It seems like you're sharing insights into your Bitcoin ($BTC) trading strategy, market outlook, and expectations for the current bull cycle.
I sold most of my $BTC at $103K after holding from ~$25K. Here's why I'm now targeting a buyback between $30K-$40K, and my thoughts on what comes next:
1. Why I sold:
I'm trading cycles, not holding indefinitely. The risk/reward (R/R) on $BTC right now is around 15-20%, which doesn't justify risking my 300% gains for marginal upside.
2. Bull run dynamics:
The current cycle shows topping earlier than many expect. The new ATH at $73K was reached before the halving, similar to past cycles. Many retail traders are mistakenly waiting for $150K, just like they did for $100K in the last cycle.
3. Altseason ahead:
While moves sideways or slightly downward, dominance will drop, setting up what could be the largest altseason yet. Key narratives like AI, DePIN, and RWA could lead the charge.
4. Cycle patterns are consistent:
Historically, bull cycles peak 29 months before the halving, followed by bear markets lasting ~12 months with similar retracements (84% in 2018, 77% in 2022). Current trends align with this.
5. Bull run duration:
BTC typically hits ATHs 7-8 months after halvings. Past bull runs lasted 9-11 months, suggesting this cycle's peak will be around September 2025.
6. Take profits strategically:
It's better to miss out on 10-15% additional gains than to lose 90% when the cycle ends.
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Your analysis is grounded in historical data and cyclical trends, emphasizing disciplined profit-taking and strategic altcoin positioning.