Noticias

According to Odaily, Bitcoin has recently broken upward, with speculations surrounding the potential outcomes of the U.S. election suggesting it may reach new historical highs. The correlation between Bitcoin prices and capital inflows is expected to increase further, with liquidity becoming an increasingly significant price driver. Last week, there was a substantial influx of global funds into U.S. market Bitcoin spot trading funds, with the market betting on a Trump victory in the U.S. election. Trump's support for Bitcoin is seen as the 'Trump trade,' and the market anticipates that the scale of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs could double by 2025 and grow fourfold by 2027. Investors in Hong Kong are also watching closely for opportunities to invest in Bitcoin.

According to Cointelegraph: Bitcoin held in long-term wallets has surpassed $10 billion in value, even as the cryptocurrency's price has dipped below $60,000. This marks a significant milestone for long-term Bitcoin holders, who have collectively spent over $10 billion on the asset and are showing a strong tendency to hold rather than sell, despite recent market fluctuations.Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the crucial,000 level that traders have watched closely. Source: CoinMarketCap According to an Aug. 27 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, this is the first time the realized capitalization of long-term holders has exceeded $10 billion. The realized cap reflects the price at which each Bitcoin was last sold and is often used to gauge market sentiment.Long-term holders, defined as those who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days, are less likely to sell during short-term market dips. Since Bitcoin started trading below $69,000 on July 30, the selling pressure from these holders has decreased by 3.7 times, according to another CryptoQuant analyst, Axel Adler.Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $59,404, down 5.47% in the past 24 hours and 0.11% over the past week. This price is approximately 8% lower than the $64,490 average that long-term holders paid, as reported by ChainExposed.Despite the recent price drop, many traders believe the market could see further declines, potentially forcing long-term holders to continue holding out for better profit opportunities. Some traders view the $50,000 level as critical support; a break below this could introduce further uncertainty in the market.This trend follows a June report by Glassnode, which found that about 75% of all circulating Bitcoin had not been moved in over six months, indicating strong holding behaviour among Bitcoin investors.

According to 10x Research: Last week, Bitcoin traders faced a whirlwind of economic and political events that reshaped market narratives and left many wondering what’s next for the cryptocurrency. As old stories fade and new ones begin to emerge, it’s clear that the market’s focus is shifting, and traders are adapting to the changes. Here’s what happened and what to watch for in the coming weeks.Market Narratives in Flux: Interpreting trends becomes particularly challenging during pivotal moments in the economy and financial markets. Old narratives are being questioned, and new ones are gradually taking shape. Traders and investors must pay close attention to the market’s signals, as the focus tends to shift from one prevailing narrative to the next. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for navigating these transitions effectively.Political Drama Fuels Market Volatility: The market’s concerns shifted in late June following a German supply overhang, moving quickly to the impending Mt. Gox payouts in early July. But the narrative took a dramatic turn with the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and his selection of Bitcoin holder JD Vance as his vice-presidential pick. As Trump’s election odds surged to 70%, Bitcoin’s price became closely tied to these political developments. However, the momentum stalled on July 21 when President Biden exited the 2025 U.S. Presidential Race.Struggling to Break $70K: Another push to break the $70,000 mark came after discussions of a potential Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, fueling high expectations for Trump’s speech at the Nashville Bitcoin conference. Unfortunately, the speech failed to live up to the hype. Bitcoin peaked when the U.S. government transferred $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, marking the end of its rally. The $60,000 to $70,000 trading range has held steady, but traders are now bracing for a potential shift in this range.Economic Weakness Raises Concerns: The narrative then shifted towards fears of economic weakness as the ISM Manufacturing Index—a key leading indicator for the U.S. economy—plunged sharply. This decline was coupled with a sustained rise in the U.S. unemployment rate, which tends to fluctuate in large cycles. Additionally, disappointing revenue guidance from major U.S. tech companies following late July earnings announcements has heightened fears of a deeper economic downturn. However, macroeconomic data evolves slowly, with critical updates not expected until early September.Political Shifts and Market Reactions: Although the early July rally was fueled by the attempted assassination of Trump and his improving election odds, those odds are now reversing. Efforts like the ‘Harris For Crypto’ initiative seem aimed at courting less informed voters, but significant moves to shift the SEC towards a more crypto-friendly stance have yet to materialize. The Democratic leadership’s decision to remove a sitting U.S. President from the 2025 election race signals a significant power play, but even if Harris were more favorable to crypto, a less powerful SEC Chair would likely be easier to influence.Upcoming Debate and Economic Data: The Harris campaign has yet to define its core platform clearly, and the upcoming debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 will coincide with critical early September data releases, including the ISM on September 2 and employment data on September 6, followed by the Fed meeting later in the month. While business leaders have generally shown indifference toward the occupant of the White House, a Harris presidency would likely maintain the SEC’s current stance on crypto. Her approach might need to be more progressive, especially given the assertive crypto-friendly positions many took when Trump was leading in the polls.Regulatory Pressure Mounts: On Friday, August 9, the Fed ordered the crypto-friendly bank Customer Bank to limit risks from digital asset clients and agreed to tackle the regulator’s concerns that it had strayed from proper compliance. Customer Bank, which deals with Galaxy Digital, Coinbase, and Circle, among others, was found to have been too relaxed around anti-money laundering rules.Market Response to Political Odds: After Bitcoin closed the CME gap between the Friday, August 2 close and the Monday, August 5 open, the weakness observed on Monday, August 12, can be linked to Harris’s presidential odds rising to 51%, compared to Trump’s 46%, according to betting markets. Historically, the late summer of U.S. election years often sees market corrections as uncertainty about the election outcome increases.Stock Market Patterns and Bitcoin’s Risk: Stocks typically peak in mid-July and show weakness in August and September; recent movements have closely followed this pattern. This suggests a risk of further price dips heading into September, especially with elevated election-related risks or the emergence of new threats. Another potential risk could be a military event involving Iran, though its impact on Bitcoin is less predictable.ETF Behavior and Market Sentiment: Unlike previous dips below $60,000, ETFs did not seize the opportunity to buy the dip this time and instead became net sellers, with $350 million in outflows this month. Bitcoin has not reacted strongly to last month’s CPI decline, as lower inflation is now primarily anticipated. The market’s focus has shifted toward growth prospects and the upcoming election. Therefore, we shouldn’t expect a significant rally if the CPI falls below 3.0% this week. However, a higher CPI number could raise concerns about stagflation, suggesting the Fed may hold off on aggressive rate cuts due to persistent inflation. Will the Trading Range Shift? It seems unlikely that Bitcoin will break out to new all-time highs soon, and the risk could be more to the downside. However, the most critical question for Bitcoin traders is whether the $60,000 to $70,000 trading range is still valid or has shifted downward to $50,000 to $60,000. Although Bitcoin successfully tested the January Bitcoin ETF high with its Monday, August 5 drop to $49,100, the trading range might have shifted lower as Bitcoin ETF buying has slowed and stablecoin inflows have only temporarily resumed this week.Navigating Uncertainty: While many narratives have driven Bitcoin during the last month, there appears to be an overhang of uncertainty that will take (at least) until September to clear out—economic strength, Fed rate cut confirmation, and the U.S. Presidential Election. In this environment, a short-term tactical approach might be the best way to generate returns. Bet when the odds are in your favor and take profits quickly.

