🚨Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Hits 0.53: What’s Next for the U.S. Economy? 🚨
The Sahm Rule, a reliable recession predictor, just hit 0.53. Historically, this has always signaled an imminent recession. Here’s a breakdown: - Historical Context 📉 - When the Sahm Rule reaches this level, a recession has always followed. - It’s no longer a question of if, but when the U.S. will enter a recession. - Market Reactions 💹 - According to the Financial Times, financial markets are already feeling the impact. - Investors are showing increased caution as economic signals weaken. - My Perspective 💭 - In my opinion, the U.S. is already in a recession. - Indicators like slowing growth, rising unemployment claims, and reduced consumer confidence suggest we’re already there. - What’s Next? 🤔 - Will the Fed's policies soften the blow, or are we headed for a deeper downturn? - How are you preparing for the potential economic challenges ahead? Let's discuss! Do you think the recession has already started, or is there still hope for a soft landing?
👉🚨 The Biggest Mistake People Make with Memecoins: They look backward, not forward…
Consider $WIF , which did an incredible 1000x+ and reached a $40M market cap (MC). Many thought it was too late to buy, but as we know, it wasn’t. $WIF went on to do another 100x+!
So, if you feel like you’re too late, ask yourself these critical questions:
1. 👀 How many of those who bought early actually held on and still have big bags at those Xs? - The reality: Very few. 99.9% sold at x2-x5. The chances are high that most early investors took profits much earlier, so there’s still room for growth.
2. 💰 Look at the liquidity: - Assess whether whales could have entered earlier, and if they can now. Memecoins often have very little liquidity. If you have significant capital, you’re literally forced to wait until the market cap reaches several tens of millions so that your purchase doesn’t pump the price x2 immediately.
3. 🚀 What’s the potential of this token? - If the target is, say, $300M, does it really matter whether you buy at $100M MC or $40M? A pump to $100M is often just a confirmation of your idea, not the end of the road.
🌍 Don’t forget to zoom out and evaluate the potential**, not how many X’s the memecoin has already done. If you focus on past gains, you’ll miss out on more 100x plays, just like you’ve probably missed many already. 😁
🌐 The Four Pillars of a Robust Blockchain: Scalable, Programmable, and Decentralized
As the blockchain space continues to evolve, it's becoming increasingly clear that not all chains are created equal. To truly advance, blockchains need to excel in four critical areas: scalability, programmability, decentralization, and permissionlessness. However, when evaluating the top 100 chains by market cap, only 13 meet all these criteria. Let's dive into what these pillars mean and which chains make the cut. 🚀 Key Criteria for Blockchain Success - Scalability: - Chains need to handle a large number of transactions per second (TPS). For this article, we've considered those exceeding 1,000 TPS. - Programmability: - This refers to the chain's ability to support smart contracts via a Turing-complete Virtual Machine (VM). - Decentralization: - A truly decentralized chain has formalized on-chain governance, where community members can vote on key decisions. - Permissionlessness: - A binary criterion: either anyone can participate without needing approval, or they can't. ✅ The Chains That Made the Cut Out of the top 100, only 13 chains meet all four criteria: - Solana (SOL) ✅ - Toncoin (TON) ✅ - TRON (TRX) ✅ - Avalanche (AVAX) ✅ - NEAR Protocol (NEAR) ✅ - Internet Computer (ICP) ✅ - Aptos (APT) ✅ - Sui (SUI) ✅ - Fantom (FTM) ✅ - Sei (SEI) ✅ - MultiversX (EGLD) ✅ - EOS ✅ - Tezos (XTZ) ✅ ❌ The Chains That Missed the Mark Surprisingly, many well-known chains did not meet all four criteria: - Bitcoin (BTC) ❌ - Ethereum (ETH) ❌ - Cardano (ADA) ❌ - Ripple (XRP) ❌ - Dogecoin (DOGE) ❌ - Polkadot (DOT) ❌ - Litecoin (LTC) ❌ - Bitcoin Cash (BCH) ❌ - Polygon (MATIC) ❌ - Stellar (XLM) ❌ - Monero (XMR) ❌ - Hedera (HBAR) ❌ - VeChain (VET) ❌ - Arbitrum (ARB) ❌ - Optimism (OP) ❌ - Algorand (ALGO) ❌ - Bitcoin SV (BSV) ❌ - Cosmos (ATOM) ❌ - Zilliqa (ZIL) ❌ 📝 Disclaimers and Considerations - Scalability: The chains marked as scalable can exceed 1k TPS under ideal conditions, which is a basic benchmark for network capacity. - Programmability: Only chains with Turing-complete VMs were considered programmable, allowing for complex smart contracts. - On-Chain Governance: Chains were only marked as decentralized if they have formalized on-chain voting systems, regardless of their current development stage. - Permissionlessness: This is a binary factor; either a chain is permissionless, or it isn’t. 🤔 Why These Criteria Matter - Objective Standards: Without clear benchmarks, the crypto space risks becoming a "sea of narratives" where every project claims uniqueness but can't be directly compared.
