First of all, if you haven't read it yet, I definitely recommend you to take a look at my article below for my views on both $ETH and #altseason . It is very important to look at recent events from a broader perspective and make this analysis more meaningful!
👉 TOTAL2 Market Cap and ETH After The Largest Liquidation of 2025, What about Altseason?

While following up my latest ETH analysis, I made the following comment and said that if the part I circled in pink remains as a wick on Daily close, I expect it to go down to the triangle lower support, that is, the channel bottom.

ETH Analysis - 31 Jan

I look at whether the "candle body closing" will remain above or below the resistance at the daily close. If it closes below and the upper part remains as a wick, I'd follow 4H and first wait for the 3,280-3,215 range, and if it don't hold, I'd wait for the range bottom.

That's what happened, but of course we didn't know that they would then carry out the largest liquidation operation in crypto history in terms of quantity, if not proportionally.

Although we are still holding on to critical supports regarding this event, I mentioned that there are two things that bother me. I talked about the first one in the #TOTAL and $BTC analysis below, so I will not repeat it. If you want, you can check out my article below:
👉 Current Outlook for the Crypto TOTAL Market Cap After The Largest Liquidation of 2025

👀 As for the second issue:
The green box you see on the chart was the upper band of the channel we accumulated for 3 months before the last rise, and in my past analyses I explained for weeks that this had to be breached in order for the real rise to begin. It was also difficult to break, but it upset me that it was broken so easily in this decline.

The reason why it is still below this level on the daily is actually the same reason. I would expect that this top of the 3-month accumulation channel, which has worked as resistance many times, should work as support at least for a while during the retest phase, first become an S-R flip zone and create a bounce, and then break if it cannot withstand the pressure.

Now, every time spent under this green box is a loss and does not have any importance for the good of general structure. If we have not seen a correction in the form of a V bounce after deep declines, I have said in my other analyses that the newly formed accumulation channels should be followed (Wyckoff Accumulation). Therefore, our only expectation in the short term should be to leave the range created by breaking the accumulation here upwards.

If the range breaks downwards, it can be dangerous, I have already pointed out the key levels and made my warning in the TOTAL2 analysis. Now let's look at the same important level on the ETH chart:

ETH has an upward trend that I have shared before on the weekly and has been going on for about 1000 days. In this big decline, the below this trend support line was wicked on the weekly and the closing was made on it.

If these key levels I mentioned on the Daily are broken, as you can guess, this trend support may also be in danger and the wicked horizontal support (the bottom green box) may come to the target again. This can unfortunately cause much deeper destruction for all altcoins, not just ETH.

💥 Therefore, I repeat that not only ETH and its ecosystem, but the fate of the entire altseason depends on this (if you believe in the cycle like me and still have this expectation).

👀 I recommend you to read the analyzes I gave above again and for the last time because it is really important and I want it to reach as many people as possible. Apart from the fact that it will ease my conscience, it really has no profit for me.

👉 TOTAL2 Market Cap and ETH After The Largest Liquidation of 2025, What about Altseason?

If ETH and ETHBTC are going to reverse from these levels and start the cyclical movement we expect and this will be the starting whistle of the altseason, these levels are technically in a position to allow this. If there is going to be that expectation, that start should be here, exactly here!

⭐ What would be good to follow in the short term?

👉 If the lowest red box in the range of 3,050 - 3,140 cannot be broken, a potential rise up to this level will be evaluated as a retest of the decline, and the middle and then the bottom end of the daily wick below will be the targets again. If this level is broken and we see a close with a candle body above it, we can breathe easy for a while, but we will still have tough resistances.

👉 The middle red box level in the range of 3,515 - 3,580 is the middle level of the daily re-accumulation range and is also an important region that has worked as an S-R flip zone. We want this level to be passed with voluminous candles.

👉 In the last stage, there is already a band of 4,000 - 4,100, which acts as the Great Wall of China, and I think that breaking this place is even more important than breaking ETH's ATH.

We will follow step by step and continue the analysis. I don't expect all of this to happen at once, it could happen over time with local re-accumulations, but as long as the key levels I've mentioned below are not broken in the high time frame. 🙏

I hope it will be useful...

Between February 1-3, 2025, the largest liquidation event in crypto history occurred in terms of quantity, if not proportionally.

I know, many of our friends only follow the price of their own coins/tokens, but it is difficult to make predictions about our own assets without understanding the general outlook and direction of the market and liquidity.

Now let's look at the general outlook. 👀

👉 #TOTAL

There is no problem on the weekly view. The previous peak has been retested and the rising trend is maintained. Although the $2.29T level is the first support below the trend, of course we do not want the market, which has been in sidelines for a long time, to make deeper corrections and become even more annoying.

On the daily chart, we are watching the accumulation movement in the range between the upper red box and the lower green box. In the last decline, the liquidation of the range bottom was swept, including the liquidation block that I showed with the blue semicircle, and it entered the range by bouncing back above the green box. The lower limit of the green box also corresponds to almost 50% of the wick of the daily decline candle, and is important in this respect.

Normally, if we do not see an immediate recovery with a big V bounce after such deep declines, first the middle of the wick, then the lowest end of the wick can be targeted again. It is important to follow the course here. Staying above the green box first targets the green box in the middle, then the red box above, but if we are going to see another liquidation event beforehand, it is important to follow the levels I marked on the wick and not to see a daily candle closing below $2.80T.

The biggest issue that bothered me in this decline was that $BTC remained limited to the decline side along with the market in general and didn't wicked the lower part that I have been referring to as a garbage liquidation block for weeks. Therefore, the decline remained largely an operation on the $ETH and #altcoins side.

Also, if $BTC cannot break this large accumulation area that I have put in this gray box and make a new ATH, altcoins that are already suffering enough would get even worse in a movement that can be seen towards this liquidation block below. Because there is a serious percentage decrease margin here and this area does not offer good price action and cannot be considered as a serious support, and if the support here does not work, there is a deep cliff to the previous peak level. Anyway, I do not want to talk about these for now.

I hope this scenario does not happen and the liquidations at lower levels are left for another spring or the next bear season. Because we are at important levels for the #altseason we desire. For this, do not forget to take a look at the #TOTAL2 , ETHBTC and other analyses that I will publish later.