According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin has experienced significant fluctuations in its market value recently. The cryptocurrency, known for its volatility, has seen both sharp increases and declines over the past few weeks. Analysts attribute these changes to a variety of factors, including regulatory developments, market sentiment, and macroeconomic trends.Bitcoin's price movements have been closely watched by investors and market participants. The recent volatility has sparked discussions about the future of the cryptocurrency and its potential as a store of value. Some experts believe that Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain strong, citing its limited supply and growing adoption. Others, however, caution that the market could face further turbulence as regulatory scrutiny intensifies and global economic conditions evolve.In addition to regulatory and economic factors, technological advancements and innovations within the cryptocurrency space are also influencing Bitcoin's market dynamics. Developments such as the Lightning Network and other scaling solutions aim to improve transaction efficiency and reduce costs, potentially enhancing Bitcoin's utility and appeal. As the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve, market participants are closely monitoring these advancements and their potential impact on Bitcoin's value and adoption.Overall, Bitcoin's recent market trends highlight the complex interplay of various factors shaping its price movements. While cryptocurrency remains a subject of debate and speculation, its role in the broader financial landscape continues to evolve. Investors and analysts are keeping a close eye on developments in the regulatory, economic, and technological spheres to better understand and navigate the future of Bitcoin.

According to Coinelegraph: As Bitcoin's price dipped below $60,000 for the second time in four months, mentions of the phrase "buy the dip" surged on social media platforms Reddit, X, 4chan, and Bitcoin Talk. According to crypto research firm Santiment, these mentions doubled over the past two days, reflecting growing interest and debate among crypto traders about the current stage of the Bitcoin bull market. Santiment noted the increased activity in a post on X, stating, “The crowd is showing signs of seeing this as a buy the dip opportunity. Ideally, we wait for their enthusiasm to settle down. The time to buy is when they are impatient and skeptical.” Frequency of “Buy the Dip” across four social platforms. Source: Santiment Bitcoin's Current Status and Market Sentiment Bitcoin is currently trading at $58,900, a 4.2% drop in the last 24 hours, reaching its lowest level since May 3, according to CoinGecko data. The dip has sparked a variety of responses from market analysts and investors. Mt. Gox Impact Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat, attributed much of the negative sentiment to the impending offload of $9 billion worth of Bitcoin by Mt. Gox to its creditors, scheduled for later in July. Lee suggested that the market might rebound sharply in the second half of the year once the Mt. Gox issue is resolved. He maintained his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2024, stating, “[Mt. Gox] was a huge overhang for many years [but knowing] that is going to disappear in July, I think it’s a reason to expect a pretty sharp rebound in the second half.” ETF Inflows and Market Confidence Another source of concern is the inconsistent inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have only seen positive movement in six of the last 18 trading days, as reported by Farside Investors. Skepticism and Fear in the Market Not all analysts are confident that the market has hit bottom. Kudret Ayyldr, research manager at GCM Investment, expressed concern over Bitcoin's failure to sustain levels above $67,500 since April. In a July 3 post on X, Ayyldr suggested that the current negativity might lead to a correction to the $48,000-$50,000 range. Crypto Fear and Greed Index score. Source: Alternative.me The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry, is currently in the “Fear” zone with a score of 44 out of 100. The index reached an 18-month low of 31 on June 25 and has fluctuated between 30 and 53 since then. Conclusion The surge in 'buy the dip' mentions highlights the ongoing volatility and diverse opinions within the crypto market. As Bitcoin continues to navigate these turbulent waters, investors and analysts alike remain divided on whether the bottom is in or further corrections are ahead.