- Improvement Over Time: While this analysis may seem harsh, it highlights how far the industry has come and how much further it can go. Chains that didn't meet all criteria can still push for improvements. - Loyalty to Principles: Our commitment should be to the foundational principles of blockchain, not any single project. Diversification, both financially and intellectually, is key to long-term success. 🗣️ Engage and Discuss - Open Dialogue: Disagree with the analysis? Feel free to engage! This discussion is meant to be constructive, guiding the industry towards better standards. 🎉 A Note on Progress - A Positive Outlook: Even though not all chains meet the four criteria, the overall progress in the industry is noteworthy. We’re witnessing the gradual realization of Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision, though perhaps not under the Bitcoin name. This ongoing development offers savvy investors a unique opportunity to align their financial interests with their values. 🌟 Final Thoughts - The Contrarian Advantage: In crypto, sometimes being a contrarian can pay off. By focusing on chains that meet these robust criteria, investors and developers alike can contribute to the growth of a truly decentralized, scalable, and programmable ecosystem. Blockchain technology is still in its infancy, and there's plenty of room for growth. Let's continue to push for improvements where needed and celebrate the progress made so far! #BTC
In My 7 Years in Crypto... These are my 2 most profitable strategies that have stood the test of time, working well in both choppy and trendy markets.
🚀 Momentum ↔️ Mean Reversion (Full Guide Below 👇) Before I dive in... I’ve invested significant time crafting this thread to genuinely help you improve your trading game. If you find it valuable, please take a moment to bookmark, retweet, leave a comment, or simply hit like. Your support encourages me to create more content like this. 🙏 💼 I use 2 strategies to trade altcoin price action: 1. Momentum: For trending altcoins 📈 2. Mean Reversion: For choppy or ranging altcoins 📉 💰 These strategies have helped me make millions in crypto and successfully catch recent pumps on $SOL, $TON, $BTC, and $ETH. Here’s how they work: 1. Momentum Strategy This strategy might contradict what most trading gurus preach, but it’s my primary approach for trading both altcoins and $BTC.
🔑 Key Criteria for Momentum Longs: - Bullish Market Structure 📊 - Moving Averages (MAs) Fanned Out 🧮 - High Volume Breakout 🚀 💡 Example: $SOL was trending upwards, making it a prime candidate for momentum longs at resistance breaks. Stay tuned for my exact Momentum strategy at the end of the thread.
2. Mean Reversion Strategy This is the go-to strategy that’s most commonly taught online, and it’s especially effective in sideways or ranging markets.
🔑 Key Criteria for Mean Reversion Triggers: - Resistance Rejecting 🛑 - Swing Failure Patterns 🔄 - Support Bouncing 🏗️ 💡 Example: $LINK was range-bound recently, offering excellent Mean Reversion opportunities.
⚖️ Pros and Cons: Both strategies are powerful, but there’s no “RIGHT” strategy. The key is to figure out which one aligns with your personality and trading style.
🧠 Pro Tip: Test both strategies on a small account first. This will help you understand your counterparty and build an emotional edge by asking: - "How are momentum traders thinking right now? Are they euphoric?" 🎉 - "How are mean reversion traders thinking right now? Are they panicking?" 😰 To Effectively Play Both Strategies: 1. Identify Market Structure 🔍 2. Determine if the Price is Trending or Choppy 🧭 3. Create Entry and Exit Triggers 🎯 4. Take 30-100 Trades, Journal, Improve, Repeat 📝 💥 Following this approach will position you to catch significant gains in altcoins during the bull market. #Learning #BTC #bitcoin
💬 Question from a Follower: "When will Bitcoin reach a million?"
