Emergency #BTC Update ‼️

An oversight on my part regarding the recent $BTC rally from $43K to $48K. The double doji's closure over the 50SMA was a clear indicator I overlooked.

For the Bulls

Momentum with the SMI still has room to rise, a key indicator for potential upward movement in $BTC.

No violation of weekly moving averages even during the low $40K's, indicating resilience.

Definitively bullish candle close, showcasing strength in the recent move.

RSI crossed the RSI MA, although bearish divergence remains, caution is advised until a new weekly print.

For the Bears

$BTC failed to close over the .618, currently testing it.

The weekly ETF wick at $49.1-$49.2K continues to act as a ceiling.

Bearish divergence in RSI needs elimination for a clearer outlook.

Bottom Line

While my recent forecast missed the mark, my overarching thesis holds strong. "The Wall," represented by the .618 - .786 Fibonacci retrace levels from Bitcoin's prior peak, remains a significant barrier for new ATHs.

This stance, though not popular, has been my consistent view for months. Liquidity concerns in March, with the removal of the Reverse Repo & BTFP, add complexity.

While bullish sentiment may reign momentarily, my macro view of $BTC remains steadfast. Emotions aside, we navigate the charts with discipline.