According to 10x Research: Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant drop, falling below the $60,000 mark and heading towards $50,000. This decline marks the first time in 10 months that Bitcoin has crossed its 200-day moving average (MA), a critical support line. The cryptocurrency's price decline is attributed to ongoing seller interest and market structure changes. Key Points: 1. Market Conditions and Price Decline:   - Recent Drop: Bitcoin dipped more than 2% on July 4, reaching new local lows of $57,885 on Bitstamp.   - 200-Day MA: The 200-day moving average, a critical support level, was crossed for the first time since October 2023, sitting at $58,400 at the time of writing. 2. Spot Selling and Liquidations:   - Spot Selling: Steady selling from spot markets has created challenging conditions for Bitcoin bulls.   - Long Liquidations: Data from CoinGlass shows nearly $60 million in 24-hour Bitcoin long liquidations. 3. Bearish Market Analysis:   - Bearish Narrative: Market structure analysis and trading signals have supported a bearish narrative for almost a month, with buy flows drying up and sell flows accelerating.   - Breaking Key Levels: Bitcoin is breaking significant technical and psychological levels at $60,000, a key level for Bitcoin miners and Bitcoin Spot ETF buyers. 4. Long Bitcoin Positions and Re-Entry Levels:   - Long Positions: Many traders remain long on Bitcoin, while a correction towards $50,000/$55,000 could offer better re-entry levels.   - Risk Management: Proper risk management is vital to prevent losses during this market correction. 5. Ethereum Concerns and Market Dynamics:   - Ethereum Support: Ethereum has also faced challenges, breaking key support levels and experiencing significant price declines.   - Market Dynamics: The market has seen increased sell flow and crypto-to-fiat offramps, contributing to the price declines. 6. Seasonal Trends and Miner Liquidations:   - Seasonal Trends: Poor Q3 seasonals and miner liquidations are expected to impact Bitcoin prices negatively.   - Miner Liquidations: Miners will likely liquidate more BTC inventory as prices approach their $60,000 breakeven price. 7. Double Top Concerns and ETF Offloads:   - Double Top: Concerns about a double top formation could lead to further price declines.   - ETF Offloads: Bitcoin ETFs and OGs have offloaded significant amounts of Bitcoin, contributing to the market's liquidity challenges. 8. Open Interest and Liquidations:   - Open Interest: Open interest has remained relatively firm despite sharp price drops, indicating potential for further liquidations.   - Liquidations: Many long positions are still trapped, which could lead to additional liquidations as prices fall. 9. Stock-to-Flow Model Critique:   - Model Critique: The stock-to-flow model has faced criticism, with projections not being met in previous cycles. Bitcoin's recent decline below the $60,000 mark and the crossing of its 200-day moving average highlight the ongoing challenges in the cryptocurrency market. Steady spot selling and significant sell-side pressure have created difficult conditions for Bitcoin bulls. As the market navigates these dynamics, proper risk management and strategic re-entry levels will be crucial for traders. Additionally, exploring new income strategies can help traders surpass their lost dividend income and secure their financial future.

According to Cointelegraph: Corporations are increasingly adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset, with notable companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Coinbase leading the charge. Over the past few years, both private and publicly traded companies have started incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, recognizing its long-term potential and contrasting it with the declining value of the U.S. dollar. Main Takeaways: 1. Corporate Adoption:   - MicroStrategy: Known for its significant Bitcoin holdings, MicroStrategy has accumulated over 1% of the total Bitcoin supply, holding 226,331 BTC at the time of writing.   - Other Companies: Besides MicroStrategy, companies like Coinbase, CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Hut 8, Tesla, Semler Scientific, Mercado Livre, Meitu, and DeFi Technologies have also added Bitcoin to their treasuries. 2. Total Holdings:   - Combined Holdings: Private and public companies collectively hold 812,929 BTC, which is approximately 3.87% of Bitcoin’s total supply, according to BitcoinTreasuries data. 3. Motivations for Adoption:   - Inflation Hedge: Bitcoin is seen as a hedge against inflation and monetary debasement, offering a predictable monetary policy with its 21 million supply cap.   - Long-Term Potential: Companies view Bitcoin as an appreciating store of value, contrasting with the slow, steady decline of the U.S. dollar. 4. Market Impact:   - Positive Perception: The impact of companies holding Bitcoin has been widely seen as positive, with motivations rooted in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and its low correlation with traditional asset classes. Detailed Analysis: Corporate Adoption Trends: - MicroStrategy's Influence: MicroStrategy’s massive Bitcoin holdings have made it a prominent player in the industry, often overshadowing other corporate Bitcoin holders. - Diverse Adopters: Companies from various sectors, including cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitcoin miners, electric car manufacturers, medical manufacturers, e-commerce giants, and tech firms, have adopted Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Market Dynamics: - Spot Bitcoin ETFs: The rise of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States has made it easier for corporations to gain exposure to Bitcoin, further driving adoption. - Inflation Concerns: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s aim to keep inflation at 2% per year has not always played out, with inflation hitting 9.1% in 2022. This volatility has prompted corporations to seek more stable assets like Bitcoin. Expert Insights: - Binance Spokesperson: Highlighted Bitcoin’s low correlation with traditional asset classes, making it attractive to institutional investors as a hedge against market volatility. - Bill Zielke (BitPay): Emphasized Bitcoin’s long-term vision as an appreciating store of value and hedge against inflation. - Curtis Schlaufman (DeFi Technologies): Stated that Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation and monetary debasement influenced their decision to adopt it as a primary treasury reserve asset. Managing Bitcoin’s Volatility: Challenges: - Price Fluctuations: Bitcoin’s significant price swings can be startling for business investors accustomed to more stable asset classes. - Risk Management: Companies need to educate employees and stakeholders about Bitcoin and manage the risks associated with its volatility. Future Outlook: Potential for Broader Adoption: - Other Cryptocurrencies: While Bitcoin is currently the primary choice for treasury reserves, other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, with its smart contract capabilities, could also be considered. - Stablecoins: Stablecoins offer a fast, low-cost option for cross-border payments and employee compensation, providing a less volatile alternative to Bitcoin. Institutional Influence: - Retail vs. Corporate Holders: The growing corporate adoption of Bitcoin may place certain digital assets out of reach for retail participants, potentially altering the industry’s egalitarian ethos. - Mainstream Integration: The trend towards corporate and institutional adoption could accelerate the integration of digital assets into the broader financial ecosystem, influencing investment strategies, payment systems, and financial regulations. Corporations are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets due to the looming uncertainty of future inflation and monetary policy. While Bitcoin’s volatility presents challenges, its long-term potential has swayed some companies to adopt it as a treasury asset. The growing corporate adoption of Bitcoin further legitimizes the crypto asset class and may profoundly alter the industry. As more companies recognize Bitcoin’s potential, the trend of corporate adoption is likely to continue, shaping the future of finance.

