Donald Trump’s winning odds on the top betting marketplace have declined sharply, with some calling it manipulation.
Currently, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are the two leading U.S. presidential candidates. Both have shown support for crypto, but Trump has demonstrated particular enthusiasm for Bitcoin and the crypto sector during his campaign events, and he has also received endorsement from Dogecoin fan Elon Musk.
The latest Polymarket data shows Trump’s winning odds fell from a peak of 67% on October 30 to 58.1% by November 2, while Harris’s odds increased from 34.4% to 41.1%. A Washington Post poll also found their support nearly equal in the key state of Pennsylvania as the election nears.
Polymarket shows that Trump's winning rate has fallen since it reached a peak of 67% on October 30, and has dropped to 58.1% on November 2, while Harris's has increased from a low of 34.4% to 41.1%. A Washington Post poll found that in the final days, Harris and Trump's support… pic.twitter.com/jJFTPv3h1r
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 2, 2024
This shows strong support for both candidates, leading to a close competition. With the election date on November 5, volatility in market sentiment is rising.
Recently, a report revealed that a Frenchman, who has no direct involvement in the U.S. election, placed a $38 million bet on Trump. If Trump wins, he could secure over $80 million; otherwise, he will lose most of his wager.
Bitcoin Price Action
Over the last two days, Bitcoin’s price has shown volatility around the $69k level. Many crypto analysts suggest that the Bitcoin market has experienced significant outflows due to the sudden drop in Trump’s winning odds.
The current trading price of Bitcoin is $69,732, a 0.72% increase over the last 24 hours.
Current #Bitcoin price is $69,718 pic.twitter.com/qqmdIg6rXt
— Bitcoinik (@Bitcoinikdotcom) November 2, 2024
Although the price level appears relatively stable, notable fluctuations and a large capital outflow from the BTC spot market have occurred.
On November 1, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $54.94 million, marking the first outflow after seven days of inflows. Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced a net outflow of $10.93 million.
Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net outflow of $54.9403 million on November 1, the first net outflow after the net inflow in the past 7 days. Ethereum spot ETF had a total net outflow of $10.9256 million. https://t.co/59u0BnEqLG pic.twitter.com/4z0zBmc1Jg
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 2, 2024
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