Bitcoin is currently up over 36% for November, which has only been beaten by three other months since October 2021.

What to know:
Bitcoin's 36% rise in November 2024, has only been beaten by three other months since October 2021.The current bitcoin market structure has a similar set up to Q4 2020, which was the start of bitcoin's bull run.
Nov. 30, is the last trading day of the month, so all eyes will be on bitcoin's (BTC) monthly candle. Bitcoin is less than 4% away from the psychological wall of $100,000. While the $9 billion worth of options expiry for bitcoin has just expired, which has sent the token slightly higher on the day to over $96,000.

CoinGlass data shows that November has been one of the strongest months for bitcoin for several years, currently up over 36%, which would be the fourth best performing month since October 2021.

November's rise has only been beaten thrice February 2024 (44%), January 2023 (40%) and October 2021 (40%). November's impressive performance is largely due to the fact that Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election earlier this month.

Yet, bitcoin still has two more days until the official monthly close so there is still time to beat these milestones.

On a quarterly timeframe, bitcoin is currently up 51% on the quarter with December still to come, on average the month of December returns around 5%. Q4 2024 has been the strongest quarter since Q1 which returned 69%.

It seems a matter of when not if, bitcoin breaks past $100,000 while it is on track towards an all-time high monthly close.

Analyst Caleb Franzen believes there is more juice left to squeeze in this current bitcoin bull market.

"BTCUSD monthly chart with the RSI indicator: Bitcoin bull markets often peak with the monthly RSI trading above 90, versus the current level of 75. Historically, we've seen each bull market peak with a lower RSI, illustrated by the descending trend line, Franzen says. The implication is that momentum is not yet "overheated" and that more upside can be squeezed out of this uptrend in the months/quarters ahead".

Similar market structure to Q4 2020
Bitcoin is in a similar market structure to Q4 2020, both periods saw strong green months in October and November, with a correction during the 2020 Thanksgiving period. In the back end of 2020, this was when bitcoin conclusively left behind the psychological barrier of $10,000 and went to $60,000 by April 2021.

Glassnode data shows that when bitcoin is above the short-term holder's realized price (STHRP) it tends to mean bitcoin is in a bull market. In Q4 2020, bitcoin used the STHRP consistently as a support level, as the price continued higher.

An expectation could be that bitcoin continues higher and using the STHRP as a support level mimicking Q4 2020. STHP reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins held outside exchange reserves, which were moved within the last 155 days. These reflect the most probable coins to be spent on any given day.

There is also a growing divergence between the realized price (which reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for the entire coin supply) and the long-term holder realized price (LTHRP) which reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins held outside exchange reserves, which have not moved within the last 155-days. These reflect the least probable coins to be spent on any given day.

A growing divergence tells us that new participants are entering the market while long-term holders are spending or realizing profits.

One very small data point indicates that bitcoin could even hit $100,000 on Nov. 29. Bitcoin first hit $1,000 on Nov. 27, 2013. Four years and one day later, bitcoin first hit $10,000. Could we see $100,000, just seven years and one day later?

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There’s a false narrative that has been doing the rounds for far too long. It’s time to dispel this misguided storyline. Many people within the cryptocurrency industry have mistakenly convinced themselves that Bitcoin’s reduced scalability and slow transaction speeds would be its undoing. If it couldn’t scale, they said, then a better and more efficient chain would take its place. No BTC killer has ever emerged.
Experts were wrong, because they saw Bitcoin’s scaling limitations as a hindrance, rather than part of its design. Now, they have to watch BTC flip silver, approach $2tn MCAP, and become the most significant piece of financial infrastructure since the internet. They saw only the caterpillar, while those with a wider lens saw the butterfly.
The Caterpillar Awakens, Only to Find He is Different
Last year we emerged from the crypto winter, though still stretching, yawning, and slowly coming to terms with the resurgence of the digital asset world. In 2024, however, things have really accelerated, from BTC ETFs and the rise of Layer-2s, to Crypto-AI, BTCFi, Runes, are more.
At the start of 2023, Bitcoin’s DeFi TVL was less than $100m, at the start of 2024 it was just over $300m, in April it hit $1bn, in October it hit $2.6bn, and then recently, in November 2024, it surpassed $4.3bn. The sky is the limit for BTCFi, and one can only expect that the emergence of exciting Dapps and attractive staking opportunities with lucrative yields will only bring more investment as BTC becomes a true DeFi powerhouse.
The Lightning Network was Bitcoin’s first L2 solution, offering two-way payment channels between participants, processing transactions off-chain, and recording final results on the main chain. It proved to be fast, cheap, and good, effectively achieving the Iron Triangle that eludes most operations. In 2024, Babylon and exSat arrived on the scene to further extend Bitcoin’s capabilities by introducing smart contracts, cross-chain interoperability, native asset issuance, and, excitingly, decentralized exchanges (DEXs). The three L2s have all combined to compound the Bitcoin network effect, attracting developers and investors, while transforming Bitcoin from “digital gold”, or a simple store of value, into critical financial infrastructure.
These changes have not been missed by retail and institutional investors alike, as BTC ETFs total over $100bn in value and $BTC approaches $100k. Now, BlackRock, Fidelity, and many of the world’s biggest asset managers have changed their tune, and are now big fans of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin vs Ethereum: Same Fighters, New Arena
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have undergone serious changes in the last 18 months, with both unlocking the rejuvenating potential of Layer-2 development. While Ethereum has also undergone major upgrades, like Dencun and the Merge, Bitcoin’s foundational code remains unchanged, with its permanence being its superpower.

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