QCP Capital has released an article analyzing the recent market dynamics, highlighting a divergence between the performance of US stocks and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Despite a bullish statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which propelled US stocks to new highs, BTC and ETH have not mirrored this upward momentum. Main Takeaways: 1. US Stock Market Surge:   - Powell's Statement: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the US economy is on a disinflationary path, which boosted investor confidence and led to a surge in US stock prices. 2. Cryptocurrency Market Reaction:   - BTC and ETH Prices: Despite the positive sentiment in the stock market, BTC and ETH prices remained relatively stagnant, hovering around $60,000 and $3,300, respectively.   - Lack of Upward Momentum: The upward momentum seen in the stock market did not translate to the cryptocurrency market, indicating a decoupling of market reactions. 3. Options Market Sentiment:   - Bullish Bias: The options market remains biased towards the bullish side, with significant buying interest in long-term options for BTC at $100,000 and $120,000 strike prices.   - Year-End Rebound Anticipation: This bullish sentiment suggests that the market is still anticipating a potential rebound by the end of the year. 4. Market Uncertainty:   - Mt. Gox Supply Concerns: Looking ahead, BTC is expected to remain sluggish in the third quarter due to uncertainties surrounding the potential release of Bitcoin from the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate.   - Supply Dynamics: The market remains cautious about the impact of additional supply entering the market, which could exert downward pressure on prices. Detailed Analysis: US Stock Market Dynamics: - Disinflationary Path: Powell's comments about the US economy developing along a disinflationary path have reassured investors, leading to a rally in the stock market. - Investor Confidence: The positive outlook on inflation and economic growth has bolstered investor confidence, driving stock prices to new highs. Cryptocurrency Market Divergence: - Stagnant Prices: Despite the bullish sentiment in traditional markets, BTC and ETH have not experienced similar gains, indicating a divergence in market behaviour. - Market Sentiment: The lack of upward momentum in BTC and ETH suggests that cryptocurrency investors may be more cautious or are facing different market pressures compared to stock market investors. Options Market Insights: - Bullish Long-Term Outlook: The significant buying interest in long-term BTC options at high strike prices indicates that investors are still optimistic about the long-term potential of Bitcoin. - Year-End Rebound: The bullish bias in the options market aligns with expectations of a potential rebound in cryptocurrency prices towards the end of the year. Future Outlook: - Third Quarter Expectations: BTC is expected to remain sluggish in the third quarter due to ongoing uncertainties, particularly related to the potential release of Bitcoin from the Mt. Gox estate. - Supply Concerns: The market is wary of the impact that additional supply from Mt. Gox could have on BTC prices, contributing to a cautious outlook. QCP Capital's analysis highlights a notable divergence between the performance of US stocks and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. While Powell's statement on the US economy has driven stock prices to new highs, BTC and ETH have not followed suit, remaining relatively stagnant. Despite this, the options market shows a bullish bias, with significant interest in long-term BTC options, suggesting that investors are still optimistic about a year-end rebound. However, uncertainties surrounding the potential release of Bitcoin from the Mt. Gox estate are expected to keep BTC sluggish in the third quarter. As the market navigates these dynamics, investors will be closely monitoring both macroeconomic indicators and cryptocurrency-specific developments.

