Ok, so wtf just happened? A quick 6am (just woke up in tbilisi) analysis going through Twitter, Whale Groups and my DMs. What we notice, is: After a period of Nothing, suddenly RED!
First thought for most people: Past Performance equals Future Performance (this is sarcasm if you don't get it, yet most people truly believe this) and look for Technical Analysis... Ah, true, this line f-ed this line, so yeah... For fuck's sake... stop listening to TA!
So, when you truly look at it, what becomes clear very fast, that this sell-off got triggered by something on the spot market, and then caused massive liquidations on the futures. How do you know this? Well, data:
So, what triggered the liquidations? 3 potential candidates:
Candidate 1: Space X selling their BTC. I think this is a non-event, as it happened way earlier and doesn't fit with the timeline.
Candidate 2: Evergrande filing for bankruptcy. I give this a very high probability for being the culprit, as it is massive news AND stocks also sold off because of it, especially after hours!!
Candidate 3: Grayscale converting to an ETF on Friday. As mentioned countless of times before, all Bitcoin Spot ETFs are bullish except for this one, due to the risk free arbitrage of long GBTC & Short BTC. Which is what we are seeing right now!! Possible, but speculation.
Where do we go from here? We are seeing a 2023 where Binance doesn't have to offload their USD treasury anymore and it is painful... Expect more of that :(
There is a silver lining though: Price is already recovering and... you can't be taxed on losses... Have a god Friday Everyone! Stay Strong!
