The price of $RENDER ($RNDR) surged by over 10% in the past 24 hours, solidifying its position as the largest AI-focused cryptocurrency by market capitalization. It continues to outpace competitors like Fetch.ai (FET) and TAO, boasting a market cap nearing $5 billion. Despite this strong performance, on-chain metrics and technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook, raising questions about the token’s future trajectory.
---
Whale Activity at Historic Lows
While RENDER has gained 56% over the past 30 days, data indicates declining participation from large holders, or “whales.” The number of addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 RENDER has dropped to 151, marking the lowest level since December 2022, according to Santiment.
This reduction suggests a lack of confidence among major investors in the sustainability of the current rally. Whale activity often plays a critical role in driving market trends, with their accumulation typically signaling bullish sentiment. Conversely, the recent decline in whale addresses may signal potential sell-offs, which could cap further price gains.
Without significant whale support, RENDER may face challenges in maintaining its upward momentum, leaving the token vulnerable to increased selling pressure.
---
BBTrend Indicator Turns Negative
The Bollinger Bands Trend (BBTrend) indicator for RENDER has turned negative, currently sitting at -4.13, the lowest level since late November. This marks a shift from a bullish phase earlier in December, where BBTrend peaked at 17.6 on December 8.
BBTrend measures the strength and direction of price trends using Bollinger Bands. A positive value indicates bullish momentum, while a negative value suggests bearish sentiment.
The negative reading reflects weakening momentum for RENDER, increasing the likelihood of a price consolidation or a further downturn in the short term.
---
Price Outlook: $10 or $8 Next?
Technical analysis of RENDER’s Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) presents a mixed scenario. While a short-term EMA recently crossed below a longer-term EMA, signaling bearish momentum, it has since begun to rise again. If a bullish crossover occurs, it could spark renewed buying interest, pushing RENDER’s price higher.
Bullish Scenario: A bullish crossover could propel RENDER to test resistance at $10.8, and a break above this level may lead to further gains, with potential targets at $11.9. This rally would bring its market cap closer to $6.2 billion.
Bearish Scenario: If bearish sentiment prevails, RENDER may test support at $9.2. A failure to hold this level could result in further declines, with potential price targets at $8.2 or even $7.1.
---
Conclusion
RENDER’s recent 10% surge underscores its dominance in the AI cryptocurrency sector, but conflicting signals from on-chain data and technical indicators suggest a pivotal moment for the token. While whale activity and BBTrend highlight potential bearish risks, the possibility of a bullish EMA crossover keeps the outlook uncertain.
Investors should closely monitor whale activity and key resistance and support levels to navigate RENDER’s next moves in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