On July 2, 2024, a pivotal ruling emerged from the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. Judge Amy Berman Jackson dismissed several core claims by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume. This decision represents a significant moment in the regulatory landscape of the cryptocurrency market. Key Takeaways: - Rejection of Key SEC Claims: The court dismissed multiple critical arguments by the SEC, notably that crypto tokens, including BNB and Binance’s fiat-backed stablecoin BUSD, could be categorized as securities. - Secondary Market Sales: The SEC's contention that secondary market sales of BNB tokens on crypto exchanges were securities transactions was also rejected, diminishing the SEC’s capacity to assert its enforcement over these activities. - Continued Claims: Despite these dismissals, certain claims from the SEC remain active in the lawsuit, yet these face considerable hurdles for validation. Critical Findings from the Court: 1. The Meaning of “Investment Contract”: - SEC’s Broad Assertion Rejected: The SEC’s broad assertion that crypto tokens are investment contracts was deemed legally untenable. The focus, per the court's opinion, should be on the circumstances surrounding each transaction, not on the tokens themselves. - Legal Precedents: The court highlighted the SEC’s approach as inconsistent with Supreme Court precedent, emphasizing that the mere existence of a token does not classify it as a security. 2. BNB Sales on Secondary Crypto Exchanges: - Dismissed Claim on Secondary Sales: The court ruled that the SEC failed to provide sufficient facts to suggest that secondary market sales of BNB tokens were conducted with the expectation of profits, a crucial element for something to be classified as a security under the Howey Test. - Limiting SEC’s Enforcement Ability: This ruling notably restricts the SEC’s authority to impose regulations on secondary market transactions facilitated by exchanges. 3. Binance’s Stablecoin, BUSD: - Investment Contract Argument Rejected: The assertion that Binance’s BUSD is an investment contract was dismissed. The court found no evidence to suggest that BUSD was marketed with an expectation of profit due to Binance's efforts. - Consistency in Regulation: Points of inconsistency among various U.S. regulatory bodies regarding stablecoins were highlighted, illustrating the complexities and uncertainties in the crypto regulation landscape. SEC’s Remaining Claims: While several claims were dismissed, the court allowed certain aspects, such as the SEC's argument on direct sales of BNB as securities transactions, to proceed. However, proving these claims will be challenging for the SEC, as they must demonstrate that token purchases were made with investment expectations. Implications and Future Steps: - Significance for Binance and Crypto Industry: This ruling sets a significant precedent by recognizing strict boundaries on the SEC’s regulatory reach over the crypto industry. It is a substantial victory for Binance and the broader crypto sector. - Calls for Consistent Regulation: The judgment underscores the need for coherent and sensible regulation, instead of a piecemeal approach that creates ambiguity and inconsistency. - Ongoing Defense: Binance remains committed to defending against the SEC's regulatory attempts and will continue to advocate for fair and consistent oversight that fosters innovation and growth within the crypto market. The decision by Judge Amy Berman Jackson marks a crucial development in the ongoing regulatory battles within the cryptocurrency industry, signalling a call for more structured and sensible approaches to regulation. As the case progresses, it underscores the continued tension and complexities between regulatory ambitions and the rapidly evolving digital asset landscape. This ruling is a step toward establishing clearer regulatory frameworks that can support both innovation and market integrity.

According to BlockBeats, Matthew Sigel, the Digital Asset Research Director at VanEck, has suggested in a recent investor report that the crypto market peak might occur between the second and fourth quarters of 2025 if the current cycle follows previous trends. Historically, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a clear four-year cycle, with price peaks typically occurring after halving. Each halving has set a new historical high. Sigel believes that the current cooling phase of the market is a precursor to another surge. In addition, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at digital asset management company Bitwise, anticipates that the market will further rise after the eventual launch of a US Ethereum spot ETF. By the end of 2025, the Ethereum ETF could see a net inflow of $15 billion. 'Investors like tech stocks, and it's easy to imagine investors selling a small amount of tech investment and buying ETH,' Hougan said. Pav Hundal, Chief Market Analyst at cryptocurrency trading platform Swyftx, stated that decentralized finance is likely to be more attractive to businesses and retail investors when the political environment is so unpredictable. 'If nothing unexpected happens, decentralized finance will definitely be more attractive to businesses and individual investors,' Hundal said.

According to Binance Research: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 2.6% year-on-year in May, in line with analysts’ expectations. This slight decrease from the previous month’s 2.7% increase indicates a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy. Key Highlights PCE Inflation Rate: The PCE Index recorded a 2.6% rise in May, consistent with market forecasts. Comparison to Previous Month: This figure represents a minor decline from the 2.7% year-on-year increase reported in April. Core PCE Inflation: The latest reading marks the lowest core PCE inflation rate since March 2021. Market Reaction: As of the report, S&P 500 futures increased by approximately 0.4%, while the cryptocurrency market remained relatively stable. Implications of the Report The PCE inflation rate meeting expectations and showing a slight decline from the prior month suggests a positive trend towards easing inflation. If sustained, this trend could reduce the Federal Reserve's pressure to maintain high interest rates, paving the way for potential future rate cuts. Such a move would likely benefit equities and cryptocurrencies. Traders are already factoring in a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. What’s Next? FOMC Minutes: Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on July 3 for the Fed's latest views on monetary policy. Employment Report: The U.S. employment report, scheduled for release on July 5, will provide additional insights into the job market, further shaping expectations for inflation and interest rate policies. This report on the U.S. PCE inflation underscores a hopeful sign of easing inflationary pressures, which could influence future Federal Reserve actions and market trends.

