitcoin , this indicator is 0.87,
For Ethereum — 0.48.
Values below 1 signal a predominance of bullish sentiment in the market, meaning that many traders expect prices to rise. However, given the volume of options that expire today, short-term fluctuations remain inevitable.
Market implications
The expiration of such significant volumes of contracts often leads to a sharp increase in volatility. This is because traders adjust their positions to minimize losses or lock in profits.
After the recent decline in the prices of BTC and ETH, market participants remain hopeful of recovery. The expiration of options can be a trigger for stabilization, especially if most of the contracts lose their value.
Forecast for the coming days
In the short term, the market may remain volatile. However, as the options expire, stabilization is possible. Many analysts predict that bitcoin may begin to recover, gradually approaching key price levels.
Long-term perspective
Despite the short-term fluctuations, the long-term prospects for Bitcoin and Ethereum remain positive. Both assets continue to attract investors' attention, given their role in the digital transformation of financial markets.
Conclusion
Today's expiration of $2.6 billion worth of options will be an important test for the cryptocurrency market. Increased volatility can create opportunities for both traders and long-term investors. The question of the future direction of the market will depend on how effectively the participants will be able to adapt to the new market situation.
