While October has historically been one of the strongest months for Bitcoin (BTC), a trader argues that placing too much importance on the entire month is wrong.

“I do believe focusing too much on one month versus periods or larger blocks of time is a mistake,” Oliver Velez wrote in an Oct. 2 X post.

The average monthly return in October for Bitcoin is 20.65%. Source: CoinGlass

Velez emphasized that while October is often dubbed “Uptober” for its historically strong returns, it is “typically the second half or later part of October that has huge bullish tendencies, not so much the first half.”

Echoing a similar sentiment, Cane Island Alternative Advisors founder Timothy Peterson stated in an Oct. 2 X post that,

“Most of ‘Uptober’ doesn’t start until after the 19th. Be patient.”Source: Timothy Peterson

Velez suggested that traders take a broader perspective by looking “at the stats from October all the way through May.”

It comes after both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) have seen price declines since Oct. 1, 5.6% and 11.4% respectively.

Bitcoin is trading at $60,113 at the time of publication. Source: TradingView

Peterson pointed out that this October month has been the “worst start for Bitcoin in at least ten years.”

However, Velez believes the slow October start could just be setting the stage for a more robust market push later in the month.

“This September into the first part of October weakness is what sets up the bullish aftermath. Think as if the market is squatting during this time before it leaps into the air to remain there for the next few months,” Velez claimed.

“No matter what the academics operating from their chalkboards and fancy diagrams say, October has historically kicked off the most bullish part of the cycle.”

Meanwhile, pseudonymous crypto trader Titan of Crypto noted that the asset performed better than expected in September, which has often seen negative returns for crypto. Still, with October’s slow start, traders are already bracing for the worst this month.

“September started in red, and everyone was calling for the $40k. Yet, it closed with a green monthly candle, with the 38.2% Fibonacci level holding strong,” they opined in an Oct. 2 X post.

“Now, October just started, and it’s all gloom & doom again,” they added.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.