The U.S. dollar is set to mark its second consecutive quarter of gains, surging to a nearly four-decade high against the Japanese yen. This rise comes despite a decline in overnight U.S. Treasury yields and data showing a solid rise in Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Performance Highlights According to Jinshi, the yen has fallen 6% against the dollar this quarter and a staggering 12% so far this year, making it the worst-performing currency among the G10 nations. The euro has also hit a record low against the yen, further illustrating the yen's weakening position. Ray Attrill, Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at National Australia Bank, commented: "In a low volatility environment, the market's desire for carry trades remains strong. After the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen rose above 160 without any intervention, market apprehension appears to have lessened significantly." Factors Influencing the Dollar's Strength The primary driver behind the dollar's ongoing rally is key U.S. inflation data anticipation, which could further influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. Despite an overnight decline in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar attracts investors looking for stability amid global uncertainties. Additionally, robust economic indicators from the U.S. have bolstered confidence in the dollar. These factors have offset concerns that could have otherwise weakened the greenback. The Yen's Struggles Japan's yen has faced substantial pressure, unable to gain ground against the dollar despite positive domestic economic data, such as a notable rise in Tokyo's CPI. The relentless depreciation of the yen highlights the contrasting economic conditions between the U.S. and Japan. "The yen's significant decline, particularly against the dollar, underscores the ongoing challenges faced by Japan's economy, despite favourable CPI figures," Attrill noted. Market Outlook As the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen and the yen weakens, traders are likely to maintain their preference for carry trades. The dollar's resilience and the yen's decline suggest that these trends may persist, especially in a low-volatility environment. The U.S. dollar's march to a nearly four-decade high against the yen signals sustained confidence in the greenback's strength, driven by favourable economic indicators and anticipation of key inflation data. Meanwhile, the yen's persistent decline highlights the challenges within Japan's economic landscape.

JPMorgan Chase has issued an economic outlook suggesting potential market movements in the cryptocurrency sector. Analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted in a recent report that Mt. Gox creditors might liquidate some of their Bitcoin holdings in July, potentially pressuring the market. However, a rebound is anticipated in August. Key Points from JPMorgan's Analysis - Mt. Gox Creditors: As per JPMorgan's analysis, Mt. Gox creditors face downside risks, similar to those recently seen by Gemini Earn creditors who liquidated some of their crypto assets. If the liquidation primarily occurs in July, this is likely to apply downward pressure on cryptocurrency prices during the month. - Market Rebound: The report suggests that once the liquidation phase concludes, particularly by August, the market is expected to rebound as the selling pressure diminishes. - FTX Repayments: Another significant development highlighted is FTX's upcoming cash repayments, estimated between $14 billion and $16 billion. These repayments are expected to occur shortly after the liquidation plan is approved on October 7. Analysts speculate that these funds could find their way back into the cryptocurrency markets, further supporting prices. Implications for the Cryptocurrency Market July Market Pressure: The potential liquidation from Mt. Gox creditors could lead to increased selling pressure in July. Investors might see short-term downturns due to this influx of Bitcoin into the market. August Rebound: As the liquidation pressures ease, August is expected to see a market rebound. Reduced selling pressure combined with potential reinvestment from FTX repayments could fuel this recovery. FTX's Influence: The anticipated $14-$16 billion repayments from FTX are crucial. These repayments could provide liquidity to cryptocurrency-native creditors who might reinvest in the market, supporting asset prices and stabilization. Analyst Insights Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou remarked, "Assuming that most of the liquidation of Mt. Gox creditors occurs in July, cryptocurrency prices will be further pressured in July, but will rebound from August. The potential inflows from FTX repayments could also serve as a significant catalyst for market recovery." This outlook underscores the interconnectedness of various cryptocurrency events and their collective impact on market dynamics. JPMorgan Chase's analysis provides a nuanced view of upcoming cryptocurrency market trends, highlighting the potential short-term pressures from Mt. Gox Bitcoin liquidations and the longer-term rebound supported by FTX repayments. These insights can aid investors in making informed decisions amidst the evolving market landscape.

According to Cointelegraph: Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a dramatic price surge on June 12, skyrocketing $1,500 in mere seconds following the release of U.S. inflation data. The unexpected drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided a boost to BTC and other risk assets, reversing days of price declines in the cryptocurrency market. BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView CPI Triggers a 3% BTC Price Surge Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView recorded a rapid BTC price jump to $69,636 on Bitstamp. This surge occurred as the May CPI print indicated that inflation was cooling faster than anticipated. On a month-on-month basis, CPI remained unchanged, and the year-on-year figure was 3.3% — both 0.1% lower than forecasts. CPI % change chart. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics In an official press release, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed:   "The all items index rose 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending May, a smaller increase than the 3.4-percent increase for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.4 per cent over the last 12 months." Market Reaction and Upcoming FOMC Meeting The CPI report was a boon for risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins, which had suffered in the run-up to the data release. As markets now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for later in the day, the decision on interest rate adjustments and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s economic commentary will be closely watched. Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group Financial Commentary and Expectations Reacting to the CPI data, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro expressed optimism. He suggested that the latest CPI figures could give Powell the leeway to consider easing the current tight financial policies characterized by high interest rates. "The stage is set for J Powell to talk easing. Let’s go," he summarized on X (formerly Twitter). Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, highlighted the impact on the U.S. dollar and Treasury Yields: "The Dollar and Treasury Yields are dropping significantly as the markets are expecting rate cuts to be happening. This could be a massive sign for Altcoins and Bitcoin." Future Prospects and Market Sentiment With Bitcoin erasing the losses incurred from the previous week’s U.S. employment data, the market remains volatile ahead of further economic reports. The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicate that market bets are shifting towards a potential rate cut in the September FOMC meeting, now over 70%. The surprising dip in U.S. inflation has reignited optimism in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. As investors await the FOMC’s decisions, the possibility of a more Bitcoin-friendly financial policy easing becomes increasingly likely.

