Приветствую друзья и подписчики.
Сегодня немного коснемся математики...
Часто, многие предлагают купить тот Коин или другой. Он вот вот полетит на луну, - они говорят )) Но после полета все монеты ведут себя примерно одинаково и имеют свою волатильность. Вот об этом немного подробнее.
Как понять и выбрать на какой монете лучше всего торговать постоянно?
В предыдущей статье Куда вложить 1000 долларов, я вам показал для примера несколько высокодоходных монет. Давайте вместе с Вами посчитаем их доходность... и заодно посмотрим на еще несколько монеток.
1. Доходность #LTC
Берем скрины минимума и максимума за какой-нибудь период.
см. скрин, например за 27-28 января 2025г.
Я делаю скрины на телефоне, там удобно подсвечивается минимумы и максимумы. Считать удобнее всего в табличке exel за компом, для точности. Но Быстро прикинуть в уме, без калькулятора, можно и просто смотря на скрин с телефона...
Как считать быстро?
Видим на скрине LTC минимум 105,96, максимум 116,09. Тут все просто, простые числа....

Убираем запятые и оставляем только первые 3-4 цифры нули если есть спереди тоже отбрасываем, вычитаем из максимума минимум => 116-105=9$ - Это волатильность монеты.
Значит если купим по 105$, а продадим по 116$, то за примерно 12-24 часов получим 9$.
Пересчитаем на 1000$ чтобы можно было ее потом сравнить с другими монетами.
На 1000$ можем купить на споте примерно 9,5 монет. Умножаем на доходность за 12 часов => 9,5*9=85,5$ => это 85.5$*100%/1000$=8.55% примерно 8,5% на вложенный капитал.
Смотрим следующую монету...
2. Доходность #FLUX
смотрим скрин

минимум 0,4317, максимум 0,4918 - убираем запятые и оставляем первые 3 цифры => 491-431=60 - Волатильность за 12 часов.
В тысяче 431 "умещается" примерно 2.3 раза, т.е. 2.3*431=991.3, примерно 1000 => 60*2,3=138$ => 13,8%
т.о. Доходность FLUX= 13,8% за 12 часов, 27 января 2025г.
3. Доходность #HMSTR

минимум 0,002378, максимум 0,002692 - убираем запятые и оставляем первые 3 цифры => 269-237=32.
В тысяче 237 "умещается" примерно 4,3 раза, т.е. 4,3*237=1019, примерно 1000 => 32*4,3=137,6$ => 13,7%
т.о. Доходность HMSTR= 13,7% за 12 часов, 27 января 2025г.
4. Доходность #ETC

минимум 24,6, максимум 26,205 - убираем запятые и оставляем первые 3 цифры => 262-246=16.
В тысяче 246 "умещается" примерно 4 раза, т.е. 4*246=984, примерно 1000 => 16*4=64$ => 6,4%
т.о. Доходность ETC= 6,4% за 12 часов, 27 января 2025г.
5. Доходность #ZEC

минимум 40,65, максимум 43,71 - убираем запятые и оставляем первые 3 цифры => 437-406=31.
В тысяче 406 "умещается" примерно 2,5 раза, т.е. 2,5*406=1015, примерно 1000 => 31*2,5=77$ => 7,7%
т.о. Доходность ZEC= 7,7% за 12 часов, 27 января 2025г.
Итак победителем по Доходности оказались FLUX и HMSTR и не смотря на то, кто и что о них думает, тем кто умеет правильно выбирать точку входа и направление движения цены, эти монетки позволяют увеличивать капитал почти в два раза быстрее, по сравнению с монетами из списка выше.
А в следующий разбор смотрите в статье Кто круче? или Доходность ETH, SOL, TRUMP, XRP

