Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Predicts Crypto Market Correction in March
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has revised his prediction for the cryptocurrency market, stating that it will experience a “severe” correction in mid-March. In his latest essay, Hayes draws parallels between the imperiled skiing conditions in Japan due to the “sasa” bamboo and the crypto market’s potential downturn.
A Change in Prediction: From “Trump Dump” to Dollar Liquidity
Initially, Hayes predicted a “Trump dump” in the crypto market, expecting painful sell-offs when Donald Trump took office. However, he now believes this correction has already occurred, from mid-December to the end of the year. Instead, Hayes suggests that increasing dollar liquidity in the first quarter of 2025 could offset disappointment in White House policy and create “positive momentum” for crypto.
The Impact of Dollar Liquidity on Crypto Markets
According to Hayes, the potential increase of up to $612 billion in dollar liquidity in the first quarter could counterbalance the letdown from Trump’s proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation. This positive dollar liquidity environment could lead to a surge in crypto prices, making late March an ideal time to sell and take profits.
Trading Strategy: A Shift to DeSci “Shitcoins”
As the chief investment officer of Maelstrom, Hayes plans to encourage risk-takers to invest in decentralized science (DeSci) “shitcoins.” He admits that this marks a U-turn in his previous predictions, but emphasizes the importance of adapting to new information and changing opinions to capitalize on opportunities.
The Importance of Adapting to Changing Market Conditions
Hayes acknowledges that his prediction accuracy rate is relatively low, around 25% in the past 12 months. However, he believes that it’s essential to be open to new information and adjust strategies, even if it means changing one’s opinions. By doing so, investors can increase their chances of success and navigate the ever-changing crypto market landscape.
Conclusion
In summary, Arthur Hayes predicts a severe correction in the crypto market in mid-March, driven by increasing dollar liquidity and potential disappointment in White House policy. As a trader, he plans to shift his strategy to investing in DeSci “shitcoins” and encourages others to adapt to changing market conditions. While his prediction accuracy rate may be low, Hayes emphasizes the importance of being open to new information and strategies to achieve success in the crypto market.
Source: Decrypt.co
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