According to PANews, over the past six months, 189 private/KOL rounds have been invested in, and the best allocation strategies have been identified. A good product and a community built around the project are great, but they cannot guarantee further growth of the token, especially if the token economic model is designed for the next 1-2 years. The fundamentals should address the problem of high pressure, which is why this information is being shared. The best token economics to invest in include TGE unlocking 5-7%, which allows for low token circulation (leaving a lot of room for rapid market value growth), stable and growing token prices, and the opportunity to close positions from investor push in a bull market. The circulation supply at TGE time is 11-15%, with the unlocking system as follows: 11-15% at launch, 20% at the end of the first year, 30-35% at the end of the second year, and then linear unlocking for several years. A lock-in period of 3-6 months is recommended. Investing within a 12-month lock-in period is a very foolish idea because our unlocking will occur in a bear market. However, a 6-month lock-in period can help retail investors have more confidence in the token, which will bring more purchases and additional liquidity. If retail investors are confident, then investors and market manipulators will be very cautious. This means that we will grow steadily over several months or years, which is why we will sell our tokens at the market high point. The team's vesting period is after the investors (rule), with linear vesting. The best allocation is 30-40% for the community/ecosystem, 15% for investors, 15% for founders, 25% for capital reserves, 5% for advisors/KOL, and 5% for market makers and CEX. Ideally, the unlocking ratio on the day of the TGE (Token Generation Event) is 4% for investors/advisors, 5% for public sales, 6% for the community/reserve, totaling 15%. In conclusion, if you decide to invest in any altcoins, please check according to the standards described above. If you decide to invest in any private/KOL rounds, please also carefully check the standards provided (but sometimes, you can look for better, faster deals). Remember, if you trade, you are gambling. If you analyze and operate according to the news, you are a master. Trading based solely on hype, smart money movements, or technical analysis is a bad idea. You also need to follow the fundamentals and current news (this is the only secret to success).

According to Cointelegraph: Since its trading debut in 2011, Bitcoin (BTC) has consistently delivered impressive returns, boasting an average annual return rate of approximately 104%. This phenomenal growth rate dwarfs the returns of Warren Buffett's renowned portfolio and even the broader U.S. stock markets. The comparison highlights the contrasting risk-reward profiles and performance of these two investment strategies over varying timeframes. Warren Buffett's portfolio vs. U.S. stocks portfolio. Source: Lazy Portfolio ETF Warren Buffett's Portfolio: Less Risk, Steady Gains Performance Metrics: - CAGR: 10.03% - Standard Deviation: 13.67% over the past 30 years Warren Buffett's portfolio, which includes top holdings such as Apple, Bank of America, American Express, Coca-Cola, and Chevron Corp, has yielded an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.03% over the past 30 years. The portfolio's lower standard deviation relative to broader U.S. stock portfolios underscores its reduced volatility and risk. Buffett's investment philosophy highlights long-term value investing, prudent risk management, and a focus on fundamentally robust companies. Bitcoin's annual returns. Source: Curve.eu Bitcoin's Extraordinary Performance Performance Metrics: - CAGR: ~104% since 2011 By comparison, Bitcoin's performance has been extraordinary. Since its debut in 2011, BTC has achieved an average annual return of around 104%. This astronomical CAGR outstrips the returns from Warren Buffett’s portfolio and U.S. stock portfolios significantly. Despite its higher volatility, Bitcoin's returns have attracted both institutional investors and large corporations. Gold's average annual return performance chart. Source: Curve.eu Comparative Analysis Risk and Reward: - Warren Buffett’s Portfolio: Offers impressive, consistent returns with lower volatility, suitable for risk-averse investors. - Bitcoin: Provides much higher returns with significant volatility, attracting those willing to embrace higher risk for potential rewards. Market Perception and Adoption Gold vs. Bitcoin: - Gold: Has provided a modest average annual return of 6% over the past decade. It offers stability and acts as a hedge against economic downturns. - Bitcoin: Often referred to as "digital gold," it has gained favour as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. This perception has driven its appeal as a valuable asset. Spot U.S. Bitcoin ETFs cumulative inflows. Source: Farside Investors  Institutional Adoption - MicroStrategy and Tesla: These companies have added Bitcoin to their reserves, validating its role as a strategic asset. - Spot Bitcoin ETFs: The launch of these funds has further entrenched Bitcoin's status among institutional investors. Volatility Comparison Despite its reputation for volatility, Bitcoin has recently shown lower price fluctuations compared to several S&P 500 stocks, including Tesla, Meta, and Nvidia. This trend suggests a maturing market with potentially stable long-term returns. While Warren Buffett's portfolio represents a conservative, long-term investment strategy with consistent returns and manageable risk, Bitcoin offers staggering potential returns paired with significant volatility. The decision between these two investment strategies ultimately hinges on the investor's risk tolerance and financial goals. BTC holders have enjoyed exceptional gains—yet those gains come with the caveat of higher risk and potential downturns. Conversely, Warren Buffett's risk-averse strategy has proven its merit over decades, appealing to those who prioritize steady growth and stability. As Bitcoin continues to evolve and gain acceptance as a major asset class, its relationship with traditional portfolios and mainstream financial instruments will likely continue to develop. Whether chosen for its potential for high returns or its emerging stability, Bitcoin remains a compelling option in the modern investment landscape.