🔍 Answer: 📈 Massive Investor Inflow: Over recent months, we've seen a dramatic increase in the number of investors flocking to Bitcoin. High-profile figures like Elon Musk and influential communities such as WallStreetBets have had a considerable impact on Bitcoin's market dynamics.
💡 What to Expect: These key players are expected to continue accumulating Bitcoin, which will likely inspire even more individuals to jump on the bandwagon. This surge in demand reduces the overall availability of Bitcoin on the market, which could drive prices up further. As more institutional and retail investors enter the space, we might witness unprecedented market behaviors that could propel Bitcoin to new heights.⚖️ The Economist's Perspective: - From an economic standpoint, predicting the exact trajectory of Bitcoin's price is challenging. Its rise and potential decline are subject to numerous unpredictable factors, ranging from market sentiment to regulatory changes. 💡 Key Advice: Given the inherent volatility and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market, it's crucial to invest only what you can afford to lose. Cryptocurrencies are known for their massive potential rewards, but they come with equally significant risks. Always ensure that your investment decisions are informed by a thorough understanding of these risks, and be prepared for the market’s inherent fluctuations. 💰 Potential Future Value: - While predicting when Bitcoin will reach a million dollars is speculative, the possibility of it reaching half a million USD seems more tangible given current trends. However, the path to such valuations is uncertain, and it will depend on various market drivers, including continued institutional interest, regulatory developments, and broader adoption. The journey to these milestones will likely be filled with volatility, but for those who believe in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, it’s a journey worth watching. #BTC
In the fast-evolving world of blockchain, only a handful of chains truly stand out by meeting four critical criteria: scalability, programmability, decentralization, and permissionlessness.
Out of the top 100 chains, only 13 meet these criteria: $SOL , $TON , TRX, AVAX, NEAR, ICP, APT, SUI, FTM, SEI, EGLD, EOS, and XTZ. These chains not only handle over 1k TPS but also support smart contracts via Turing-complete VMs, have formal on-chain governance, and operate without permission barriers.
However, many popular chains, including $BTC , ETH, ADA, XRP, and MATIC, fail to check all the boxes. This isn't just a critique—it's a call to action. Chains that didn't make the cut have significant room for improvement.
While some may be frustrated by this objective evaluation, it underscores the need for clear standards in the industry. We must prioritize principles over loyalty to any one project. Diversification, both in thought and investment, is essential for navigating the "sea of narratives" that often clouds the crypto space.
Ultimately, the evolution of these chains represents a significant leap forward, proving that Satoshi's vision is alive and well—just perhaps not under the Bitcoin name. 🚀
When Vitalik posted about Solana, it was at $8. It later skyrocketed to $195. 🚀
Recently, Vitalik posted about Interoperability. Put 2+2 together… 🤔 The main thesis behind it 🧵👇
The Challenge - Finding a good narrative, like interoperability, is just half the battle. - The real challenge lies in finding the right project that fits this narrative. The Bet - Vitalik's focus on interoperability highlights a critical issue that needs addressing. - Enter @MetisL2 and its gem: @MaiaDAOEco. - A community-driven ecosystem of open-source components and decentralized protocols, live since 2022.
Ecosystem Highlights - Hermes: Omnichain AMM and Yield & Liquidity Marketplace (YLM). - TALOS: Automated Liquidity Omnichain Strategies. - Maia: Decentralized Strategy Vaults. - Ulysses: Omnichain Liquidity Protocol. Hermes V2: Not Just Another Fork
- Hermes V2 operates as a 3,3 DEX, inspired by Andre Cronje’s Solidly model but with its unique features. - Draws from Curve’s vote-escrow model and Olympus DAO’s (3,3) bonding mechanism. - Expansion plans: Moving to Arbitrum and going cross-chain with LayerZero tech.
