The cryptocurrency market has entered the new year with a continuation of the downward momentum that began in December. Bitcoin ($BTC ) has retraced from its all-time high of $108,000 and is currently trading above $93,000.
Amid this broader bearish trend, Arweave ($AR )—a decentralized permanent storage token—has also faced significant selling pressure. AR has declined 33% over the past month and is trading at $16.52 at the time of writing
Despite the bearish trend, technical indicators suggest that AR might be poised for a bullish reversal. Analysts have identified a critical technical setup that could determine AR’s price direction in the near term.
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Technical Analysis: Key Insights
Arweave (AR) is currently testing the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. This technical formation often precedes substantial price movements.
The $15.00-$16.50 range has emerged as a critical support zone, and a strong bounce from this level could pave the way for renewed bullish momentum.
Resistance Levels to Watch:
1. $22.00: The first resistance level, signaling the onset of upward momentum.
2. $29.00-$35.50: Mid-range targets that could attract increased buying pressure.
3. $46.50: A key resistance level, marking the potential breakout point to new highs.
Additionally, the 100-day moving average (MA 100) is a crucial indicator to monitor. A breakout above this level would confirm a trend reversal and further bolster a bullish outlook.
Supporting the possibility of a rebound, trading volume is showing subtle increases, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold territory, signaling growing buying interest.
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Possible Scenarios
Bullish Case
A successful bounce from the $15.00-$16.50 support zone could drive AR toward its key resistance levels: $22.00, $29.00, $35.50, and $46.50.
A breakout above $46.50 would likely confirm a bullish trend, potentially leading to significant upward movement.
Bearish Case
If AR fails to maintain support in the $15.00-$16.50 range, a deeper correction may follow, potentially pushing prices toward lower psychological levels around $13.00.
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Conclusion: Will a Bounce Trigger a Breakout?
As Arweave (AR) tests the critical support zone within a symmetrical triangle pattern, the potential for a bounce raises optimism for a bullish breakout. Should the $15.00-$16.50 support hold, AR could aim for key resistance levels, with a breakout above $46.50 signaling the start of a new upward trend.
However, traders should exercise caution. A failure to hold support might result in further downside, with AR potentially revisiting lower levels around $13.00. The coming days are likely to be pivotal for determining AR’s next move, and traders are advised
to closely monitor price action and technical indicators.