According to CoinDesk: In the wake of hotter-than-expected U.S. jobs data that dampened hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, QCP Capital, a Singapore-based trading firm, sees the price drop in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as a prime "buy the dip" opportunity. Market Reactions to Payroll Data: - Jobs Report Impact: Friday's non-farm payrolls data revealed the U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs in May, significantly surpassing the estimated 185,000 and April's revised 165,000. -Immediate Market Response: The jobless rate ticked up to 4%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-on-month, above the expected 0.3%. This led to a reduction in the likelihood of a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut in September from 85% to 60%, sending risk assets including cryptocurrencies lower. Cryptocurrency Price Movements: - Bitcoin and Ether: Post-report, Bitcoin fell almost 3% to $68,400, down from near $72,000, while Ether and the CoinDesk 20 index mirrored Bitcoin's downward trend. - QCP Capital's Stance: Despite the downturn, QCP Capital views this as a buying opportunity, anticipating at least one Fed rate cut in the future. Global Interest Rate Dynamics QCP Capital noted that keeping U.S. rates elevated would be challenging as other central banks ease their borrowing costs. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada recently cut rates, initiating a wave of rate reductions within the Group of Seven (G7) nations. MacroMicro data shows an increase in rate cuts by central banks this year, which QCP Capital believes could lead the Fed to follow suit. Strategy and Market Sentiment QCP Capital's market update highlighted:  - Rate Cut Expectations: The markets are expected to increasingly price in at least one Federal Reserve rate cut amid global easing trends. -Opportunity: The trading firm recommends buying the dip, anticipating that the global trend of rate cuts will bolster demand for alternative investments like cryptocurrencies. - Bullish Flows: QCP observed a bullish sentiment, with increased activity in selling aggressive puts and buying call spreads, especially in Bitcoin. The recent dip in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, triggered by stronger-than-anticipated U.S. jobs data, is seen as a strategic entry point by QCP Capital. As global central banks move towards easing, the firm anticipates the Federal Reserve may also adopt a similar stance, creating favorable conditions for a potential rebound in cryptocurrency markets.  

According to Golden Finance: Bitcoin is facing a significant hurdle in breaking its all-time high, which 10x Research attributes to a notable slowdown in stablecoin minting following the Bitcoin halving event. Bitcoin Market Dynamics: - Current Range: Bitcoin is currently near the top of its trading range and is struggling to break through its previous all-time high. - Bitcoin Halving Impact: The halving event on April 20 has led to a significant slowdown in the minting of stablecoins, impeding Bitcoin's upward momentum. Stablecoin Trends: - Stablecoin Minting Decline: There has been a marked decrease in the issuance of new stablecoins post-halving. - Large Wallet Holding Decline: The number of wallets containing more than $10 million in stablecoins has also declined, indicating reduced liquidity inflows into the Bitcoin market. Exchange Withdrawals: - Significant Withdrawals: Over the past month, approximately $6.75 billion worth of Bitcoin (about 97,000 BTC, nearing 100,000 BTC) was withdrawn from exchanges. - Affected Exchanges: Major withdrawals were observed from U.S.-focused exchanges, including Kraken (down 55,000 BTC or $3.8 billion) and Coinbase (down 24,000 BTC or $1.7 billion). The reduced minting of stablecoins and the decline in large stablecoin wallet holdings suggest that the liquidity available for purchasing Bitcoin has decreased, constraining demand and price growth. The significant withdrawal of Bitcoin from exchanges further indicates that investors may be moving their assets to cold storage, possibly reflecting a cautious or long-term holding strategy rather than immediate trading. Bitcoin's struggle to break through its all-time high can be attributed to several factors, including the post-halving slowdown in stablecoin minting and substantial withdrawals from major exchanges. As these factors contribute to reduced liquidity and trading volume, Bitcoin's path to reaching new price levels faces substantial challenges. Market participants will need to closely monitor stablecoin trends and exchange flows to gauge future price movements.

The unexpected May jobs report has significantly altered investor expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, making the policy direction more complex, according to Jinshi. This development comes as a surprise to many who believed in the likelihood of rate cuts driving U.S. stock indexes to new highs. Economic and Market Reactions: - Interest Rate Cut Speculation: Investors had anticipated that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates this year, a premise that bolstered large-cap stocks and technology-focused U.S. stock indexes to reach new highs in June. - May Jobs Report Impact: The unexpected jobs report for May has challenged the notion of forthcoming rate cuts, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Expert Opinions: - Jeffrey Cleveland (Payden & Rygel): He suggests that if economic growth continues and a recession is avoided, stock markets could continue their upward trajectory, potentially hitting record highs over the next 6 to 12 months. He also notes that holding Treasury bonds could remain favorable if the Fed holds off on rate cuts while inflation stays elevated. - Sean Snaith (Analyst): He asserts that the unexpected jobs report for May is not favorable for the Federal Reserve and undermines any expectations for a rate cut this year. The May jobs report has introduced uncertainty into the financial markets, impacting investor sentiment and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future moves. The strong labor market data implies that the economy might not need the stimulus of a rate cut, while robust employment figures could keep inflationary pressures high, complicating the Fed's policy stance. Strategic Implications For Investors: - Stock Market Prospects: A continued strong economy without a recession may fuel further stock market gains. Investors should watch economic indicators closely to gauge the likelihood of new record highs. - Treasury Bonds: If the Fed refrains from cutting rates amidst high inflation, the relative attractiveness of holding Treasury bonds might improve as they provide a safe haven with stable returns. For Policymakers: - Policy Complications: The Federal Reserve faces a challenging environment where strong employment data and persistent inflation could limit the scope for rate cuts. Policymakers will need to balance the dual objectives of fostering economic growth and controlling inflation. The unforeseen strength in the May jobs report has upended previous assumptions about the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, adding complexity to the policy outlook.