What’s New in V2? - Permanent Locks with Liquid Positions: Lock tokens indefinitely while maintaining liquidity. - Deposit-Based Tokenized Vault: A simplified ERC4626 vault that eliminates weekly rebases and increases the token burn rate. Additional V2 Features - Low-cost, near zero-slippage trades for both correlated and volatile assets. - Bribes & Rewards: LPs receive token emissions based on veHermes votes, earning between 40%-100%. - Emission Incentives: Enhancing rewards for liquidity providers. Revamped Tokenomics - V2 introduces a tri-token system: - bH-V: Governance and voting. - bH-G: Collecting bribes and fees. - bH-B: Boosting rewards for liquidity providers. Upcoming Campaign - @HermesOmnichain has launched an incentivized campaign on Zealy. - Ends on September 8th. Don’t miss out! Conclusion - @MaiaDAOEco has become a powerhouse within the @MetisL2 ecosystem, particularly through @HermesOmnichain. - I’m excited to see how @VitalikButerin will drive the interoperability narrative forward. 🌐
No Other Cryptocurrency Has Received Clarity From Both FinCEN and the SEC Regarding Its Regulatory Status.💥🇺🇸
In 2015 #XRP Was Clearly Defined As "Virtual Currency" By Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).
In 2023 XRP Received Legal Judgment Against The SEC Stating The Token Itself "Is Not A Security" Under Federal Law, Making This Token A Special Case In The United States Crypto Landscape.
FinCEN Civil Penalty and Settlement:
Fine: FinCEN assessed a $700,000 civil money penalty against Ripple Labs and XRP II for violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA).
Settlement: Ripple Labs also settled with the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Northern District of California (USAO-NDCA) by forfeiting $450,000. This forfeiture partially satisfied FinCEN's penalty, leaving Ripple to pay the remaining $250,000 to FinCEN.
• $ETH — Risk/Reward looks great here • $SOL — Will probably outperform ETH • $PENDLE — V3 Update will be epic • $BANANA — High conviction 6-month • $PIRATE — Strong rebond gives me hopes • $BONK — Bullish despite unlocks • $WIF — Bullish but depends on Solana • $BILLY — Got rekt, could come back • $ONDO — Looks very interesting here • $TAO — Almost 2x from the low • $RENDER — More and more competition
I Made $1.5 Million in 6 Months with Just Two Low-Cap Gems 💰
How? I tracked insider wallets and bought alongside them. Whales will hate me for sharing their secrets for free... 👇🧵
🔍 Understanding Insiders You've probably heard a lot about insiders, but rarely does anyone explain how to capitalize on them effectively. Today, I'm going to introduce you to powerful tools that will help you identify whale wallets and their trades using on-chain analysis. Step 1: Find Insider/Whale Wallets ▶️ Use @dexscreener for this task. Look for coins spiking in value over the past week. ➬ Go to: dexscreener.com ➬ Navigate to the "Gainers & Losers" tab ➬ Select the time period (24h or 6h) ➬ Apply additional filters if you want
Here are my filters: - Min liquidity: $250,000 - Min 24H transactions: 300 - Min 24H sells: 30 - Min 24H volume: $100,000 If you notice in the Top Traders tab that some wallets bought very early and then made huge profits, these guys could be insiders. Only those connected to the team could snipe the launch seconds after the token went live.
Step 2: Check Wallets with alphatracexyz This app is essential as it allows you to uncover wallet trading stats, helping you filter out bad wallets from good ones. Focus on wallets with: - Win rate above 65% - Profit over $500k
Step 3: Build Your Watchlist To do this, you can use: 1. etherdrops_bot ➬ Activate the bot: t.me/etherdrops_bot ➬ Add every profitable wallet you discover
2. dexscreener ➬ Visit: dexscreener.com/portfolio ➬ Add every profitable wallet you discover
Step 4: Set Alerts Set alerts to stay informed about every move the insider or whale makes. I suggest setting alerts for your top 5 wallets.
Key Point 👇 When an alert pops up, act fast. Immediately check these two key things after an insider buys a new token: ➬ Twitter ➬ Market Cap Market Cap Check it again at @dexscreener. A token with a market cap of less than $5M that hasn't been pumped much could become an insider gem. Yes, there is a high chance of getting rugged, but with higher risk comes higher reward. Always consider the risk/reward ratio. Twitter For Twitter, use these tools: · @TweetScout_io · @Twiter_score Just insert the project's handle to observe its full Twitter stats and see which influencers follow it. If Twitter looks solid with supporters on board, it's time to make a move and consider buying a token. But remember, if Twitter doesn't look promising, keep looking. Sometimes the best opportunities lie unnoticed for a few weeks while the big whales are accumulating tokens. 🔒 Closing Thoughts Since my account has grown a lot, I can’t share 100x gems in public anymore, so I decided to make my Telegram channel private. But you still have a little time to join before I close it for good.