The case of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road dark web marketplace, is back in the spotlight, fueled by Elon Musk’s recent public declaration: “Ross will also be freed.” This statement has sent shockwaves across the cryptocurrency and political landscapes, igniting fresh debates about justice, proportional punishment, and the potential for presidential intervention.
Polymarket Predictions: A Sharp Rise in Pardon Odds
Musk’s remarks have had an immediate and dramatic impact on prediction markets. On Polymarket, the likelihood of Ulbricht receiving a pardon surged from 54% to an extraordinary 95%. In addition, bets on Donald Trump granting Ulbricht a pardon within his first 100 days of a potential second term have reached a remarkable 97%. These probabilities are not mere speculation; they reflect a betting volume of over $5 million, underscoring the confidence of both crypto enthusiasts and the public.
Related Cryptocurrencies and Market Impact
Ross Ulbricht’s case is intricately tied to Bitcoin (BTC), the primary cryptocurrency used on the Silk Road platform. Bitcoin’s role in the Silk Road’s rise is often seen as a double-edged sword—showcasing both its revolutionary potential and its challenges.
Bitcoin (BTC): As the currency of choice on Silk Road, BTC has become a symbol of decentralization and financial freedom. Discussions surrounding Ulbricht’s case often reignite interest in Bitcoin's early use cases and its ongoing evolution.Monero (XMR): A privacy-focused cryptocurrency, Monero has often been mentioned in discussions about dark web marketplaces. Although Monero wasn’t used on Silk Road, its rise underscores the demand for privacy-centric solutions.Ethereum (ETH): While not directly linked to Silk Road, Ethereum's role in decentralization and innovation has made it a staple in conversations about blockchain ethics and use cases.Zcash (ZEC): Another privacy-focused coin, Zcash is frequently discussed alongside Monero in debates about the ethical implications of financial privacy.Polymarket (POLY): As the platform where betting on Ulbricht's pardon has surged, Polymarket’s native token and ecosystem could experience increased attention due to the case's prominence.
These coins highlight the broader themes of decentralization, privacy, and the ethical dilemmas surrounding blockchain technology.
A Case That Divides Opinion
Ulbricht, who has been serving a life sentence since 2015, was convicted for creating and operating the Silk Road, a platform that facilitated the exchange of illegal goods using Bitcoin. While some view Ulbricht as a libertarian visionary and pioneer in the crypto space, others argue that his platform enabled dangerous criminal activities.
The campaign for his release has gained significant traction. Over 600,000 signatures on the petition at freeross.org highlight the growing sentiment that his punishment does not fit the crime. Advocates emphasize that the Silk Road was more than just an illicit marketplace—it symbolized the ideals of decentralization and freedom that underpin cryptocurrency.
Elon Musk’s Influence: A Turning Point?
Elon Musk’s social media affirmation has reinvigorated the movement for Ulbricht’s release. Musk’s position as a tech mogul and vocal supporter of Bitcoin gives his statements considerable weight. His advocacy has amplified public discourse, with several experts chiming in:
Nic Carter, a prominent Bitcoin investor, said, “Musk’s support adds credibility to the cause. Ulbricht’s case is emblematic of how governments can overreach in dealing with new technologies.”Katherine Forrest, a former federal judge, countered, “While the sentencing may appear harsh, it’s important to consider the scale of the crimes and the precedent a pardon would set.”
Could Trump Act Soon?
Former President Donald Trump has previously hinted at a willingness to consider Ulbricht’s pardon. Now, with predictions soaring, the possibility appears more plausible than ever. Legal experts suggest that Trump’s return to office could mark a turning point:
Alan Dershowitz, a constitutional lawyer, opined, “Trump has shown an interest in criminal justice reform, and pardoning Ulbricht would align with his past actions to correct perceived injustices.”Sheila Warren, CEO of the Crypto Council for Innovation, added, “A pardon would send a strong message about the evolving perspective on cryptocurrency and its role in modern society.”
Cryptocurrency Community: Divided but Hopeful
Ulbricht’s case has long divided the cryptocurrency community. While many Bitcoin enthusiasts rally behind him as a symbol of freedom and decentralization, others fear that his release could attract unwarranted scrutiny to the industry.
Interestingly, Ulbricht himself has distanced himself from cryptocurrency initiatives, likely to avoid further complications to his case. This restraint has earned him respect among his supporters, who argue that his continued imprisonment does little to deter criminal activities on the dark web.
Looking Ahead: A Catalyst for Change?
As public support for Ulbricht grows, Musk’s advocacy and Trump’s potential intervention could turn the tide. Whether or not Ulbricht receives a pardon, his case continues to highlight broader debates about justice, innovation, and the challenges of navigating uncharted legal territory in the digital age.
The next few months may be pivotal, with the public, experts, and policymakers closely watching for Trump’s next move. If Ross Ulbricht’s journey shifts from a life sentence to liberty, it could become one of the most defining stories of modern justice reform—and a transformative moment for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Monero, and others associated with financial freedom and privacy.
$POL
$ZEC
#TrumpMarketInsights #TRUMPCoinMarketCap #Polygon #zec

一、日线分析：SOL震荡调整，141美元成为重要支撑位
从日线图来看，SOL在经过前期快速反弹至高点后，开始进入震荡调整期。当前价格为141美元，位于MA10（139美元）上方，短期内多头力量略占优势，但上方压力位明显。自10月初以来，SOL价格多次在140美元附近获得支撑，显示此价位具有较强的支撑性。
MACD指标显示，DIF线与DEA线逐渐走平，且绿色动能柱持续缩短，表明空头力量正在衰退，短期内有望展开反弹。若价格能够继续守住141美元，或有望重新测试上方150美元压力。

日线操作建议：
若价格企稳141美元并突破144美元，可轻仓做多，目标看向150美元，止损设置在138美元下方。若价格跌破140美元，短线可能进一步下探135美元支撑，激进者可尝试轻仓做空。
二、四小时线分析：短期趋势回调，警惕142美元阻力
四小时图显示，SOL短期内已从前期高点回调，当前在140-142美元区域震荡整理。短期内多空力量较为均衡，MA10（140美元）与MA30（142美元）形成短期阻力，限制了价格的进一步上行。
MACD指标方面，DIF线与DEA线在零轴下方运行，但红色动能柱开始出现，显示短期内多头力量正在积蓄。若SOL能够突破142美元阻力，或将打开进一步反弹空间，目标看向150美元。

