90% Chance Bitcoin Hits New High by March 2025, Says Economist
Timothy Peterson, a renowned network economist and crypto analyst, predicts a 90% chance of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by March 2025. Announced on X (formerly Twitter), Peterson’s forecast is based on his extensive research and analytical framework.
Peterson's analysis, detailed in his paper “Lowest Price Forward: Why Bitcoin’s Price is Never Looking Back,” uses Metcalfe’s Law, which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users. He argues that as Bitcoin's user base grows, its value will increase exponentially.
Peterson employs a unique methodology focusing on Bitcoin's historical lowest prices, termed the "Never Look Back Price" (NLB). By plotting NLB data points on a lognormal scale adjusted by a “square root time” scale, he gains deeper insights into Bitcoin's long-term growth patterns. This conservative approach minimizes the risk of overvaluation by emphasizing the lowest historical prices.
Peterson’s prediction reflects a broader confidence in Bitcoin’s sustained growth, grounded in historical trends and adoption curves. He concludes, “As long as adoption continues, Bitcoin’s value — represented by its NLB price — will go up. If adoption is hindered, then the price will stagnate or drop.”
This forecast provides a positive outlook for Bitcoin investors, highlighting the importance of continued adoption and network growth. As Peterson’s analysis shows, understanding Bitcoin’s value through a conservative, data-driven lens can offer more reliable predictions, even amidst market fluctuations and external shocks.
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