An analysis of the Bitcoin (BTC) Unrealized Profit Ratio comparing new and old whales suggests that large Bitcoin holders have not yet realized sufficient profits to justify dumping their sizable holdings onto the markets, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju explained in an Oct. 2 post.
According to the analyst, newer Bitcoin whales — those holding the asset for five months or less — would only realize a 1% profit on their investment if they sold at current market prices.
Older whales are faring better, with their Unrealized Profit Ratio reaching approximately 1.27 on Sept. 30, compared to newer whales at 0.01. However, Ju noted that these older whales — who have maintained their positions for over five months — "Haven’t seen particularly high returns" during this current cycle.
Unrealized Profit Ratio New vs Old Bitcoin Whales. Source: CryptoQuant
Ju concluded that Bitcoin whales are unlikely to dump their holdings onto the market until liquidity from retail investors is injected — pushing prices higher and giving large holders an exit.
Middle East tensions crash Bitcoin's price
Following the most recent flare-up of tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds based in the United States recorded roughly $243 million in outflows on Oct. 1.
These outflows reversed eight consecutive days of inflows and represented the most significant drawdown in nearly a month.
The uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and the looming threat of a broader, prolonged conflict has led some investors to forecast a price floor of $54,000 or lower for Bitcoin amid growing pressure to exit risk-on assets subject to macroeconomic price swings.
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin will take time to reach its previous all-time high
Veteran analyst Willy Woo expressed a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin; however, Woo also noted that it would take some time for Bitcoin to reclaim the $74,000 level.
The analyst forecast a fairly tepid October with price trading sideways until November or December of 2024.
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