四小时操作建议：
若价格突破142美元，短线可轻仓跟进多单，目标看向148-150美元，止损设置在140美元下方。若价格未能突破142美元并回落至140美元下方，可考虑轻仓做空，目标看向135-138美元区间。
三、一小时线分析：短线低位震荡，多空交织
从一小时图来看，SOL价格在141美元附近震荡，多空力量暂时胶着。MA5和MA10均线呈现粘合状态，表明短线波动幅度较小，市场观望情绪浓厚。MACD指标上，DIF线与DEA线在零轴附近横盘整理，绿色动能柱逐渐缩短，显示空头力量在减弱，但多头尚未形成明显反攻。
若价格继续保持在141美元上方，短线有望测试144美元压力位；反之，若跌破140美元，则有可能向下考验135美元的支撑力度。

一小时操作建议：
若价格企稳141美元上方，可轻仓做多，目标看向144美元，止损设置在139美元下方。若价格跌破140美元，则可尝试轻仓做空，目标看向135美元支撑位。
四、策略总结：141美元为关键支撑，SOL后市能否突破142美元？
总体来看，SOL在经过前期的快速上涨后进入回调整理阶段。当前价格在141美元附近徘徊，日线、四小时线和一小时线均显示出空头力量减弱的迹象，但多头尚未完全占据上风。短期内关注141美元的支撑能否守住，若能企稳并突破142美元，SOL有望迎来一轮反弹，目标看向148-150美元；反之，若跌破140美元，短期或面临进一步下行的压力。
#6万保卫战 #SXP #PSG #zec #syn $DIA $SOL $OM

Zcash (ZEC)：零知识证明与隐私保护的先锋
Zcash，全称ZEC，是首个基于零知识证明（zk-SNARKs）技术的区块链系统，提供了高度隐私的支付解决方案。与比特币类似，Zcash也依赖公有区块链维持去中心化网络，但其区别在于它能够在不泄露交易各方身份和金额的情况下，实现安全的交易验证。
Zcash：区块链中的“HTTPS”
如果把比特币比作区块链世界的HTTP协议，那么Zcash可以被看作是更安全的HTTPS协议。它继承了比特币的去中心化模式和代码结构，但加入了更为复杂的隐私保护机制。Zcash的总量与比特币一样，都是2100万枚，但其独特之处在于交易细节（发送者、接收者、交易金额）均为隐藏，只有拥有查看秘钥的用户才能解密这些信息。
Zcash的隐私机制：透明资金与私有资金
Zcash允许用户选择两种不同的资金形式：透明资金和私有资金。透明资金类似于比特币的公开交易，所有交易细节都可以在区块链上查看。而私有资金则采用了零知识证明技术，保护交易细节的隐私。只有持有查看秘钥的人才能看到这些隐藏的交易数据。

什么是零知识证明？
零知识证明是一种革命性的密码学技术，它允许你在不透露任何具体信息的前提下，向对方证明某个事实的真实性。具体到Zcash，它的零知识证明机制使得交易可以在不暴露发送者、接收者或金额的情况下完成验证。
简单解释一下：
假设张三要向李四证明他拥有某个房间的钥匙，但不想直接把钥匙交给李四。张三可以打开房间，取出房间里唯一的物品给李四看，证明他确实有钥匙。这就类似于零知识证明的工作原理：证明“我知道秘密”而无需透露秘密本身。
在Zcash的应用中，零知识证明被用来验证交易的合法性，同时隐藏交易的所有细节。这使得Zcash能够在保障交易隐私的前提下，维持区块链的去中心化和透明性。
Zcash的诞生：从Zerocoin到Zerocash
Zcash的起源可以追溯到2011年“丝绸之路”事件。为了提升比特币的隐私保护能力，Zooko Wilcox发起了Zerocoin项目。这一项目最初旨在为比特币添加隐私功能，但最终在约翰·霍普金斯大学、麻省理工学院和以色列理工学院等团队的共同努力下，Zerocoin升级为Zerocash协议，最终演变为今天的Zcash。
Zcash采用了“非交互零知识证明”技术（zk-SNARKs），这与Zerocoin的交互式证明机制不同，使得交易不再需要用户之间的交互，进一步提高了效率和隐私性。
总结：Zcash的未来与潜力
Zcash作为隐私保护领域的先锋，凭借其先进的零知识证明技术为用户提供了选择性透明的加密货币交易方式。它不仅保留了比特币的去中心化优势，还解决了加密货币交易隐私保护的问题。
随着区块链隐私需求的日益增加，Zcash正在成为越来越多用户的选择。然而，随着隐私技术的复杂化，使用Zcash的过程中也需要一定的技术了解。投资者和用户在参与之前，最好对其技术和应用场景进行深入研究。
Zcash作为比特币的“隐私强化版”，在未来或将继续在加密货币领域占据重要地位。
#6万保卫战 #SXP #PSG #zec #WING $REZ $SXP $PSG

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