According to BlockBeats news, on December 16, Bitfinex released a report stating that since the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has increased by more than 573% and has risen by 130% year to date. The current bull market is driven primarily by institutional demand, such as ETF and spot accumulation.
Historical data suggests that we are in the middle of the cycle, with the market likely to be in 2025 after the April 2024 halving. It typically peaks from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of the year, approximately 450 days after the halving. Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator suggest that we are still in the bull phase but not yet at the peak of over-optimism.
The Pi cycle top and four-year moving average model predicts a potential cycle top price between $145,000 and $189,000. Historically, diminishing returns have moderated the explosive gains Bitcoin has seen in previous cycles. The report’s view is that any correction in 2025 will remain modest, aided by institutional inflows.
The halving year effect typically sees the strongest rallies following halvings. The minimum price estimate for mid-2025 is $145,000, possibly reaching $200,000 under favorable conditions. While volatility is expected in the first quarter of 2025, the overall trend points towards further price gains, supported by ETFs, institutional adoption, and Bitcoin’s growing importance as a global asset.
However, investors should remain alert for signs of overbuying as Bitcoin nears the top of the cycle.
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