$BTC $XRP $ETH #OnChainLendingTrend

1. Technical Analysis

Current Downtrend

• BTC is trading significantly below its long-term moving averages (EMA 99, EMA 200), signaling a sustained bearish trend.

• Support levels are weakening (e.g., $91,747 is barely holding), which suggests a test of lower levels like $90,000-$89,000 is imminent if selling pressure persists.

Critical Support Zones

• $91,000-$90,000: Immediate zone to watch for a breakdown. A breach below could accelerate selling.

• $88,000-$89,000: Historically significant support zone. Strong buyer interest may emerge here.

• $85,000: If BTC reaches this level, it would align with a high bearish momentum zone.

Indicators Suggesting Further Decline

• RSI: Still hovering in the 30-40 range, indicating oversold conditions but with room for more downside.

• MACD: Remains negative, showing no immediate reversal signs.

• Volume: Consistent selling volume indicates bearish control.

2. Historical Analysis

BTC has historically seen deep corrections during bear markets:

• 2018 Bear Market: A 85% drop from all-time highs.

• 2022 Bear Market: Over 70% correction.

If this pattern repeats, a drop from the $100,000-$105,000 region to $85,000 would represent a correction of around 15%-20%, aligning with historical pullbacks.

3. On-Chain Data

• Whale Activity: Large BTC holders have been offloading in recent months, increasing the supply pressure.

• Exchange Reserves: Rising BTC deposits on exchanges indicate selling intent.

• Mining Difficulty: Rising costs and declining prices could lead to miner capitulation, adding downward pressure.

4. Broader Market Factors

• Macroeconomic Environment: Rising interest rates and risk-off sentiment in global markets may push BTC lower.

• Altcoin Liquidity: A collapse in altcoin markets could lead to BTC dominance but drag its price lower due to market-wide liquidation.

Probability of BTC Reaching $85,000

Scenario 1: Breakdown Below $91,000

• A confirmed breach of $91,000 would likely lead to cascading sell-offs, testing $88,000-$89,000, and potentially pushing toward $85,000.

Scenario 2: Relief Rally

• If BTC manages to reclaim $93,000-$94,000, the likelihood of testing $85,000 diminishes in the short term. However, failure to break above $94,000 would leave the downtrend intact.

Key Catalysts for $85,000

• Sharp increase in exchange deposits or whale selling.

• Broader financial market collapse or black-swan event.

• Weak buying interest at critical support zones like $90,000 or $89,000.

Next Steps

To confirm a move toward $85,000:

1. Monitor Support at $91,000: Watch for volume and momentum at this level.

2. Look for RSI Divergence: If RSI remains oversold without divergence, further downside is likely.

3. Track Broader Market Sentiment: Correlation with NASDAQ or S&P500 could add pressure.

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